Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 292326
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
626 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT AT 2 PM CDT SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND
NORTHERN IA AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR MADISON WI TO WEBSTER CITY IA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPS MAINLY AROUND 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S...
WHILE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND TEMPS COOL OFF THROUGH THE 60S WITH 50S
AND 40S FROM ND THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MN AND WI. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOW BAND OF SHOWERS POST-FRONTAL SAGGING THROUGH NORTHERN
LAKE MI AND CENTRAL WI WITHIN ZONE OF PVA ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE
DIVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE DIVING SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE CWA THIS
EVE EXITING FAR SOUTH OVRNGT. FRONT SHOULD PASS MAINLY DRY WITH
ONLY VERY SMALL CHC FOR ISOLD SHOWER WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CU FIELD
LATE THIS AFTN NORTHEAST IA AND CONTINUED INTO EARLY THIS EVE
FAR NORTHERN IL AS PVA ATTENDANT TO GREAT LAKE SHORTWAVE SKIRTS
MOSTLY NORTHEAST. CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM COOLEST FAR NORTH (MID 40S) TO
WARMEST FAR SOUTH (MID 50S). DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS CANT RULE
OUT SOME LOWER 40S FAR NORTH.

TUE WILL BE DRY AND COOLER ON EASTELRY WINDS... AND WILL FEATURE
CLOUDS POST-FRONTAL WHICH MAY GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MORE BREAKS
AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT WITH INVERSION AND BEING NEARLY
OCTOBER CANT RULE OUT INVERSION HOLDING CLOUDS ALL DAY SOME AREAS.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR CHALLENGING HIGH TEMP FCST AND AS CLOUD TRENDS
GO... SO GO THE TEMPS. FOR NOW BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
ALL AREAS AND WENT WITH GENERAL RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTHEAST TO
MID 70S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY EVENING WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOISTURE AND FORCING SLOWLY BEGINS MOVING INTO
THE AREA BUT SHOULD GET NO FURTHER EAST THAN A KPDC AND KIRK LINE
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY
SLOW AND SHOULD STILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM KDBQ TO KIRK LINE BY
MID DAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING MORE QUICKLY EAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS
MOVING INTO THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE MAIN LOW OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BE SLOW
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SEEN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE AND SLOWLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND CHILLY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
LOWS IN THE MID 30S MAY OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO BUT STILL A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS
THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH VERY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AROUND 8 TO 10 KTS. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A VERY LOW RISK FOR A SHOWER...BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS. OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF MVFR
STRATUS IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY 1500 TO 2500 FT STRATUS...ARRIVING FROM
WISCONSIN AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING. THIS STRATUS SHOULD LIFT AND
BREAK UP LATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH MORE VFR/CLEAR WEATHER TO
FOLLOW THAT TIME.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN






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