Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 150551
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1151 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

...06z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Low pressure was over the northern Great Lakes producing brisk
northwest winds gusting up to 30 mph across the dvn cwa this
afternoon. Despite a veil of thin cirrus, skies have still been
mostly sunny for much of the day. Afternoon temperatures have
risen higher than guidance, similar to the past several days. This
is due to the bare ground which is drying out more and more each
day, along with strengthening mid February sun to help boost
temperatures. 3 pm readings ranged from the mid 40s north to lower
50s south.

Visible satellite indicated stratocumulus spreading southeast
across WI and into se MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Above normal temperatures and dry in the short term.

Tonight: Other than thin cirrus skies will be mostly clear this
evening, followed by partly to mostly cloudy skies in our northern
cwa as the stratocumulus spreads in from the north after midnight.
Gusty northwest winds will diminish this evening to about 10 to 15
mph overnight, and will usher cooler temperatures into the area.
Minimum temperatures should range from the lower 20s north to the
mid 20s south.

Wednesday: A cooler day is expected compared to today. However, guidance
has come in several degrees warmer than previous runs as the deep
upper level trough in the northeast United States shifts a bit
farther east. This puts the dvn cwa on the western fringe of the
trough with the really cold air well to our east. Skies should
range from partly to mostly cloudy north to mostly sunny south.
This will be reflected in afternoon high temperatures, with the
mid to upper 30s north to the mid 40s south. Northwest winds
should be about 10 to 15 mph for much of the day, as high pressure
builds into the mid MS Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Wednesday Night into Monday:

500mb height rises around 6 mb/12 hr beginning early in this period,
and 850mb temps warming to 10-12 C, signal a large scale ridge
setting up over the Central U.S. Forecast high temperatures are well
above mid February normals, ranging from near 60 F across the
northern CWA to the mid/upper 60s further south which are getting
close to record territory. Went above the Superblend and closer to
the raw ECMWF and the NationalBlend to account for effects of solar
insolation on dry air over a region with no snow cover.

Thursday is an exception with nearly a 20 F temp range in forecast
highs from NE to SW through the CWA (40 to 60 F).

Monday Afternoon through Monday Night:

Models in agreement tracking a shortwave and cold front through the
Upper Mississippi Valley, along with a chance for rain. GFS/ECMWF
showing strong low-level moisture advection and sfc dewpoints rising
into the 50s. Did not add thunder to the forecast yet, but may have
to in future updates. Uttech

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Vfr conditions expected to dominate the taf cycle with gusty NW winds
12-25 kts diminishing by mid to late PM. Cold air aloft and
heating should aid in sct-bkn stratocu with mainly vfr bases/cigs
with a low chance for 1-3 hr period of mvfr cigs mainly at DBQ and
possibly MLI mid to late AM. Otherwise, some high and eventual mid
clouds the rest of the taf cycle. Winds to go calm to light S
winds Wed evening as high pressure passes quickly and a warm front
develops.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...McClure



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