000
FXUS63 KDVN 010549
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1149 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

HAVE LOWERED MINS REST OF TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING VORT MAX HAS RESULTED IN
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AND ALLOWED TEMPS TO PLUMMET DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS MANY AREAS WITH LIGHT WINDS. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
SECONDARY WAVE APPROACHING FROM KS LOOKS TO CONTINUE MAINLY LIGHT TO
BRIEF BOUTS OF MODERATE SNOW REST OF TNGT INTO SUNDAY AM PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST IA...NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL. PUBLIC REPORT
ALREADY OF AN INCH IN KAHOKA MO... AND BELIEVE A FEW SPOTS COULD
SEE AROUND 2 INCHES OF ACCUM ESPECIALLY NEAR THE HWY 136 CORRIDOR
WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO HALF INCH OR LESS NEAR HWY 34. UPDATED
ZFP/GRIDS/PFM SENT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN CENTRAL PLAINS THAT IS A BIT OVERDONE
ON BL MOISTURE AS USUAL BY SOLUTIONS. NOWCAST TOOLS SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW
AND FLURRIES SOUTH OF I-80 AND SPOTTY FLURRIES ALONG I-80 UNTIL MID
TO LATE EVENING. UPSTREAM ENERGY SHOWS CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND NEXT 24
PLUS HOURS WITH NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVING LATE PM SUNDAY THAT WILL
BE SOUTH EVENING SYSTEM...POSSIBLY ENTIRELY SOUTH OF AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE. RISK
IS FOR EVEN LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTH SECTIONS...MANY IF NOT MOST PLACES.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS MANY LOCATIONS MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES
TOO COLD...DUE TO LIMITED RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TONIGHT...RAISED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO AND LOWERED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS
WITH DRY CONDITIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED
FLURRIES. TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE BETWEEN HIGHWAY 30 AND THE
HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR IN IOWA...EAST TO GALESBURG. AN INCH TO VERY ISOLATED
UP TO NEAR 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR ALONG AND MEMPHIS TO KEOKUK TO A MACOMB
ILLINOIS LINE. MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 SHOULD RECEIVE AROUND
A HALF INCH TO POSSIBLY AN INCH. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS.

SUNDAY...CLOUDY WITH POSSIBLY LIGHT SNOW WITH NEXT DISTURBANCE MOSTLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. BEST FORCING SUGGEST ANY MEASURABLE
SNOW WILL BE SOUTH OF THE IOWA AND MISSOURI BORDER FOR LATER SHIFTS.
HIGHS UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT WESTERLY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING
SLIDING ACRS THE REGION FOR A FAIR WX BUT SEASONABLY COLD SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WILL FOCUS ON CHALLENGING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS AND PROBABLY RIGHT
ACRS IA/FAR NORTHERN IL/PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA BY LATE TUE.
STRENGTH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY AIR IN PLACE SUGGEST THAT
THE NEW 12Z RUN ECMWF DELAYING PRECIP ARRIVAL AT THE SFC ACRS MOST
OF THE AREA NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z TUE MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING. BUT
SEASONABLY STRONG WARM MOIST CONVEYOR WILL NOT BE DENIED FLOWING UP
TO THE LEE OF APPROACHING DEVELOPING CYCLONE. FCST SOUNDINGS STILL
SUGGEST PWATS TO INCREASE TO ANYWHERE FROM 0.60 OF AN INCH...TO NEAR
AN INCH FROM 06Z-18Z TUE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL FED BY 40-50+ KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ. THIS IS 170 TO NEAR 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.40..TO EIGHT
TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE BY THE TIME COLD AIR FLUSHES BACK ACRS
THE ARE FROM THE WEST AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS BY TUE EVENING. BUT
INITIAL LIFT GOING INTO SATURATION...AND WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIP/LIQUID...FREEZING AND FROZEN/ WILL THAT QPF FALL AS IS STILL A
CHALLENGING QUESTION ATTM.

 FCST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUGGEST SNOW WITH A SLEET MIX CHANGING OVER
TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SOUTH OF I80 FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 4-5AM
TUE WHEN AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 34 GO TO ALL RAIN WITH SFC
TEMPS/WBZ RISING TO AT LEAST 32 DEGREES. SNOW AND SLEET TO LOOK TO
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR FROM 5 AM THROUGH
8-9 AM WHEN IT SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL RAIN. SOME LIGHT ICE GLAZE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE RAIN TRANSITION. NORTH OF I80 AND ESPECIALLY THE
HWY 34 CORRIDOR...A LONGER DURATION OF SNOW AND SLEET TUE MORNING
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WET SNOW ACCUMS OF AN INCH...THEN SWITCHING OVER
TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET NORTH OF HWY 30 BY LATE MORNING. EVEN THE
FAR NORTH MAY GO TO ALL RAIN BY NOON THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IF THE
CURRENTLY PROGGED STRONG LLVL WAA AND MOISTURE INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW VERIFIES. THUS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO DO NOT SEE LONG
DURATION OF ICING AND A BUILD UP OF A THICK GLAZE. BUT LIKE TH
PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL PROBABLY NEED A
HEADLINE FOR A PASSING WINTRY MIX FROM LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
TUE. MANY DETAILS STILL TO BE HAMMERED OUT AT THIS POINT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY APPROACH A HALF INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WATER RUN OFF ISSUES OVER FROZEN GROUND
ALTHOUGH DEEPER SNOW PACK WILL ACT LIKE A SPONGE. MAY HAVE
PASSING BOUTS OF FOG ON TUE AS WELL WHERE WINDS GO LIGHT
CONVERGENT AROUND PASSING LOW CENTER AND IF THE RAIN CAN LET UP
TO ALLOW IT TO FORM WITH THE MOISTURE OVER LINGERING SNOW COVER. HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH OF HWY 30...MID 30S TO AROUND 40 TO
THE SOUTH. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH ENHANCED INCOMING
COLD CONVEYOR TO SWITCH THE PRECIP BACK TO A RAIN SNOW MIX TO TOP-
DOWN COOLED ALL WET SNOW FROM NW-TO-SE AS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING PROGRESS. BUT EXPECT LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS TUE
EVENING WITH THIS PROCESS. WHAT MAY BE MORE OF AN IMPACT TUE NIGHT
IS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH BRINGING
IN STOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION. WITH WET SURFACES AND STANDING WATER
FROM THE RAIN/SNOW MELT EARLIER IN THE DAY...MAY BE A SCENARIO
WHERE THERE IS A QUICK FREEZE UP FOR BLACK ICE FORMATION WHICH WOULD
IMPACT THE WED MORNING COMMUTE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...YET ANOTHER INFLUX OF COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR THIS PERIOD WITH LOWS WED NIGHT
POSSIBLY DIPPING WELL BELOW ZERO NORTH OF I80...IF ENOUGH SNOW
COVER MAINTAINS THERE MAY BE SOME -5 TO -10 READINGS IN THESE AREAS
BY THU MORNING. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALSO POSSIBLY NEEDED FOR THU
MORNING NORTH OF I80 IF AMBIENT TEMPS CAN GET COLD ENOUGH.

NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AFTER THE MID WEEK COLD DOME EXITS...
FINALLY SOME SIGNS THAT A FLATTENED PATTERN MAY ALLOW A MODERATING
TEMP REGIME ACRS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ORGANIZED PRECIP EVIDENT AT THIS POINT.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AM IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG. PATCHY LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF BRL
TAF SITE THROUGH SUNDAY AM AND THUS LEFT OUT MENTION THOUGH A FEW
FLURRIES ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT ALL SITES. ANTICIPATE CIGS LIFTING
TO HIGH MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR SUNDAY PM WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST LATE PM
INTO EARLY EVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05