Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 261229
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
729 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

SEVERE MCS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN KS AND
WESTERN MO BUT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST WHERE THE HIGHER CAPE AND
MOISTURE WAS LOCATED. TO THE NORTH OF THE BOWING LINE THERE WAS AN
AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
EXTREME SOUTHERN IA AND THIS WAS SPREADING EASTWARD. IN THE
MEANTIME...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE LOCATED IN NORTHERN IA BUT THE
LOW LEVELS WERE QUITE DRY AND MOST OF THIS WAS ALOFT. A COUPLE OF
OBSERVATIONS SITES DID HAVE 10SM -RA. THIS WAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS.

ON THE WEATHER MAP...A NEARLY STATIONARY EAST-WEST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SW KS TO CENTRAL MO AND TO VA. THE
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WAS VEERED INTO MO. HIGH PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. 3 AM TEMPERATURES IN
THE DVN CWA RANGED FROM 60 AT FREEPORT TO 70 AT KEOKUK. READINGS
WERE IN THE COOL 40S AROUND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT THEN
DRY AND COOLER TONIGHT.

TODAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS TAKE THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE MO MCS
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING
THIS IS STRATIFORM TYPE PRECIPITATION THE MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING
THE QPF. THE HEAVY RAIN IS TIED TO THE SEVERE MCS WELL TO OUR SOUTH
WHERE PWATS ARE 2 INCHES. THERE MAY BE A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING
STRIKES BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS IS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. IN
THE NORTHERN CWA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVELS ARE
QUITE DRY UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHEN MOISTENING
OCCURS. THEREFORE I WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR A TIME THIS MORNING
THEN GO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. ASSUMING SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO HAVE ISOLATED
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON (SBCAPES WILL BE ABOUT 500 J/KG).
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE GENERATED BY A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD IN
CHECK DUE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A NORTHEAST WIND. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S. THIS IS ROUGLY 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE.

TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS STRONGLY INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SUBSIDENCE IN IT`S WAKE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER
AIR INTO THE DVN CWA...ON NORTHERLY WINDS. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL END THIS EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS ALMOST
FALL-LIKE WITH A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A BIG RIDGE IN THE
WEST. TIME TO OPEN THE WINDOWS AS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC RAIN
CHANCES AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

SATURDAY...LOOKS TO BE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND BY FAR WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL PROVIDING AMPLE SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
AID OF DRYING ON NORTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY...GENERAL CONSENSUS ON SUNDAY BEING UNSETTLED/WET WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE AMOUNT OF
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL LOOM LARGE IN DETERMINING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...STAGNANT HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN TO FEATURE WESTERN
RIDGE /HEAT DOME/ AND EASTERN TROUGH. THE END RESULT FOR OUR CWA IS A
CONTINUATION OF ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THIS WILL SPELL PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES THERE WILL BE A LOT OF DRY TIME AS WELL.
TRYING TO PIN DOWN THE MORE FAVORABLE PERIODS FOR RAIN CHANCES IS THE MAIN
CHALLENGE GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST
FLOW LARGELY ATTRIBUTED TO POOR RESOLUTION OF THESE LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES.
BLANKETING THE LONG TERM WITH RAIN CHANCES IS THE UNFORTUNATE BY-PRODUCT OF SUCH
A DILEMMA... BUT AGAIN DO ANTICIPATE THERE TO BE MANY DRY HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS
GENERALLY EXPECT PERSISTENCE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S/NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE
50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 728 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

OCNL MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING IN SHOWERS AND FOG THEN VFR CIGS
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY THEN NORTH LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE


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