000
FXUS63 KDVN 270550
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1150 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RADAR/OBS AND REPORTS SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER NW IL CWA HAS
LARGELY DIMINISHED TO VERY SPOTTY ATTIM. ANTICIPATE A RENEWED
ROUND OF VERY LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD FROM WI... AND
AFFECTING FAR NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL IA AND NORTHWEST IL OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS VORT MAX DROP SEWD FROM WI. BEING IN AND OUT
OF ICE IN CLOUDS LOOKS LIKE PCPN WILL BE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW WITH
ALSO SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST IL
FOR VERY MINOR MEASURABLE PCPN POTENTIAL.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

STRONG WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM EXTREME WESTERN WI TO NEAR OTTUMWA
IA AND THEN INTO NORTH TX. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE 20S WHILE TO THE WEST READINGS HAVE SOARED INTO THE 50S IN
CENTRAL/WESTERN IA AND MO AND IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE GREAT
PLAINS.

DOPPLER RADAR/SURFACE OBS WERE INDICATING THE SNOW HAS SHIFTED
INTO SE WI/NE IL WITH AN AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SW WI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING
OTHERWISE MILDER TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NW IL SHOULD END
EARLY THIS EVENING BUT CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
DURING THE NIGHT. OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING
INVERSION AT 900 MB WHICH SHOULD TRAP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW.
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA
WHICH WILL BRING A WARMER NIGHT...COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN NW IL TO AROUND 30
IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

TUESDAY...INVERSION AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS LINGERING
INTO THE MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS SKIES CLOUDY ALL DAY SO THIS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. I WILL FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S
NE TO THE LOWER 40S SW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

TWO MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  THE FIRST IS
A WEATHER PRODUCER THAT BRUSHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND.  THE FIRST EVENT LOOKS TO A RAIN/FZDZ EVENT ACROSS THE AREA
AND THE OTHER A SNOW EVENT THIS WEEKEND.

AFTER A MILD WEEK LAST WEEK AND SNOW THIS PAST WEEKEND...WE HAVE
ANOTHER TASTE OF MILD WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
WINTER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE IN RAPID SUCCESSION
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST ONE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH OF
OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY PM INTO THURSDAY AM.  THIS WILL HELP TO
CONTINUE H85 WAA THROUGH 06Z ON THURSDAY.  WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE WILL BE RA EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z
ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER BEFORE THIS ON THURSDAY AM WE SEE CAA BEGIN AND
A COOLING COLUMN...ESPECIALLY AT THE SURFACE.  WITH MOST OF THE
COLUMN SATURATION OCCURRING AT TEMPS ABOVE -9C...ICE WILL NOT BE
ACTIVE...SO SNOW LOOKS UNLIKELY.  INSTEAD MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT FZDZ WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH ZONES. WITH LOW QPF
AND POPS ONLY A GLACE...0.01 INCHES OF ICE IS FORECAST.  THIS COULD
BE ENOUGH TO ICE UP ROADS...ACROSS THAT AREA.  THE INITIAL SURGE OF
COLD AIR IS TEMPERED ENOUGH THAT TEMPS WILL RISE DIURNALLY TO ABOVE
FREEZING CWA WIDE...MEANING THAT THE GLAZE OF ICE SHOULD MELT BY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.  12Z GUIDANCE DID PULL THIS SYSTEM FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST...SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THIS EVENT TO BE
REFINED FURTHER IN FUTURE EVENTS.

A PERIOD OF NW FLOW THEN DOMINANTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO SATURDAY WHERE TEMPS STAY NEAR FREEZING FOR HIGHS.

A TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO OUR AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO
AS FAR AS TIMING AND LOCATION/STRENGTH OF SURFACE FEATURES.  THE GFS
BRINGS WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH..WHEREAS THE EURO AND
GEM KEEP THE LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH.  REGARDLESS...TEMPS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.  THE SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND BEARS WATCHING THROUGH
THE WEEK.  IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT 00Z EURO AND OTHER PREVIOUS
RUNS OF THE EURO KEPT US DRY AND HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS THIS
SYSTEM...THE GFS HAS DONE THE SAME THING.  SO WE WILL SEE WHAT
HAPPENS WITH THE NEXT FEW RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

CHALLENGING AND LOWER CONFIDENCE CLOUD FORECAST WITH MODELS NOT
HANDLING CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS WELL. IFR CONDITIONS JUST EAST
OF TERMINALS ON COOL SIDE OF DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH... WHILE
SPOTTY MVFR CIGS NEAR MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND MAINLY VFR OVER
WESTERN CWA WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AHEAD OF ANOTHER RIBBON OF
HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS CONSIDERABLE
STRATUS TO OUR NORTH WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW... AND GOING WITH THE
GENERAL IDEA THAT AS FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY IT WILL DRAW
DOWN SOME OF THE STRATUS AND RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY HI-RES ARW MODEL
WHICH IS DOING BEST OF ANY MODEL ON CLOUD DEPICTION. ANY AREAS
THAT MANAGE TO PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT LIKELY TO FILL IN WITH
STRATOCU MID TO LATE AM WITH MVFR CIGS FOR A TIME. CANT ALSO RULE
OUT IFR CIGS SLOSHING BACK INTO DBQ AND MLI ON COOL SIDE OF
INVERTED TROUGH. OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE ON CIG HEIGHTS AND
TRENDS AND FOLLOWED MORE ALONG TRENDS SHOWN IN ARW MODEL AND ATTEMPTED
TO BRING DECREASING CLOUDS AND RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY PM.
WINDS WILL TURN N/NE 5-10 KTS AND THEN E/SE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05