Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 180748
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
248 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING LOCAL WEATHER THIS MORNING WITH
ONE STORM SYSTEM IN THE MID SOUTH HEADING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE. PATCHY WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ARE
HELPING HOLD TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...WE WILL
SEE A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS...IN
ADDITION TO A WARMER START IN MOST AREAS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY WITH MAX TEMPS TODAY REACHING
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THURSDAY. PATCHY MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
CLOUDS AND SOME CU WILL DO LITTLE TO HOLD BACK TEMPS TODAY.  AND THE
WARM...MOIST SUMMERTIME AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL
MONDAY...SO ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED.  WOLF

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

A NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHILE CONTINUED AIR MASS MODIFICATION LEADS TO GRADUAL DAY
TO DAY WARMING AND HUMIDITY LEVELS INCHING BACK TO MORE TYPICAL JULY
LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY
CENTERED AROUND A SLOW MOVING FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
ALLOW WARMER TEMPERATURES BUILDING OUT WEST AT 850 MB TO NUDGE
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. OTHERWISE...LITTLE
CHANGE TAKES PLACE AT THE SURFACE AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. THE FORECAST CONTINUES A
SEVERAL DEGREES PER DAY WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...RISING
FROM AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
BY MONDAY. DEW POINTS EDGE BACK INTO THE 60S SUNDAY...THEN WILL
LIKELY REACH THE LOWER 70S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RETREATING
HIGH TO THE EAST ALLOWS A SULTRY GULF AIR MASS TO RETURN TO THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT LOWS TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. ALSO ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED THETAE ADVECTION AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER ESPECIALLY THE NW AND WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES THERE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE IS AN ABOVE AVERAGE MODEL CONSENSUS IN
THIS PERIOD WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD
FRONT...AND STRONG FEED OF GULF MOISTURE TO SUPPLY A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...THESE CHANCES LOOK GREATEST FOR THE
TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD WHEN MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. IF THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS AND GEM CONTINUES WITH ITS WED MORNING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...THE DAY MAY END UP COOLER THAN ADVERTISED WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH. LIKEWISE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
MAY BE TOO HIGH.

IN-BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURNING NW FLOW ALOFT IS
SHOWN FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...SUGGESTING A RETURN OF LESS
HUMID AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT S/SE WINDS AND CU DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




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