Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
000
FXUS63 KDVN 220431
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1131 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

...06z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

It`s hard to imagine a more pleasant weather day than today`s light
winds, mostly sunny skies, low humidity, and temperatures in the 75
to 80 degree range. This excellent weather is brought to you by deep
mixing to around 700 mb, and large omega block pattern over the
continental United States.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Our area will remain sandwiched between the northwest flow to the
east of us, and the southwest flow to the west of us for another day
or two. Looking up, if analysis were painted in the skies, a high
blue H would be there with a stout zig-zag line from Minnesota
through Oklahoma through Sunday. In other words, the upper ridge is
going to remain in place, and other than some modification of the
current airmass, there will be very little change between today and
Sunday.

I have kept a wide diurnal range going with lows in the upper 40s to
lower 50s tonight, swinging upward to the lower 80s Sunday.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

The overall weather pattern will be undergoing a significant change
next week. A more active and stormy pattern appears to be setting up
with the potential of above normal precipitation.

Quiet and dry conditions will continue Sunday night and Monday
morning as the better moisture return remains west of the area.
Temperatures should average above normal.

Monday afternoon, slightly better moisture and forcing moves into
the far western areas. This additional moisture may be enough to
develop isolated to possibly scattered showers and some
thunderstorms.

Monday night and Tuesday, higher moisture moves back into the area.
Weak disturbances moving along in the flow aloft should generate
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday night and
again during the day on Tuesday.

Tuesday night on...

The overall signal from the models is a much more active weather
pattern from Tuesday night into next weekend. Internally, the models
are suggesting the possibly of organized thunderstorm complexes
developing and affecting the Midwest.

If we do get into such a pattern, the development and movement of
each organized thunderstorm complex affects the development and
movement of the following complex. One must also remember that there
will be periods of dry weather that may be 6 or more hours in length
during this pattern.

Right now the model consensus has chance to likely pops Tuesday
night and Wednesday then chance pops Wednesday night and Thursday.

Thursday night the model consensus has chance to likely pops
followed by chance pops for Friday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Sunday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Vfr conditions will persist through the forecast period.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...McClure



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.