Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 211212
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
712 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SPREADING LOW STRATUS INTO EASTERN MN...EXTREME NORTHEAST IA
AND MOST OF WI. THESE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND I
HAVE UPDATED THE SKY GRIDS TO BRING IN THE CLOUDS SOONER THIS
MORNING INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA. MOSTLY CLOUDY OR EVEN CLOUDY SKIES
CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR A TIME IN PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN CWA WHILE
THE CLOUDS THIN OUT MORE AS THEY DROP FARTHER SOUTHWARD IN THE
CWA. CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE WIDESPREAD MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN FALLING ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL IA AND INTO FAR EASTERN
MN. THIS RAIN WAS ALSO SPREADING SOUTHWARD AND THIS TOO WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SMALL POPS IN
FAR NW IL LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT IT APPEARS
THE DVN CWA SHOULD BE ON THE FRINGES OF THIS RAIN SHIELD.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA. 3 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 50S NW
TO THE LOWER 60S SE.

WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWED A STRONG SHORT WAVE IN FAR NORTHERN WI
WHICH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. STRATUS/LIGHT RAIN WAS FOUND IN
NORTHEAST MN/WESTERN UPPER MI AND NORTHERN WI WITH THIS FEATURE.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON A COOLER AND BRISK DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

TODAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO USHER COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO
THE CWA ON NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH. SURFACE PARCEL
TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO THE LOWER 70S IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT THERE SHOULD BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN INSTABILITY
STRATOCUMULUS FORMING LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FAR NW
IL LATE THIS MORNING INTO A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS DUE TO
THE STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTHERN WI. HOWEVER...
MODELS SIMILAR IN KEEPING THE BULK OF THE RAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
THE DVN CWA WHERE THE COLD POCKET WILL EXIST.

TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE TRACKING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. READINGS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH
TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

IDEAL EARLY FALL WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD
WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES SINCE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL. AREA HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES DAYS 2-7 SHOULD BE WITHIN 2-3
DEGREES OF FORECAST.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH MINOR BL RH
ISSUES WITH A DRY FORECAST. MINOR VARIANCES IN SOLUTIONS WITH A 50/50
MIX OF GFS/HI-RES ECMWF SUGGESTED.  TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
HIGHS...TUESDAY ONWARD A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER AND AREA LOWS A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING MANY LOCATIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...QUIET EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH FAIR SKIES
UNDER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND LIGHT WINDS FAVORING THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH TUESDAY ONWARD. VERY MINOR CHANGES MADE.  HIGHS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY 70-75 THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN 75-80 THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
TRIMMED MINS TUESDAY AM A DEGREE OR TWO WITH UPPER 40S RISING
INTO THE MIDDLE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE
REDUCED VERY LOW POPS IN FAR WEST OF DECAYING LIGHT SHOWERS
TO WEDNESDAY AND MAY BE ABLE TO BE PULLED AS LOW MOISTURE AND UPPER
HIGH FOR SUBSIDENCE SHOULD MAKE THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
UNFAVORABLE AND TRENDS HAVE CONFIRMED THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SKC AT ALL
TAF SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
TODAY THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...HAASE





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