Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 261751
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1251 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

THE PROCESS PRODUCING VERY SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS SCOTLAND...
CLARK AND HANCOCK COUNTIES...LIKELY EXPANDING INTO MCDONOUGH
COUNTY OVER THE NOON HOUR. AT THE CURRENT RATE...EVENT TOTALS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES PLUS WILL BE POSSIBLE SINCE THIS DEFORMATION AXIS
SETUP EARLIER THIS MORNING.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER MAXES DUE TO OVERCAST SKIES AND
WHAT WILL LIKELY BECOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
HEAVIER RAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTH SHOULD DIMINISH AND EXIT TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY 2 PM...BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
AT LEAST MODERATE RAIN OVER S CENTRAL IA MAY EXPAND INTO THIS AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

SEVERE MCS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN KS AND
WESTERN MO BUT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST WHERE THE HIGHER CAPE AND
MOISTURE WAS LOCATED. TO THE NORTH OF THE BOWING LINE THERE WAS AN
AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
EXTREME SOUTHERN IA AND THIS WAS SPREADING EASTWARD. IN THE
MEANTIME...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE LOCATED IN NORTHERN IA BUT THE
LOW LEVELS WERE QUITE DRY AND MOST OF THIS WAS ALOFT. A COUPLE OF
OBSERVATIONS SITES DID HAVE 10SM -RA. THIS WAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS.

ON THE WEATHER MAP...A NEARLY STATIONARY EAST-WEST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SW KS TO CENTRAL MO AND TO VA. THE
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WAS VEERED INTO MO. HIGH PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. 3 AM TEMPERATURES IN
THE DVN CWA RANGED FROM 60 AT FREEPORT TO 70 AT KEOKUK. READINGS
WERE IN THE COOL 40S AROUND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT THEN
DRY AND COOLER TONIGHT.

TODAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS TAKE THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE MO MCS
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING
THIS IS STRATIFORM TYPE PRECIPITATION THE MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING
THE QPF. THE HEAVY RAIN IS TIED TO THE SEVERE MCS WELL TO OUR SOUTH
WHERE PWATS ARE 2 INCHES. THERE MAY BE A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING
STRIKES BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS IS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. IN
THE NORTHERN CWA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVELS ARE
QUITE DRY UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHEN MOISTENING
OCCURS. THEREFORE I WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR A TIME THIS MORNING
THEN GO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. ASSUMING SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO HAVE ISOLATED
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON (SBCAPES WILL BE ABOUT 500 J/KG).
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE GENERATED BY A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD IN
CHECK DUE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A NORTHEAST WIND. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S. THIS IS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE.

TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS STRONGLY INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SUBSIDENCE IN IT/S WAKE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE DVN CWA...ON NORTHERLY WINDS. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL END THIS EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS
ALMOST FALL-LIKE WITH A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A BIG RIDGE IN
THE WEST. TIME TO OPEN THE WINDOWS AS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC RAIN
CHANCES AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

SATURDAY...LOOKS TO BE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND BY FAR WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL PROVIDING AMPLE SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
AID OF DRYING ON NORTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY...GENERAL CONSENSUS ON SUNDAY BEING UNSETTLED/WET WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE AMOUNT OF
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL LOOM LARGE IN DETERMINING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...STAGNANT HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN TO FEATURE WESTERN
RIDGE /HEAT DOME/ AND EASTERN TROUGH. THE END RESULT FOR OUR CWA IS A
CONTINUATION OF ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THIS WILL SPELL PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES THERE WILL BE A LOT OF DRY TIME AS WELL.
TRYING TO PIN DOWN THE MORE FAVORABLE PERIODS FOR RAIN CHANCES IS THE MAIN
CHALLENGE GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST
FLOW LARGELY ATTRIBUTED TO POOR RESOLUTION OF THESE LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES.
BLANKETING THE LONG TERM WITH RAIN CHANCES IS THE UNFORTUNATE BY-PRODUCT OF SUCH
A DILEMMA... BUT AGAIN DO ANTICIPATE THERE TO BE MANY DRY HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS
GENERALLY EXPECT PERSISTENCE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S/NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE
50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THE BRL WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF
IFR CIGS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...DEVELOPING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MVFR
FOG DUE TO THE HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE...WHICH HAS
BEEN INCLUDED ONLY AT CID FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR
SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...SHEETS



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