Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 151740
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1140 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 255 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Little change with clear skies and light northwest flow as high pressure
moves in. Temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s at 2 AM CST. Some
high clouds from the north which will slide southeast by morning. Upper
ridging to move in late this week bringing more dry weather the next
several days with warmer temps into the 50s and 60s for highs this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Short term forecast confidence assessment...remains good or above average
as again there are no sensible weather issues. The max temps will again
tend to be up to a few degrees above mildest guidance most locations
today. Some wind gusts possible early to mid day into the 15 to 20+
MPH range. Lows tonight may see localized lower mins in cold air drainage
areas.

Today...mostly sunny to sunny and cooler but still slightly above normal
most locations. Highs in the middle 30s far north and northeast into
the lower 40s most locations in the southwest 1/2 to 2/3 of the forecast
area. Northwest winds will tend to be 10 to occasionally near 20 MPH
into mid afternoon hours.

Tonight...fair skies and decreasing winds becoming light should allow
for a decent decoupling of the boundary layer. Lows in the lower 20s
north and east to the middle/upper 20s south and west with a light to
moderate frost expected toward morning most locations by daybreak.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

ZCZC CHIWRKARG 150859
TTAA00 KCHI DDHHMM

.LONG TERM...

Long forecast warm up still on track in the extended.  If anything
the models are playing catch up with the high temps and could be
even higher than what is currently forecast.  Again Monday through
next week there is a chance for rain and even some thunder to return
to the area.

Model consensus through the long term is that H85 temps are above 0.
This means that highs will be above freezing through the entire long
term period.  The question remains, how high do we mix each day and
what does that mean to the high temps.  The trend in the last few
nights is for the models to under do the high temperatures.
Increasing the temps over blended averages have been what we have
done.  This still may not be high enough.  If you mix down from 900
hPa on Friday, most of the area could see mid to upper 60s.  This
would break record highs if this occurs.  While temperatures will
likely be warmer than forecast, do not have enough confidence to
push them higher.  The question of BL mixing is always difficult to
resolve, so will take the approach of raising highs and look to
refine highs 12 to 24 hours out as the CAMs start producing high
temps.

Next week, zonal flow will usher us into the wave pattern.  We could
see rain and possibly thunder.  Current soundings suggest weak lapse
rates, so confidence in thunder is low at this time.  Also timing
and overall mesoscale features are difficult to ascertain.  The GFS
has a WAA band setup over us and stall while the other models are
more progressive.  This is why we have POPs through many periods. As
we get closer, this will likely narrow down to better timing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

VFR conds through this taf cycle. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots
this afternoon then variable less than 5 knots tonight. Southeast
winds 10 to 15 knots on Thursday.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nichols
SHORT TERM...Nichols
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Haase



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