Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 130536
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1136 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 236 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

Wind has been the story today, with today seeing sustained winds and
peak gusts flirt with wind advisory criteria. Northwest winds of 20
to 30 mph with gusts to 40 have been common, but are now beginning
to decrease from west to east, though some occasional wind gusts to
around 40 are still occurring as full sunshine is out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

The wind will decrease quickly this evening as the pressure gradient
relaxes coincident with late afternoon and sunset. The result will
be a quiet evening after dark, leading into another very pleasant
day Monday. After lows in the 20s tonight, highs Monday will return
the mid 40s north to lower 50s south. While similar to today`s
highs, there will not be strong winds. Southwest winds of 5 to 10
mph will be found through most of the day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through next Sunday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

Monday night and Tuesday...Will continue a dry FROPA process off
digging upper low acrs the Northwestern GRT LKS Mon night, with
lingering deep cyclonic flow acrs the mid to upper MS RVR Valley
driving rather breezy conditions on Tue. But deep mixing and no snow
cover even in a cool air advection regime, to make for above normal
highs well up in the 40s. Steep northwesterlies to lee of amplifying
western Rockies upper ridge, to dump H85 MB cold pool down into the
GRT LKS out of the northwestern Hudson Bay region later Tue night
into Wed morning. Ongoing mixing winds in llvl cyclonic pressure
gradient, no snow and some CAA stratocu/AC to limit cold temp
potential but will still go with cooler of guidance lows in the low
to mid 20s for much of the local area by Wed morning.

Wednesday through Friday...Wed still on track to be the coolest day
of the week under influence of getting clipped by GRT LKS cold dump,
but advertised highs in the mid to upper 30s with even a 40 possible
in the south/southwest still around normal or a few degrees above
normal for most climate sites. Cold air advection in steep cyclonic
flow may wring out a few flurries out of any stratocu deck on Wed
especially in the northeast, but this potential not worth mentioning
at this juncture. Passing sfc ridge lobe and sfc wind decouple to
make for another cool night Wed night, but the air mass overhead
already under moderation from the west especially aloft. The
latest suite of 12z medium range models continue to advertise the
eastward migration of upstream upper ridge and underlying building
thermal pool acrs the region into the end of the week. Again will
adjust up the leaded temp blend for Thu and Fri, and go with
widespread mid to upper 50s by Fri. But with even marginal mixing,
long range thermal profiles suggest that these adjusted upward Fri
temps still possibly 3-5 degrees too cool.

Next Saturday and Sunday...Longer range indications suggest strong
eastern Pacific upper jet energy to streak inland acrs the Baja and
southwestern CONUS this period carving out upper troffiness acrs the
GRT BSn and into the 4-corners region thru Sunday. But mild upper
ridge to maintain acrs the western GRT LKS and OH RVR Valley for
much of the weekend. Besides the ongoing dry weather regime, very
unseasonable temps to also continue during both weekend days with
highs in the 50s and 60s, especially if sky cover is held at bay
until late Sunday moisture return commences up the eastern plains.
Thus next weekend may be more typical of early to mid April, as
opposed to mid-late Feb.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

VFR conditions will prevail overnight through Monday as high
pressure passes south of the region. Light west winds overnight
will become southwest and gusty, sustained from 10 to 15 kts by
late Monday morning.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...Sheets



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