000
FXUS63 KDVN 072130
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
430 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 427 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

A QUICK LOOK SINCE MY ARRIVAL STRONGLY SUGGESTS THE MAIN EVENT
TONIGHT WILL IN FACT BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...IF NOT FULLY SOUTH
OF KEOKUK IOWA. OUR FORECAST IS NOW LIMITED TO A SHORTER PERIOD OF
HIGH CHANCE NORTH TO LIKELY CENTRAL...AND CATEGORICAL SOUTH POPS
OVERNIGHT. THE EVENING APPEARS MAINLY DRY...EXCEPT LATE EVENING WEST.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

THE 2 PM ANALYSIS INDICATES MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG AND SOUTH OF IA/MO
BORDER WITH PRESSURE FALL PATTERNS AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORTIVE A
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO FIRE NEAR SUNSET NEAR MCI-STJ-TOP. THIS
WOULD LIMIT ANY HEAVY RAINS TO OUR FAR SOUTH 1/3 TO 1/4 AND POSSIBLY
JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA DUE TO STRONG DUE EAST FLOW PATTERN. AIR BEHIND
COOL FRONT DIVING SE IN NORTHERN PLAINS IS ONCE AGAIN...COLDER THAN
MOST SOLUTIONS AND STRONGER WITH WINDS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND DRIER FOR THE AREA INTO LATE THIS WEEK AND
DRY TO MOSTLY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

TONIGHT...FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34
CORRIDOR WITH RAIN AMOUNTS OF .5 TO 1.5 INCHES...HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY
IN MISSOURI. NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34...LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BELOW A QUARTER INCH...POSSIBLE A FEW TRACE AMOUNTS.
BEST TIMING OF FORCING SHOULD BE LATE EVENING INTO MID OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOWS...MID 60S NW TO NEAR 70 DEGREES FAR SE WITH FAIR SKIES ALL
BUT FAR SE SECTIONS BY SUNRISE.

TUESDAY...BREEZY...FAIR AND COMFORTABLY WARM...STRONGER COOL FRONT SUPPORTS
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH ISOLATED HIGH GUSTS IN PM HOURS. HIGHS UPPER
70S WITH LOWER 80S SOUTH. DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS
BY AFTERNOON FOR A COMFORTABLE...DESPITE THE BREEZE...MID JULY DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE TURNING
ACTIVE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL BE DRY
PERIODS OF POTENTIALLY 6 HOURS OR MORE IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY TIME FRAME.

THE MODELS ARE INDICATING ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES MAY
AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST IN THE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS SUCH
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. AFTER 07/23Z...CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH A COMPLEX
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PASS...MAINLY BETWEEN 08/03Z AND 08/09Z. VFR
TO MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT CID/MLI/DBQ TERMINALS AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES AT BRL TERMINAL DUE TO HEAVIER RAINFALL. COOL FRONT TO PASS
TO THE SOUTHEAST WELL BEFORE SUNRISE WITH FAIR SKIES AND GUSTY NW WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 KTS AFTER 08/14Z.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

AREA TRIBUTARIES ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HAVE
CRESTED AND ARE CURRENTLY FALLING. THE LOWER SKUNK RIVER IS STILL
RISING TO A CREST AT AUGUSTA IOWA.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AREAS NORTH OF I-80 SHOULD SEE AMOUNTS OF
0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OR LESS. SOUTH OF I-80...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE HEAVIER...WITH AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE
IA/MO BORDER.

THE RAINFALL TONIGHT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER...

THE MISSISSIPPI CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FALL NORTH OF KEOKUK IOWA.

THE CREST ON THE MISSISSIPPI AS OF MID DAY WAS IN THE KEOKUK IOWA TO
GREGORY LANDING MISSOURI AREA.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS
HYDROLOGY...08