000
FXUS63 KDVN 202311
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
611 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE A SMOKE LAYER THAT ORIGINATED
FROM LARGE FOREST FIRES IN WESTERN CANADA AND WASHINGTON STATE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS LAYER AT MID
AFTERNOON STRETCHED FROM LOWER MI TO WESTERN IL AND INTO CENTRAL
MO. THIS WAS GIVING A HAZY LOOK TO THE SKY. SCATTERED CUMULUS
CLOUDS ALSO DOTTED THE LANDSCAPE.

2 PM TEMPERATURES IN THE CWA RANGED FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

12Z SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
BUILDING IN THE PLAINS WITH THE 850 MB +20C ISOTHERM AS FAR EAST
AS KOMA WITH DEWPOINTS OF 13 TO 18C IN THE PLAINS. A 300 MB JET OF
70 TO 100 KNOTS STREAKED FROM WEST OF WASHINGTON STATE TO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA WITH A STRONG CLOSED LOW NEAR THE ALEUTIANS DROPPING SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY. NO HEAT HEADLINES ISSUED
YET BUT MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY.

BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A STRENGTHENING CAP WILL RETURN HOT WEATHER
TO THE CWA...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF THIS SEASON. IN FACT...
MOLINE HAS NOT HAD A 90+ TEMPERATURE YET AND THE RECORD FOR THE
LATEST 90+ IS JULY 21 1960. WE CAN EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 70 MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
GETTING INTO THE UNCOMFORTABLE LEVEL. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY 85 TO 90. HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL HEAT DOME CONTINUES TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS HEAT DOME WILL
EXPAND AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST BRINGING MID SUMMER LIKE WEATHER TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. BY 00Z TUESDAY THE MODELS PROG A 594 DECAMETER 500
MILLIBAR HEIGHT TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES IN THE +20 TO +23 DEGREES CELSIUS RANGE. TUESDAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE
HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND MUGGY AND ONLY DROP INTO
THE MID 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WHEN THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND FORCING MOVES OVER THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. BY THURSDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
AND NEAR 80 TO THE SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST WITH SURFACE
WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH. INCREASINGLY HOT
AND HUMID AIR WILL RETURN TO REGION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
NEXT WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE HOTTER MONDAY...THE VFR WEATHER SHOULD
BE UNCHANGED. ANOTHER 24 HOURS OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 8 KTS ARE EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM STORMS OVER
MINNESOTA...BUT FOR SIMPLICITY...TAFS WILL REMAIN SKC.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...ERVIN