Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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962
FXUS63 KDVN 300809
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
309 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

06Z SFC DATA HAS AN INFERRED LOW NEAR KEMP IN EASTERN KANSAS. AN
INVERTED TROF RAN FROM THE LOW NORTHWEST TO THE KS/NE BORDER. DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 30S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH 40S AND 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S WERE IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THROUGH SUNRISE...A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE MAKING
SLOW PROGRESS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOUTH OF I-80...PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A MUCH LARGER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN.

ON SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN
AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES 15 TO POSSIBLY 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 MAY STAY IN THE 40S.

BASED ON OVERALL FORCING AND MOISTURE PROFILES...ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF I-80 FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KOTM TO KGBG
LINE.

TONIGHT...THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SLOWLY FALL APART AS THE BETTER
FORCING SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THE
EVENING WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE SHOWERY...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KOTM TO KGBG
LINE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER AND MOSTLY DRY AND TENDING CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH TOO
MOIST BL SUGGESTING ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY
TO TEND TO BE LIGHTER WITH LOWER POPS. THEN TYPICAL DIURNAL RANGE ISSUES
OF A BIT UNDERDONE WITH FAIR SKIES.

SUNDAY...HAVE CHANCE POPS AND COOL WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN
SHOWERS AS UPPER LOW PASSES. IF BL MOISTURE IS OVERDONE THEN HIGHS MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES TOO LOW WITH MOSTLY UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES
POSSIBLE. SOME CLEARING ALSO IN THE PM WITH HEATING AND LIGHT POPCORN
SHOWERS SUGGESTED FOR LATER SHIFTS. SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEARING WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS SUGGESTING MINS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.
PATCHY FROST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT MINS NEED TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES LOWER FOR CONSIDERATION OF HEADLINES. WILL PASS THIS ON AS ISSUE
FOR LATER SHIFTS. MINS SOUTH 1/3 TO 1/2 SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
40S. OVERALL...RAIN AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NW FLOW WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN
AIR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S OR NEAR NORMAL OVERALL. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER
30S SUGGESTED FOR THURSDAY MORNING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

NARROW BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ARE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA...BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 08Z. MADE SOME ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS TO TIMING...WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.  SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY



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