000
FXUS63 KDVN 191736
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT ARE
SUPPORTING QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. WEAK WARM
ADVECTION IS GENERATING SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT THE NEAR
STORMS ARE WELL NORTH IN MINNESOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
CENTERED IN WESTERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT DRAGGING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

ANOTHER NICE DAY CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS AT LEAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS AGREE IN
BRINGING THE WEAK TAIL OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CANADIAN SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD DO LITTLE MORE THAN ENHANCE CLOUDS.
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER...THOUGH MOISTURE IS LACKING.

AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION PICKS UP IN
EARNEST OVERNIGHT AS THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS TO OUR
WEST BEGINS ITS EASTWARD PUSH AND BRINGS REAL SUMMER WEATHER BACK
TO OUR AREA. MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT LIKE YESTERDAYS. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING WITH THE
DEVELOPING WAA. WOLF

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS IN WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNING IN A
BIG WAY EARLY IN THE WEEK...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A
MIDWEEK COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AND A BIT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK.

A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
ALLOW VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN U.S. TO FLOOD NORTHEAST
INTO LOCAL AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
SUNDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY TUESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY...AND IF
THE WARMER GFS VERIFIES WITH ITS 24 TO 26 DEGREES C VALUES... OUR
GOING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR TUESDAY WOULD BE
SEVERAL DEGREES TOO COOL. TO COMPOUND THIS...INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO RISING HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
60S SUNDAY... LIKELY REACHING THE 70S BY TUESDAY. THIS WOULD DRIVE
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO NEAR 100...AND PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE...IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHERE
A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IS SUGGESTED WITH SUFFICIENT THETAE ADVECTION
AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO TRIGGER AT LEAST ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
WARMING ALOFT ESSENTIALLY CAPPING ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION. BETTER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES...MAY
LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE DEEP SHEAR
WILL BE MARGINAL...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
FORCING TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS...DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION WED AND
DOMINATING THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS...
COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND LOWER HUMIDITY. GFS AND ECMWF BRING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT
RETURNING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE WITH SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...HAASE