Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 191811 AAB
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
111 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

...18z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Another clear and cool spring night over the region courtesy of high
pressure sprawled out from MI SE across the forecast area. Under
clear skies with nearly calm winds, temperatures were mainly in the
40s early this morning. An axis of enhanced low level moisture that
spread west from Lake Michigan Wednesday has boosted surface
dewpoints into the lower 40s along and east of the MS river,
while 30s were common to the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Main focus is on temperatures as the surface high pressure ridge
slowly retreats eastward. The very dry mid and upper levels will
lead to initially sunny skies, which will fill in with diurnal
cumulus clouds, likely to be more widespread than yesterday due to
the moisture boost off Lake MI. It should be another day of deep
mixing, reaching least 800 mb, where temperatures are progged to
rise roughly 2 degrees Celsius above yesterday, leading to highs
around 70 to the lower 70s.

Tonight, a weak shortwave moving out of the rockies and moisture
return around 850 mb will support increasing clouds, especially
across the southwest and west. This should hold temperatures warmer
than the past few nights, and guidance lows from the mid 40s
northeast lower 50s south and southwest look reasonable.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH next Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Friday through Sunday...bulk of 00z run model solutions propagate
upper trof up along and south of the CWA with lower level moisture
intercept in it`s forcing swath producing bulk of associated precip
bands/clusters just to the south and southeast of the DVN CWA on
Friday. But a few including the new run 00z ECMWF produce some
spotty showers under the vort center in the southern to eastern CWA
by Friday afternoon. Thinking ongoing llvl east-northeast dry fetch
will limit much of any precip chance in the local fcst area and will
keep it dry for now. Moderating thermal profiles and deep mixing
potential would make for widespread low to mid 70s for Friday
highs...but worried cloud cover under the upper vort will keep highs
more in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Will lean toward the lower 70s
for now.

Then the omega block upper ridge complex getting pressed eastward
acrs the MS RVR Valley advertised for days now by the medium range
solutions, still looks on track for the rest of the weekend, making
for fair weather and continued moderating temps to normal values, or
even warmer by Sunday.

Monday through next Wednesday...the battle zone between western
flank of the omega block and upstream L/W Trof acrs the Rockies sets
up acrs the plains by Monday. Warm moist conveyor up off the western
Gulf will look to get drawn northward feeding convective clusters
and systems...with the current medium range models suggesting more
robust southwest flow and embedded mid level jet to enhance this
activity acrs the central into northern plains and acrs MN late
Monday into Monday night. If the local area can stay mainly dry and
east of the upstream convection along with limited cloud debris, the
thermal draw up acrs the area still looks to support widespread
upper 70s to lower 80s for Mon highs. Then Mon night there will be
the potential for some of the showers and thunderstorms to make it
acrs the local area from the west, if only in a weakening fashion
away from better support.

Broad southwesterlies along with more ideal thermodynamics/moisture
then take aim acrs much of the middle to upper Midwest through mid
next week for a potentially more active period. One or two MCS type
systems may make it acrs or near the local area with any more
discrete vort max or MCV during that time frame.   ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light winds
tonight will remain through tomorrow morning. Some sprinkles of
rain will be possible at BRL tomorrow, otherwise a dry day is
expected. High clouds should move in tonight, however, since these
do not affect the TAF sites, I have left them out.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sheets
SHORT TERM...Sheets
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...Gibbs



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