Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 012319
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
619 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS JUST MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD FOCUS THE
DEEP CONVECTION IS WELL DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE...WE
ARE WELL MIXED AND MILD...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS
IN THE MID 60S. ONLY ISOLATED...EXTREMELY SMALL SHOWERS ARE LOCATED
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTH...AND THIS SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UPSCALE
INTO MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A QUICK EVENING
DECREASE IN CLOUDS...AND CONTINUED LIGHT DRY ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST
WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATION AL COOLING...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST.
TUESDAY...UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS...ANOTHER MILD DAY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS EXPECTED. IT SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT
SENSIBLE WEATHER DAY WITH DEW POINTS OF 56 TO 62 AND AN AFTERNOON
BREEZY AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE WEST.   CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MAINLY
PARTLY CLOUDY...EXCEPT IN THE NORTH WHERE A PERIOD OF BROKEN
CLOUDINESS MAY OCCUR AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
WISCONSIN...AIDING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING PRECIPITATION WHILE OTHERS ARE
NOT. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A WEAK THETA E GRADIENT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THAT...WHEN COMBINED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING...
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

GOING WITH THE SCENARIO OF ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OCCURRING...THE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. WHEN THIS CONVECTION AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER EXIT
THE AREA WILL BE CRUCIAL TO HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON THURSDAY.

IF THE CLOUDS/CONVECTION EXIT EARLY IN THE MORNING...HUMID SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HEAT
INDEX READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. IF CONVECTION PERSISTS
LONGER INTO THE DAY...AS SUGGESTED BY A FEW MODELS...THEN
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET AS WARM IN SPITE OF THE HUMID SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT
DISAGREE ON THE OVERALL TIMING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

ON MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THE MODELS DIVERGE ON
THEIR SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAST THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
A SURFACE COULD FRONT ARE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL FADE QUICKLY
AS THEY MOVE EAST.  SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CENTRAL
PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO LINGER AS THEY MOVE ACROSS IOWA THIS
EVENING...BUT NO IMPACT TO AVIATION OPERATIONS IS EXPECTED.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY UP IN THE DAKOTAS IS SETTING
OFF STORMS...BUT THESE TOO SHOULD FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND MOVEMENT INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS THIS FEATURE
CROSSES NORTHERN IOWA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...NOTHING
MORE THAN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED.  WOLF

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...WOLF





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