Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 301953
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
253 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WHILE STILL RATHER HUMID FOR POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS...OUR CWA HAS
BEEN BEHIND THE FRONT SINCE AROUND 8 AM. THUS...DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS FOUND WELL EAST TOWARD CHICAGO TO
ST LOUIS.  DESPITE RATHER SLOW TO MOVE OUT STRATUS...TEMPERATURES
HAVE RECOVERED TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AS WEST WINDS BLOW
AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. IN ALL..THIS IS MORE PLEASANT WEATHER
THAN WHAT HAS BEEN FOUND THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. STATUS AND CUMULUS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH SUNSET...AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AFTER DARK THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN SOME
MID CLOUDS MAY SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION AS WAA BEGINS TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF SUNDAY NIGHT/S COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY WILL SEE A WARM SUMMER DAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S SHOULD WIDESPREAD AS SOUTH
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LARGE SCALE FORCING/MOISTURE...SUNDAY EVENING WILL BE
DRY THROUGH SUNSET. TOWARD MIDNIGHT THERE MAY OR MAY NOT BE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST/WEST QUARTER OF THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...STRONG FORCING
AND MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
WITH ANY RAIN DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNRISE IN THE FAR EAST. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AND WEST
AREAS.

A DECAYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH NEW STORMS
INITIATING MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST AREAS.

SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING OVER
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT.

THERE MAY OR MAY NOT BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EAST AND
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING. IF RAIN IS STILL OCCURRING IN THOSE AREAS
AFTER SUNRISE...IT WILL END DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TUESDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
THIRD OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS MOVING INTO
THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS IN EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE MIXED ON
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS. THE GEM/GFS DEVELOP RETURN FLOW
PRECIPITATION AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT. THE
ECMWF REMAINS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN BRINGS IN PRECIPITATION
WITH A FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY JUST LIKE THE GEM. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION AND THE FORCING IS WEAK. THUS
THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER THAT MAY BE 6 OR
12 HOURS IN LENGTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THE NEXT FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CLOUDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING UP AND
LIFTING LATE THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
VFR THROUGH 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR...ALLOWING EVENING CONDITIONS TO BE VFR AND CLEAR.
OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CALM WINDS...AND SHALLOW FOG
POTENTIAL. IFR TO LIFR FOG IS LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z SUNDAY.
AFTER 14Z...ANOTHER VFR DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS.
ERVIN


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN





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