Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
000
FXUS63 KDVN 021744
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1244 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

06Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL OHIO WITH A TROF RUNNING FROM
THE LOW BACK INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 40S FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS
IN THE 50S AND HIGHER RAN FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

THROUGH SUNRISE...ISOLATED SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS THE OVERALL FORCING ALOFT WEAKENS. SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.

FOR MONDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING DUE TO WEAK/NO FORCING. ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
MAY DEVELOP BUT CLEARING WILL BE VERY SLOW.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. FORCING WILL BE WEAK BUT IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE
WEAK BUT REASONABLY PERSISTENT SIGNAL SUGGESTS AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 WOULD
BE FAVORED FOR ANY RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...I CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF I-80.

TONIGHT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WILL DISSIPATE WITH
SUNSET. THUS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

DRY TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DECENT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH LITTLE
OR NO NEAR TERM SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. MAIN CHALLENGE AGAIN IS TOO
MOIST BL DEWPOINTS WHICH SHOULD IMPACT DIURNAL TEMPERATURES. AREAS LOWS
STILL POSSIBLY 3 PLUS DEGREES TOO MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PATCHY
FROST BECOMING A LIKELY ISSUE AT LEAST THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FRIDAY
MORNING.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 50/50 MIX OF HI-
RES ECMWF AND GFS. QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR MAINLY TO DRY CONDITIONS.
SLIGHTLY COLDER LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 50 PLUS PERCENT CHANCE
OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST NORTH OF I-80 THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...FAIR SKIES AND WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20+ MPH AND 850 TEMPS OF
+5 TO +7C AHEAD NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE AND ADIABATIC
COMPRESSION UNDER NEAR FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD FOR ALLOW FOR HIGHS UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE EARLY EVENING NORTH OF I-80. BEST CHANCES ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS COOL FRONT PASSES LATE. LITTLE
CHANGE IN LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MOST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
BE A TRACE TO WELL BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COLDER AND BREEZY WITH INSTABILITY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY PM AS FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST IN ILLINOIS. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY MORNING...LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FROST WITH LIGHT WINDS AOB 5 MPH SUGGEST MINS IN THE 34 TO 38 DEGREES
NORTH OF I-80 WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST IN LOW
LYING LOCATIONS. THE PERCENTAGE CONFIDENCE IS 50+ PERCENT...SO WILL
ADD TO HWO PRODUCT. HIGHS THURSDAY ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... WARMING TREND AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY. HIGHS
TO REACH WELL INTO THE 70S WITH NEAR 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY. LOWS RISING INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH OPEN GULF MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BEST FORCING TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
THAT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS OR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
IN THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS IS A LARGE UPPER LOW SYSTEM AND APPEARS WILL
AFFECT THE MIDWEST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TIMING AND IMPACTS WILL BE BETTER
KNOWN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

STRATOCU FIELDS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR LEVELS WHERE THEY STILL ARE
HANGING ON IN BKN-OVC COVERAGE...WITH SOME LOWER SCTRD CU. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BRL SITE
HAVING HIGHEST COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE BKN HEIGHTS AT MVFR LEVELS AT
TIMES. PASSING UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OUT OF SE MN/WESTERN WI
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACRS THE REGION MAY HELP INDUCE ISOLATED TO
WDLY SCTRD SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING MAINLY
ACRS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...THUS WILL LIMIT VCNTY
WORDING IN TAFS ONLY TO BRL. CLEAR OUT EXPECTED THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND REGIME. DESPITE NONE OF THE MODELS
HINTING AT IT...SOME CONCERN FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG/GROUND FOG IN
AREAS WITH A LINGERING SATURATED SFC LAYER UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP GOOD VSBYS GOING INTO TUE MORNING
AND HOPE FOG MORE LIMITED TO RVR VALLEYS...BUT THE FOG WATCH WILL
HAVE TO BE ON.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...12



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.