Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 112332
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
632 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

...00z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

18Z surface data had a cold front running from the eastern Great
Lakes into the southern Plains with high pressure over the upper
Midwest and northern Plains. Dew points were in the 60s and higher
from the Great Lakes into the southern Plains and lower Mississippi
Valley. Dew points in the 50s were across the upper Midwest and
northern Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Quiet, dry, and cooler than normal temperatures will be seen from
late this afternoon through Saturday as Canadian high pressure
slowly moves through the Midwest.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Expect quiet weather to continue through early next week, followed
by warmer temperatures and increasing rain chances.

Surface high pressure across the region will result to below normal
temperatures again Saturday night, with lows in the 50s. Sunday will
be another pleasant day withs highs in the 70s to around 80. A
trough will pass to the north with a low probability of showers in
the far north.

Monday and Tuesday, general model consensus points to upper ridging
and a gradual increase in temperatures and humidity.

For Wednesday, model agreement breaks down with a variety of
solutions regarding the passage of another trough. The GFS/GEM are
more amplified and slower, with most widespread rain favored for
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Overall shear/instability parameters do
not look very impressive right now for any significant severe
weather.

Thursday and Friday, cannot rule out some additional rain, but
confidence is low in the current 20-30 pops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

VFR conditions will dominate the TAF cycle, as high pressure
builds into the region over the next 24 hours.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP Kinney
AVIATION...McClure



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