


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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913 FXUS63 KDVN 010518 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1218 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated storms are expected through this evening, a few of which could be strong to severe well south of I-80. - The pattern looks less active for most of the week, before chances for showers and thunderstorms increase by the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Through Tonight: SPC mesoanalysis had a surface low located in Ontario with a trailing weak cold front through the western Great Lakes and extending back to the southwest into northern Missouri. Surface observations show the front has passed through most of the outlook area as winds have turned to the northwest. MLCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg combined with large scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough rolling across the area from west to east will likely lead to low coverage showers and storms through this evening (~20-40%, highest across the south). SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms, mainly for isolated damaging winds if we do get a few stronger cells to form. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible due to slow storm motions. For the overnight period, expect cooler and less humid conditions with lows in the 60s. Tuesday - Wednesday: Pleasant summer weather is expected with highs in the 80s and comfortable humidity for early July. Wednesday Night: The latest NBM has low chances (20-30%) for thunderstorms north of I-80 with our area on the eastern edge of a weak low-level jet and area of elevated warm air advection. Confidence is very low on the coverage of showers and storms during this time with some models still showing dry conditions into Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Thursday, July 4th/Friday and the weekend ahead continue to look warm, with a gradual increase in thunderstorm chances over the weekend. The heat could be near advisory levels, but the signal for high dew point air is not too strong at this point. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s seem on track, with lows in the lower 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with light northwesterly winds between 5-10 KTs. Otherwise, no sig wx is expected at this time. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...Gunkel