000
FXUS63 KDVN 250901
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
401 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

06Z has a weak front/boundary running from lower Michigan into
northern Missouri with high pressure over the northern Plains. Dew
points were in the 40s across the northern Plains with 50s from the
Great Lakes into the central Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Temperatures will continue to average below normal today and
tonight.

Quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area through
sunrise and during the morning hours. Attention then turns to the
next upper level disturbance.

The next upper level disturbance will move through the area during
the afternoon and evening hours. Unlike yesterday, this disturbance
is much weaker and the overall atmospheric moisture is lower.
Additionally, there should be more diurnal cloud development which
would limit overall heating.

Shower activity looks to be quite spotty this afternoon with any
activity dissipating prior to sunset. The area that appears to be
favored for any rain is mainly the highway 20 corridor.

Tonight, quiet and dry conditions will be seen during the evening
across the area. After midnight, some models are attempting to
generate nocturnal convection with an approaching upper level
disturbance. The forcing from this disturbance is weak and the
better moisture return is in western Iowa.

Thus dry conditions should continue after midnight. Low temperatures
then become a question of cloud cover. If clouds move in, it will
not get as cold. IF the clouds hold off tonight, overnight lows may
approach records. Refer to the climate section for specific numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Will continue with small chances for showers Monday AM mainly
southwest cwa with low amplitude impulse shuttled down in
NW flow. However, trends have been weakening on vort max and
magnitude of mid level theta-e advection, and given dry air may
be mostly just mid clouds with sprinkles. Attendant surface
trough will sag across cwa and likely serve as the focus for
better chances of showers with isolated storms Monday PM south
of I-80. Meanwhile, cyclonic flow and cold air aloft will
also lead to at least a slight chance of showers across the
northern cwa during the afternoon, with best chances looking to
reside just north into WI in closer proximity to another shortwave
trough. Bufr soundings show skinny CAPE with inverted V type
profiles, with MUCAPE generally 200-300 J/kg thus isolated thunder
with perhaps some gusty wind potential across the southern cwa.
Otherwise, continued seasonably cool with highs in the upper 60s
to lower 70s.

Monday night through Tuesday, will see quiet conditions as high
pressure builds across the region. Cool lows once again Monday
night with upper 40s and lower 50s, although a few mid 40s
possible in sheltered areas north. Weak southerly flow will
develop Tuesday and begin the trend of modifying temps closer
toward normal with highs from the mid 70s to near 80 degrees.

Wednesday through Friday still is looking quite active with
the potential for a few rounds of storms, as the region
will be near wavering frontal zone on edge of main westerlies
within strong thermal and moisture advection and heat dome
to our southwest. This has the looks of a typical active June
pattern with risk of strong/severe storms given stronger shear
and instability, and heavy rain with very high PWATs of near
2 inches being progged by models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

A clear night will continue wiht light northwest winds. After
sunrise, winds increase again Monday from the northwest to 12
gusting to 20 kts through the day time hours. All hours are
expected to be VFR/clear. Light this past evening, winds will
reduce significantly after sunset.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Record Lows for June 26...

Moline.........48 in 1926
Cedar Rapids...46 in 1928
Dubuque........47 in 2004
Burlington.....50 in 1926

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...Ervin
CLIMATE...08