000
FXUS63 KDVN 022053
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
253 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SD TO ALONG
THE IA/NEB BORDER AND THEN INTO NORTHERN MO. A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WAS PRODUCING A BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN IN
EASTERN IA INTO WESTERN IL WHILE FARTHER EAST THERE WAS VIRGA/SPRINKLES.
THIS BAND OF RAIN WAS MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE CWA RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
ELSEWHERE...MILD READINGS IN THE 60S WERE FOUND FROM NEB TO TX BUT
ARCTIC AIR WAS LURKING IN ND AND NORTHERN MN WITH READINGS ONLY IN
THE 20S WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WAS FALLING. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 WAS NOTED IN MO AND INTO OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

FORECAST FOCUS ON WARM TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

TONIGHT...THE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL EXIT THE CWA BY ABOUT 6 PM
FOLLOWED BY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHEAST WINDS LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA. THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG WILL BE
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA WHERE SOME SNOW IS STILL ON THE GROUND
FROM A WEEK AGO. SHOULD BE A WARMER NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY
TRACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
PUT THE DVN CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS. WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA WILL
HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS IN OUR NORTHERN CWA. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF. THIS WILL BOOST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 40S ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO THE LOWER 60S
FAR SOUTH. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S. WILL GO CLOSER
TO THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS TIMING OF
THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT.  NAM/GFS ARE FASTER...WHILE ECMWF/UKMET
REMAIN SLOW. CONSENSUS IS TO LEAN TO NAM/GFS TIMING...WHICH RESULTS
IN BRINGING THE FRONT INTO NW PARTS OF CWFA AROUND MIDNIGHT TUE
NIGHT/WED MORNING...ALONG MS RIVER AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE...AND
THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS BY WED AFTERNOON.  DESPITE INCONSISTENCIES
IN THE MODELS...THEY ALL HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE FROPA DOWN.
THUS...IF TIMING SLOWS FURTHER...WED MAY BE MUCH WARMER THAN CURRENT
FORECAST OF EARLY DAY HIGHS WITH STEADY/FALLING TEMPS WED PM.
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA WITH POSSIBLY SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN NW PARTS OF THE CWFA AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WED. OVERALL...AMOUNT REMAIN LIGHT WITH ONLY TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.  AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN...HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS AND 20S THU THROUGH MON...WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.  BLUSTERY NW WINDS WILL BE COMMON WED PM
THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY SLACKING OFF SAT. WIND CHILLS OF
-10 TO +5 WILL BE FOUND EVERY MORNING BETWEEN 12AM-10AM FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. KEPT LOW POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF A POSSIBLE OVER-RUNNING LIGHT SNOW EVENT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT MORE LIKELY OVER RUNNING LIGHT SNOW
EVENT APPEARS SET FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

VFR/OCNL MVFR CONDS IN BR/AREAS OF -RA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THEN MVFR/OCNL IFR CIGS/VIS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...HAASE