000
FXUS63 KDVN 032349
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
549 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB WARM FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE PLAINS. A
STRONG LLJ RAN THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SATELLITE TRENDS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST WITH CLEARING ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KDLH TO KTOP WITH A
PRE-FRONTAL TROF APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
30S AND HIGH FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

QUIET AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW...UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO A SPLIT FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. POLAR BRANCH OF THIS FLOW WILL BRING MORE ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE MIDWEST AS IT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. LARGE MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE E PACIFIC AND WESTERN U.S.
INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BRINGING
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS MOSTLY DRY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF E IOWA AND PARALLEL THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION WHICH MEANS SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY
DECOUPLE. ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 BELOW ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A FEW SITES NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TODAY.
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR BURLINGTON TO
CLOSE TO -10 F IN THE N/NW DVN CWA. FAVORED COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL COLD ON THU WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. 850-500MB FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WHICH WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPS TO -4 C BY FRI AFTN AND
1000-500 MB THICKNESS TO 540 DAM. SHOULD FINALLY SEE TEMPS NEAR OR
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF E IOWA/W ILLINOIS ON FRI.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS FOR DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER. ALTHOUGH A CLIPPER EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW COULD BRING
LIGHT PRECIP TO THE MIDWEST ON SUN...THE LOCATION OF WHICH IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE GEM IS THE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH ITS
SOLUTION. OTHER MODELS ARE FURTHER NORTH AND WEAKER SO ONLY
MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP FOR NOW.

TEMPS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS
CLIPPER. CONSENSUS BLEND OF MID/UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S FROM NE-TO-
SW ACROSS THE DVN CWA IS THE GOING FORECAST WITH A RATHER LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WILL BE ON THE
PRECIPICE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE W/SW. ECMWF IS PUSHING FOR
50S ON SUN/MON...GFS IS STILL HOLDING IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MVFR CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN
GUSTINESS THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVING
IN FROM CENTRAL IOWA...THEN DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AFTER 06Z-07Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 5...

MOLINE.........-13 IN 1960
CEDAR RAPIDS...-12 IN 1960
DUBUQUE........-9  IN 1978
BURLINGTON.....-13 IN 1960

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
CLIMATE...UTTECH