


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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773 FXUS63 KDVN 120030 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL Issued by National Weather Service Duluth MN 730 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Flash Flooding will continue across much of eastern Iowa and into northwest Illinois tonight. - An Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) of severe weather is expected this evening. Damaging winds are the primary hazard. A few tornadoes and large hail can not be ruled out. - Quieter weather arrives this weekend with only isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures begin to increase next week ahead of our next weather system by the middle of the week. Increasing thunderstorm chances are expected with this next system. && .UPDATE... Issued at 722 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Very heavy rainfall and flash flooding will continue this evening as thunderstorms train along a very slow moving frontal boundary. With strong moisture advection converging into this boundary with the low level jet, precipitable water values around 2.00 inches, and very slow Corfidi vectors indicative of backbuilding, training convection, all ingredients are in place for a continued and potentially worsening flash flood threat across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois this evening. The zone of greatest concern is from the Memphis, Keokuk, Macomb, Fairfield and Mount Pleasant areas, northeast through the Quad Cities, Geneso and Morrison areas. An additional two to three inches of rainfall are expected for these locations, with locally higher amounts. The dangers of flash flooding at night will also become a concern when it is harder to see. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER COVERED ROADS OR GO NEAR FAST MOVING WATER. Did expand the Flood Watch to the remaining southern tier of counties from Memphis, Missouri east through Macomb, Illinois. The southern portion of the Watch will be in effect until 400am CDT Saturday. Regarding the severe threat, the primary hazard will be damaging winds from established cold pools and water loading, with the secondary threat being tornadoes from the QLCS with mesovorticies. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 126 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Several locations across the area received 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over the last 24 hours. This will contribute greatly to the expected hazards through tonight. In the meantime, a decaying area of showers and thunderstorms continues to lift northeastward out of our region. A positively-tilted shortwave trough is situated over the central Great Plains and is expected to progress eastward through this afternoon and evening. Late this morning and early this afternoon, pockets of sunshine allow for rapid daytime heating and destabilization. Temperatures reach the middle to upper 80s along and south of Interstate 80, with upper 70s and lower 80s to the north where clouds linger. This sets the stage for a very active afternoon and evening. With the approaching trough and afternoon destabilization, thunderstorm development is expected near convective outflow from morning thunderstorms across our north and ahead of the approaching trough to our west. These thunderstorms are forecast to develop in a favorable environment for severe weather and flash flooding. As such, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded to an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) over the area. Convectively-enhanced low-level winds support curved hodographs that favor supercell development initially. These supercells will pose an all hazards threat, with damaging winds, marginally large hail, and even a few tornadoes possible. Flash flooding will be another hazard. Low-level winds favor continuous moisture transport from the southwest into our area, alongside an already deep-saturated airmass. Given weak and backed upper-level winds, high-precipation rates are expected. 2 to 4 inch per hour rainfall rates are probable. As the afternoon and evening progresses, additional thunderstorm development and gradual upscale growth into lines of thunderstorms is anticipated. This upscale growth will transition the hazards to a primary threat of damaging winds and flash flooding as cold pools congeal. With that said, a couple tornadoes can not be ruled out. Slow movement and training of thunderstorms appears likely. Weaker upper-level winds and shear vectors generally in the same direction as thunderstorm orientation supports prolonged heavy rainfall. With this expectation, widespread additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is forecast with locally higher amounts possible. A Flood Watch is in effect for much of the area as a result due to this threat of flash flooding and river flooding. Late tonight and into early Saturday morning, thunderstorms gradually shift eastward, along with the trough and precipitation tapers off by midnight with any lingering showers and thunderstorms dissipating after midnight. Patchy fog may develop behind this rainfall with plentiful moisture and cooler temperatures filling in behind this activity. Temperatures cool into the upper 60s by Saturday morning as remnant clouds continue to linger. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 126 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 With widespread cloud cover and rain-cooled air lingering Saturday morning, comparatively quieter weather is anticipated for Saturday. With that said, at least a few afternoon thunderstorms can be expected during the mid-afternoon before everything clears to the east by evening. Temperatures reach the middle 80s across the area on Saturday. Cooler temperatures continue on Sunday, with morning temperatures down into the lower 60s and afternoon temperatues reaching the middle 80s once again. Mostly sunny skies offer up beautiful weather to end the weekend. Temperatures climb back into the upper 80s and lower 90s to start the week under mostly sunny skies and ahead of our next system. Heading towards the middle of the week, our next weather system brings increasing thunderstorm chances and cooling temperatures. A cold front could bring upper 70s and lower 80s to the area late in the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 722 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Widespread thunderstorms this evening across eastern Iowa and western Illinois with MVFR to IFR visibilities and wind gusts of 30 to 50kts with the strongest storms. Thunderstorms will decrease in coverage from west to east between the 05Z and 08Z timeframe. Low level stratus and fog is expected to expand across the area tonight into Saturday morning with MVFR/IFR conditions. Ceilings will slowly lift to MVFR by late morning on Saturday. Isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast with daytime heating on Saturday. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ040>042-051>054- 063>068-076>078. Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ087>089-098-099. IL...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ001-002-007-009- 015>018-024. Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ025-026-034-035. MO...Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ009-010. && $$