Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 050859
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
259 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

Intense low pressure (975 mb) was located over Lake Superior with
a strong cold front extending to Indiana and then to Texas.
Initially after the fropa, wind gusts were as high as 53 mph at
Moline, but the winds have settled down somewhat since but were
still strong out of the west. Temperatures continue to fall and
were in the upper 20s to mid 30s early this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

Forecast focus on very windy conditions today.

Today: I have extended the wind advisory until 6 pm for much of
the cwa. Intense low pressure in the northern Great Lakes will
keep strong westerly winds blowing for much of the day. Forecast
soundings indicate mixing up to 750 mb which will allow for
momentum transfer of 40 knot winds at the top of the mixed layer.
In addition, there is a nice deep westerly component to the wind
in the column. Therefore, for much of the day expect sustained
winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to up to 45 mph. There may be a
few hours this morning where winds diminish a bit until the deeper
mixing occurs later this morning and afternoon. Don`t get me
wrong, this will still be a very windy day overall with cold
advection. Skies will be sunny for a time this morning followed by
partly sunny skies as an area of clouds sweep in from the
northwest with a weak upper air disturbance. Highs will be in the
30s but wind chills will remain in the teens and 20s most of the day.

Tonight: Winds will diminish rapidly by sunset (which is really
early these days!) as the cyclone fills and the atmosphere
decouples. Therefore, the wind advisory may be able to be
cancelled sooner. I have maintained the scattered flurries for the
overnight hours as another weak disturbance rotates southeast
into the area. Lows will range from the upper teens north to the
mid 20s south, with wind chills in the single digits and teens.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

Winter will rule the roost through the extended, but at this point,
beyond a few flurries, the upcoming week offers up little more than
"Hey look out the window, it`s snowing!" opportunities (passing
flurries). There remains a bit of low pops for Friday and again
towards next Tuesday, but with very little run to run and model to
model consistency in any clipper system (not just track, but
existence of them), we seem to be on track for winter`s cold and
wind, but not much else.

The strong cold advection will continue through Wednesday and
Wednesday night, into Thursday before the winds really become a non
factor. While nothing as strong as today, Wednesday will be windy,
with sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph, gusting to 30 to 35 mph.  Pair
that wind with temperatures hovering in the upper 20s to lower 30s,
and wind chills will stay in the teens and 20s through the day. Wind
chills overnight, will approach zero or even the lower single digits
blow zero in the north, as 10 to 15 mph winds combine with
temperatures bottoming out near 12 to 16 north and 16 to 19 south.
Winds will continue at 10 to 15 mph through Thursday, as highs peak
in the mid to upper 20s. Once again, wind chills will remain in the
teens through the day, mainly below 15!

Friday, as another cold front drops south (previously seen as a
clipper), winds should shift to the west, and allow for some warm
advection, and highs back to the mid 20s north to mid 30s south.
Following that, another brisk and cold Saturday awaits.

For now, models are showing the upper pattern becoming more
progressive by Sunday and Monday, and with that the coldest portion
of the upper trof will shift to the east, and allow for temperatures
to return to normal.  Keep in mind, that`s still way below what
we`ve just experienced!  Highs in the mid 30s north to lower 40s
south appear likely for Sunday and Monday. ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

Main story will remain the winds with WNW winds 20-30 kts and
gusty through Tuesday before diminishing slowly Tuesday evening.
Low clouds with lower VFR and MVFR cigs will exit overnight.
Additional stratus may at times result in a lower VFR to higher
MVFR cig by mid Tuesday AM into PM with also a few flurries
possible. Skies should then become mostly clear/VFR Tuesday evening.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Benton-Buchanan-
     Cedar-Clinton-Delaware-Dubuque-Henry IA-Iowa-Jackson-
     Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Keokuk-Linn-Louisa-Muscatine-Scott-
     Van Buren-Washington.

IL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Bureau-Carroll-
     Henry IL-Jo Daviess-Mercer-Putnam-Rock Island-Stephenson-
     Whiteside.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...McClure



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