Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 250808
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
308 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

ALL QUIET WEATHER NIGHTS ARE NOT CREATED EQUAL. THIS
BENIGN NIGHT HAS SEEN A CLOUD LAYER AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FT OVER THE
ENTIRE UPPER MIDWEST NORTHEAST OF MINNEAPOLIS TO MUSCATINE
LINE...WHICH WAS SOLID AND OPAQUE...AND SUBSTANTIALLY MORE THAN
MODELS HAS SUGGESTED. THEN...AROUND 2 AM...IT HAS BROKEN UP THROUGH
SUBSIDENCE ON THE WESTERN EDGE...WHICH IS PRETTY MUCH INCLUDES OUR
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES WHICH HELD NEAR
60 FOR A LONG DURATION THIS EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HAVE QUICKLY
DIPPED TO THE LOWER 50S. SO...FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT... OUR CWA
WILL SIT RIGHT IN THE PATH OF CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH...EACH OF WHICH
IS IN A DISSIPATING MODE. SO...THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD WAKE UP
TO CLOUDS OR CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

GIVEN THE CLEARING TREND...I WILL GO AGAINST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND BEGIN THE DAY MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY IN ALL BE THE FAR
NORTHEAST. AS CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TODAY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
MORE CUMULUS TO TRANSITION TO STRATOCUMULUS...FORMING ANOTHER
EXPANSION OF THE CLOUDS UNDER THE UPPER LOW.  SHOULD THIS AFFECT OUR
CWA STRONGLY...THE NORTHEASTERN 1/3 MAY RETURN TO CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR THAT REASON...I WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE HIGHS
NORTHEAST BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH HIGHS THERE AROUND 70...WITH A
MORE CONFIDENT SUNNY FORECAST SOUTHWEST AND HIGHS OF 72 TO 76.
TONIGHT...UNDER CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS SHOULD FALL TO THE MID 40S IN VALLEY SITES...TO THE 49
TO 52 RANGE IN OTHER LOCATIONS. NO DOUBT IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL
LIKE EARLY OCTOBER AROUND HERE ANOTHER 24 HOURS.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

QUIET AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM.

THE QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY EVENING DUE TO
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS
WILL THE RAIN MAKE INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA. THUS THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT THE
AREA MIGHT REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY. FOR NOW THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE CUT BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND WEST AREAS.

FRIDAY ON...

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24+ HRS. LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE ROTATING AROUND GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE AND DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY... WITH PERIODIC VFR CIGS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF CID TO MLI AXIS. LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING ABOUT DECREASING
CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING WINDS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MCCLURE



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