000
FXUS63 KDVN 272105
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
305 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MUCH OF THE DVN CWA SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS EXCEPT OUR FAR SW
COUNTIES. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG INVERSION ABOUT 850 MB WITH
LITTLE MIXING AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND. THE CLEARING LINE TO
OUR WEST WAS EDGING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. IN NORTHEAST IL SKIES
WERE ALSO CLEARING. DUE TO THE STRATUS THIS WAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...READINGS WERE IN THE LOWER 40S IN OUR FAR SW.

ELSEWHERE...WARM TEMPERATURES WERE FOUND IN THE PLAINS WITH READINGS
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...CHALLENGING CLOUD FORECAST WITH LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE EDGES AS CLEARING PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL IA
AND NORTHERN MO. ALSO CLEARING WAS OCCURRING IN NORTHEAST IL BUT
IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR EAST. EAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER TEENS FAR NW IL TO THE MID 20S SW.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW
BETTER MIXING TO BRING DOWN THE DRIER AIR ALOFT. 850 MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 40-45 KNOTS SO SURFACE WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH.
THE STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE OR CLEAR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. IN THE MEANTIME...MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. NICE WARMING AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 10 TO 12C IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA TO +4C IN
NW IL. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN FAR NW
IL TO THE LOWER 50S IN OUR FAR SW COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS THE CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS WEEKEND.  THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION IS
INCREASING WITH THIS LATEST PACKAGE.  AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WE
MAY HAVE A LONG DURATION ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE
TRANSVERSING THE FLOW.  A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOW
WARMER THROUGHOUT THE LAYER...SUGGESTING DRIZZLE AND RAIN...INSTEAD
OF FZDZ. LOOKING AT MODELS...THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
FIRST WAVE AND POPS QPF ACROSS OUR AREA WITH FROPA.  THE REST OF THE
MODELS KEEP IT NORTH AND US DRY. A LOOK AT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS
THAT THE CLOUD LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW AND MORE INDICATIVE OF DRIZZLE
WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN.  THINK THAT WITH H85 WAA...GOOD CVA AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.  AS COLD AIR SURGES IN...A
TRANSITION WILL OCCUR IN THE NORTH.  BEFORE THE COLD AIR BECOMES
COMPLETELY ENTRENCHED THE CHANCE FOR POPS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA.  NO ACCUMULATION FROM SNOW IS EXPECTED.

THIS WEEKEND...AN OVERRUNNING...LONG DURATION EVENT STILL LOOKS
POSSIBLE.  SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING MOISTURE NORTH.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL LAST 24 HOURS AND
EVEN LONGER.  PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME WITH LESS THAN
0.40 OF AN INCH LIQUID QPF BEING FORECAST TODAY.  THE GFS SPINS UP A
LOW TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY WHERE...THE GEM AND ECMWF KEEPS THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH.  THIS EVENT WILL NEED TO BE PAID ATTENTION
TO IN UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT...ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO THE AREA AS COLD
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES AFTER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AT MOST TAF SITES. THE
EXCEPTION IS KBRL WHERE CONDS SHOULD BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT. BECOMING
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
ON WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...HAASE