Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 170918
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
318 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

The latest sfc analysis was indicating a near quasi-stationary warm
front undulating from acrs the east central Dakotas, southeastward
acrs north central IA and down along the eastern I80 corridor of
the local CWA and into central IND. Aloft, a Rex Block type pattern
continued to shift east acrs the central CONUS, with the ridge
portion pushing toward the mid and upper MS RVR Valley, while cut-
off upper low spiraled acrs western TX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Today...As the upper ridge locates overhead, the warm front to get a
retreatal push along and north of the CWA By midday. Thus the DVN
CWA to get fully engulfed by warming southwesterly LLVL flow this
afternoon. Looking at projected warm draw and what happened to the
southwest of the CWA yesterday, will bump up temps by at least a few
degrees or more. Will side with the warmer NAM high temps, or even
go a few degrees warmer than those values. So will be advertising
highs in the low to mid 60s in the far north...upper 60s to around
70 along I80 from the MS RVR on west, and the lower 70s in the
southwest. Record highs at all major climate sites for Feb 17th.
This warmth with limited mixing depth up to H915 MB and base of
inversion. Any deeper mixing and fcst highs will still be too cool,
but don`t want to go too crazy with the warming potential just yet.
With the northwest upper flow shifting east to lee of upper ridge,
expect much less cirrus today than yesterday, so full sunshine also
to help the warmer temp idea.

Will touch upon enhanced fire threat in the HWO south of I80 and
especially south of a Sigourney IA, to Burlington, and to north of
Macomb IL line. Plentiful dry grass fuels, unseasonably mild temps
and low RH the primary drivers, with southwest winds of 10-20 MPH
being the limiting factor of a much higher fire danger. If the winds
where much higher of 20-30+ MPH, there probably would be Red Flag
Warning criteria met. Will still have to watch for deeper mixing and
resultant sfc DPT/RH bombs this afternoon, as well as gustier winds.

Tonight...Ridge-riding cyclone into the northwestern GRT LKS to
sweep a dry frontal passage through the CWA from the northwest after
Midnight and into early Sat morning. Despite a convergent boundary
in the area, don`t buy the 00z GFS and NAM`s areas of fog in the
north toward daybreak Sat, they appear too moist in the sfc layer
and probably too cold.  ..12..

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through next Thursday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Saturday and Sunday, though slightly cooler than today, will provide
an extreme example of pleasant February weather in this region.
Highs both days should reach the upper 50s north to mid 60s south,
and will combine with winds under 10 mph. This is not only normals
for  weekend of Late April weather, but with the lack of stong winds
would make that a notably pleasant late April weekend.

Monday, low pressure will lift into the Dakotas, drawing a narrowing
moisture tongue along a front through Iowa. The best forcing, and
moisture look to impact locations farther west into central Iowa,
but the narrowing moisture does look to at least bring a strong
chance for rainfall to the Iowa side of the river, before
diminishing into Illinois toward Tuesay morning. The warm draw ahead
of this low will bring another very mild day Monday, as we`re fully
into the warm sector. Highs well into the mid 60s are expected, with
any sun potentially bringing 70 degree readings. Like previous days,
these will possibly set record highs for the date.

The mid level moisture, and with it rainfall chances, will arrive in
the west in the afternoon, and very slowly will shift east. A dry
slot, combined with downsloped air from the west, will arrive
Tuesday morning, bringing clearing, and a return to widespread 60s
just under record levels. This air will last through Wednesday, with
highs possibly setting another day of records at that time.

Thursday into Friday, strong upper wave is forecast by both GFS and
EC to move through the upper Midwest. This is likely to move north
of Iowa, or over Iowa. In any case, another warm sector should
impact our CWA, with highs remaining in the upper 40s to upper 50s.
Rain chance will increase as well, though we have little confidence
in timing or amounts as of yet.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Vfr conditions will persist through the TAF cycle. A warm front south
of I-80 will lift northward late tonight through mid morning Friday.
Light e/se winds will turn southerly and increase to around 10 kts with
the passage of the warm front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Record Highs for today February 17th...

Moline.........63 in 2011
Cedar Rapids...66 in 1981
Dubuque........61 in 1981
Burlington.....67 in 2011

Record Highs for February 18th...

Moline.........63 in 1913
Cedar Rapids...65 in 1981
Dubuque........61 in 1981
Burlington.....65 in 1913

Record highs for February 19th...

Burlington.......70 in 1930
Cedar Rapids.....68 in 1930
Dubuque..........63 in 1930
Moline...........69 in 1930

Record highs for February 20th...

Burlington.......67 in 1983
Cedar Rapids.....60 in 1981 (and prev years)
Dubuque..........61 in 1981
Moline...........65 in 1930

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...McClure
CLIMATE...Ervin/12



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