765
FXUS63 KDVN 251929
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
229 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Very cool conditions across the Upper Midwest for late June with
lots of clouds and temperatures mostly in the 60 to some lower 70s
south at 2 PM CDT. Breezy NW winds are making for a day more
normal for early May. Upstream energy continues to support below
normal conditions the next couple of days and mostly dry to dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Short term forecast confidence assessment...fair to poor or average
to below average. Two issues are the extent of clouds and possibly
light precipitation impacting temperatures and if indeed any light
precipitation does occur as evidence most solutions are too moist in
the boundary layer. Area low/high temperatures could be off by as much
as 5 degrees if forecast clouds and light precipitation does or does
not occur as forecast.

Tonight...area subsidence supports mostly clear to clear skies should
occur by mid-evening. With winds of around 5 to 8 MPH temperatures
should fall into the upper 40s far north and northeast to the lower
50s elsewhere. Some question on timing of any clouds and any light
precipitation. If clouds are delayed or faster than forecast mins could
be 3 to 5 degrees many locations. If skies a more clear, then forecast
lows may threaten record mins as detailed in Climate section.

Monday...expect variable clouds with a chance of light showers or a
low possibly of a few rumbles of thunder. Cloud coverage supports highs
in the upper 60s north to the lower 70s south with risk of lower highs
if clouds and light precipitation is more prevalent. Winds will be
northwesterly at 5 to 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Long term starts out quiet and cooler like the last few days across
the area.  The flow then turns to the south and southwest ushering
more humid air into the area.  A shift in the largescale flow to an
active weather regime then takes over.  The boundary between the
humid air and dry air will oscillate across the area in the
extended, bringing with it an active June like weather pattern with
chances of showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the period.

Tuesday...high pressure will keep the area dry as it moves to the
south and east of the area.  Pleasant dewpoints in the 50s will
start to increase overnight and into Wednesday.  Strong nocturnal
LLJ of 50 to 60kts will aid in returning deep moisture to the area.
Synoptic models are extremely consistent this run with the placement
and the overall strength of the jet.  There is high confidence in
this occurring.  The best forcing for this will be off to the west
of the CWA.  Wednesday as the better moisture advects in, the
chances for thunderstorms increase.  Model QPF for Wednesday
suggests that a progressive area of storms will track east across
Iowa during the day and reach our area during peak heating.  If this
were to occur, cloud cover from anvil shielding may limit overall
instability.  If this doesn`t happen and thunderstorms develop
across the area, there would likely be a chance for severe weather.
The overall chance for severe weather Wednesday is tied to what
happens in the AM Wednesday.

Thursday on...wavetrain in the westerlies along with deep moisture
will continue the chance for pops through the extended.  Differences
in the placement of the sfc boundary leads to different locations
for QPF in the models.  As such, overall confidence in rain location
is low but confidence in overall chances for rain are high.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

VFR conditions to continue under partly cloudy to fair skies. Any
cloud bases will be AOA 4K AGL. Northwest winds of 10 to 20+ MPH
will diminish tonight to 5 to 10 MPH or less into Monday mid morning
with some gusts to over 15 MPH by mid day.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Record Lows for June 26...

Moline.........48 in 1926
Cedar Rapids...46 in 1928
Dubuque........47 in 2004
Burlington.....50 in 1926

Record Lows for June 27...

Moline.........46 in 1992
Cedar Rapids...42 in 1926
Dubuque........43 in 1992
Burlington.....48 in 1968

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nichols
SHORT TERM...Nichols
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Nichols
CLIMATE...Gibbs/Nichols