000
FXUS63 KDVN 030354
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
954 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

A QUICK UPDATE SENT OUT FOR TEMPERATURES. I HAVE MOVED THE WAPSI
VALLEY DOWN TO AROUND -20 FOR LOWS TONIGHT...AS WINDS ARE NOT
QUITE AS HIGH AS EARLIER THOUGHT...JUST LOW ENOUGH THAT WE ARE
DECOUPLING IN THAT AREA. AS OF 10 PM...WE ARE ALREADY DOWN TO -9
TO -11 DESPITE THIN CLOUDS. I IMAGINE ANOTHER 10 DEGREES FALL IS
LIKELY WHEN THE CLOUDS MOVE OFF IN A FEW HOURS.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

1040+ MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS
2-3 SIGMA OR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHICH TYPICALLY
CORRELATES WITH NEAR RECORD/RECORD TEMPS... AND CASE IN POINT
THE MAX TEMPS HAVE NEVER BEEN THIS COLD ON MARCH 2ND AT KMLI AND
KDBQ...AND ACTUALLY HIGH TEMPS HAVE NEVER BEEN THIS COLD IN MARCH AT
KMLI AND KDBQ!! SEE CLIMATE SECTION. TEMPS TODAY WITH FRESH
SNOW...STRONG HIGH AND CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUCK MAINLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS... WHICH IS RIDICULOUSLY BELOW NORMAL BY SOME 35-40+ DEGS!
SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. IN ADDITION... A FEW RECORD LOWS WERE
ALSO SET THIS AM OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
EJECTING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS. BAND OF SNOW ATTENDANT TO
STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN ENTRANCE REGION OF 140+ JET FROM
MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES HAS COME CLOSE TO FAR SOUTH BUT DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER INCREASING ON OCCASIONAL GUSTY NORTH WINDS HAS HELD SNOW AT
BAY WITH NORTHERN EDGE ROUGHLY SOUTH OF CHILLICOTHE MO TO QUINCY IL
LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

NEAR RECORD/RECORD TEMPS IN THE OFFING AS 2-3 SIGMA ARCTIC HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE ONE MAIN FLY IN THE MIN TEMP FCST
TONIGHT IS HIGH CLOUDS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH TONIGHT IS SHOWN
TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST FROM CENTRAL MN THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL IA.
CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS TO DROP OFF BELOW 10 KNOTS TONIGHT BUT
YET FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO PREVENT FROM COMPLETE DECOUPLING OR PROLONGED
PERIOD OF CALM WINDS. ALSO... MOST MODEL RH FIELDS UNDERDONE WITH
AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY IN THE PLAINS AHEAD OF EJECTING
SHORTWAVE. WHILE THE HIGH CLOUDINESS NOT OVERLY OPAQUE MAY BE ENOUGH
IN CONCERT WITH WINDS TO MAKE FOR CHALLENGING MIN TEMP FCST AND ONE
THAT BECAUSE OF THE ABOVE FACTORS STAYED CLOSER TO WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE OR EVEN A BIT WARMER. NONETHELESS...STILL PLENTY PLENTY
COLD WITH NEAR RECORD/RECORD COLD IN SOME AREAS... WITH ALL AREAS
BELOW ZERO. THE BITTER COLD TEMPS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 20 BELOW TO AROUND 30 BELOW ZERO
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY EARLY TO MID AM...THUS
HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

MONDAY... ANOTHER CHALLENGING TEMP FCST. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE BUILDING OVERHEAD WITH LIGHT WINDS/LIMITED MIXING. IN ADDITION...
MODELS SUGGEST SOME WARM ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS LIKELY TO
MOVE ACROSS AREA BY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY OPAQUE ENOUGH TO FADE
OR PERHAPS EVEN HIDE AT TIMES THE STRENGTHENING MARCH SUN. ALL OF
THE ABOVE COUPLED WITH THE BITTER COLD AND BELOW ZERO START
SUPPORTS RECOVERY ONLY INTO THE RANGE OF AROUND 10-15 DEGS AT BEST
WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS ESPECIALLY NORTH/WEST OF QUAD CITIES WHERE
TEMPS LIKELY TO BE COLDEST TO START. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUT
RECORD COOL HIGHS IN JEOPARDY AT KDBQ AND KMLI... REFER TO CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON A WARMING TREND THIS WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE VERY LOW
ON THE TIMING/STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF ANY INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN
THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AND BY FRIDAY
MAXIMUM READINGS WILL BE POSSIBLY IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S
SOUTH.

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION BUT CONFIDENCE
VERY LOW DUE TO THE MODELS ALL OVER THE MAP IN REGARDS TO TIMING/
STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES. THE MOST
INTERESTING WAVE IS THE ONE FOR FRIDAY WITH THE GFS/GEM THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. HOWEVER...
TIMING IS EVERYTHING WITH THE GFS BRINGING THIS EVENT INTO THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...AND COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY. THE GEM HAS THE EVENT FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A WARMER DAY
ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SHORT WAVES TRACKING NORTH OF THE CWA
ALL WEEK AND THEN BRINGING IN A STRONGER WAVE ON SATURDAY WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW. ONCE AGAIN...CONFIDENCE VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

VERY QUIET AVIATION WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS BITTERLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OVER THE
MIDWEST. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
DAY MONDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT. ALL VISIBILITIES WILL BE
UNLIMITED...AND CLOUDS WILL BE ABOVE 15000 FT OR CLEAR. OTHER THAN
COLD...THIS REPRESENTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS.
ERVIN


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

RECORD COOL HIGHS FOR MARCH 2...

BOTH OF THE FOLLOWING SET OF RECORDS WERE BROKEN TODAY!

MOLINE.........12 IN 1943
DUBUQUE.........7 IN 1943

RECORD COOL HIGHS FOR MARCH...

MOLINE..........9 IN 1899
DUBUQUE.........6 IN 1900

THESE RECORDS ARE AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 3...

MOLINE.........-8 IN 1884
CEDAR RAPIDS...-9 IN 1913
DUBUQUE........-10 IN 2002
BURLINGTON.....-3 IN 1913

RECORD COOL HIGHS FOR MARCH 3...

MOLINE.........14 IN 1893
DUBUQUE........13 IN 1893

ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN
CLIMATE...ERVIN