000
FXUS63 KDVN 150433
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1133 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WHAT A CONTRAST TODAY...AS WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF A BLUSTERY COLD
WINTER DAY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS...CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S...AND YES...A NARROW POTENT BAND OF SNOW.  THE
NARROW STRIPE OF SNOW IS POSITIONED FROM CENTRAL MO THROUGH
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...AND THOUGH IT IS NOT BEEN ACCUMULATING DUE TO
THE WARM GROUND...IT IS NOW PRODUCING VISIBILITIES UNDER 1 MILE AT
TIMES. IT IS PRODUCING MEASURABLE LIQUID FROM THE SNOW...AND IS
BEING HANDLED WITH CATEGORICAL POPS IN OUR FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

THE SNOW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE PHASING INTO THE TROF
EXITING TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENING PERIOD...IT SHOULD BE IN
OUR FAR EAST...AND SOON EXITING INTO CHICAGOS CWA. ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE GRASS...AND IN MOST PLACES...THIS IS MORE OR
LESS GOING TO WET THE PAVEMENT WHILE LOWERING VISIBILITIES. BEHIND
THIS MESOSCALE BAND OF SNOW...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SUBSIDENCE TAKE
HOLD OF THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL INITIALLY CLEAR OUT
LOWER CLOUDS...AND EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUR HIGH CLOUDS. THUS...BY EARLY
TO MID EVENING...ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BE CLEAR ENOUGH TO SEE THE
LUNAR ECLIPSE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY
COLD NIGHT FOR MID APRIL. IN FACT...A RECORD LOW IS POSSIBLE IN
EVERY SITE EXCEPT CEDAR RAPIDS...AS WE ARE LOOKING TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY...AND COOL. GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE REMARKABLY
COLD FOR A FULL SUN DAY...DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR POOL ALOFT. 850MB
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN -6 SOUTHWEST TO -10 NORTHEAST AT MID
DAY...WHICH IS ROUGHLY WHERE WE ARE TODAY. THE FULL SUN SHOULD
INDUCE DEEP MIXING...AND I HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 40S
SOUTHWEST. I DO WORRY SOME THAT THE MOIST GROUND IN THE NORTH MAY
ALLOW FOR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THERE...AND HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE
COOLER GUIDANCE THERE. WINDS WILL BLOW FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGH MID DAY BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES OCCURRING THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MORNING. BRISK WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS IN QUESTION. THE BETTER FORCING IS ACROSS
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN AND IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THUS IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE DRY.

MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS STILL IN QUESTION ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
THE FORCING SLOWLY INCREASES DURING THE DAY. THURSDAY MORNING MAY BE
DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE BEGINS ARRIVING FROM THE GULF SO
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
THERE ARE STILL DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE MODELS IN HANDLING THE STORM
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ARE
STARTING TO CONVERGE INDICATING RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF THE CURRENT SIGNAL CONTINUES...POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MAY INCREASE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

RAIN WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THE
CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY HAS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES SOUTHEAST REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KTS
WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10KTS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SOUTHERLY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

AREA RIVERS ARE RESPONDING TO THE 2.5 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN THAT FELL
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA OVER THE WEEKEND. RISES WILL BE SEEN ON
ALL RIVERS WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE MAQUOKETA...
WAPSIPINICON...CEDAR...IOWA...ENGLISH...AND SKUNK RIVERS.

SIGNIFICANT RISES WILL ALSO BE SEEN ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS
WATER FLOWS IN FROM TRIBUTARY RIVERS IN IOWA AND FROM UPSTREAM.

PRIOR TO THE RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND THE AREA WAS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY.
SOME OF THE RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND SOAKED INTO THE GROUND AND WILL
NOT BE SEEN AS RUN OFF INTO AREA RIVERS. WHAT IS NOT KNOWN IS HOW
MUCH OF THE RAIN SOAKED INTO THE GROUND.

CURRENT CREST FORECASTS FOR AREA RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE AMOUNT OF RUN OFF FROM THE WEEKEND RAINFALL
BECOMES KNOWN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 15TH

BURLINGTON.....23 IN 1943 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
CEDAR RAPIDS...17 IN 1928
DUBUQUE........21 IN 1928
MOLINE.........22 IN 1928

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...DLF
HYDROLOGY...08
CLIMATE...08