000
FXUS63 KDVN 011732
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 AM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

MID LEVEL CLOUDS ADVANCING EASTWARD OUT OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
IOWA HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING SO FAR THIS MORNING...ALLOWING NEARLY
FULL SUNSHINE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR MID 40S LATE THIS MORNING
DESPITE THE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ON LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES AND DECREASE
AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW NEAR KMKE WITH A TROF/FRONT FROM THE
LOW INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT RAN FROM
UPPER MICHIGAN...INTO NORTHERN IOWA...AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 30S AND 40S FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY WHICH WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT BUT SHOULD STILL
AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL.

TONIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE BUT SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE INTO THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR WEST OF DUBUQUE PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

THE MAIN STORY WITHIN THE EXTENDED REMAINS THE SAME...AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHAT HAS CHANGED IS THAT
THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE LARGE UPPER TROF WILL BE
POSITIVELY TILTED STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FIRST
LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE DAKOTAS TO SWEEP EAST INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA...FORCING THE ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA AT LEAST 24 HOURS
FASTER THAN INDICATED BY A MODEL BLEND YESTERDAY. I FULLY AGREE WITH
THE FASTER FROPA GIVEN THE UPPER FLOW. FOR OUR FORECAST THIS RESULTS
IN AN EVEN LOWER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW...WITH RAIN CHANCES
NORTH MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A BRIEF WINDOW OF RAIN
ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SNOW OR DRY
WEATHER BEYOND.  ONLY THE GFS RETAINS ANY SIGNIFICANT OVER RUNNING
POST FRONTAL ON THURSDAY...AND WE HAVE HELD ONTO LOW POPS SOUTH FOR
THIS INFLUENCE...BUT SHOULD THIS UPPER FLOW OF THE GEM/UKMET/ECMWF
VERIFY...WE WILL BE DRY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLED WEST ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE EARLIER
FRONT...BUT ELSEWHERE...A MORNING HIGH IS STILL LIKELY BEFORE
FALLING READINGS IN THE PM. THURSDAY THOUGH THE WEEKEND...THE STRONG
ARCTIC HIGH WILL SPREAD IN...WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S FOR HIGHS...AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. AT LEAST A LACK OF SNOW COVER SHOULD TAKE THE
EDGE OFF WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN A WELL BELOW ZERO PERIOD COMING UP.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY MORNING WHILE MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOWERING
VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AND HAZE OVERNIGHT AND CURRENT FORECASTS
ARE TRENDED THIS DIRECTION WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT ALL SITES BY
MORNING. LATEST FORECASTS WILL KEEP VISIBILITIES ABOVE 4SM THROUGH
THE MORNING...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS COULD WORSEN
TO IFR AT TIMES FROM MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...SHEETS