000
FXUS63 KDVN 071145
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
545 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS UNDERWAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISING A BIT. 3 AM TEMPERATURES
IN THE CWA RANGED FROM 17 AT IOWA CITY TO 32 AT KEOKUK. THIN
CIRRUS WAS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE GULF MOISTURE WAS
CUT-OFF DUE TO THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
STATES. LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED IN NEB WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
IN SD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON A MUCH WARMER DAY THEN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

TODAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH TO THE
LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH. SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE DUE TO CIRRUS CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLDER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SO HAVE
REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DID
MAINTAIN THE SMALL POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN IN OUR FAR NW CWA.

TONIGHT...KEPT THE LIKELY POPS AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AND A BIT LESS QPF OFF THE MODEL DATA DID LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
TO LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH ACROSS THE CWA. LIGHT RAIN WILL MIX WITH
SOME SLEET AND THEN CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW DURING THE NIGHT BUT FORCING
IS RATHER WEAK SO THIS LOOKS TO BE A MINOR EVENT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 AT INDEPENDENCE TO ABOUT 30 AT MACOMB.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

SPLIT FLOW PATTERN TO START OFF WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN RIGHT LIFT QUADRANT OF MIDWEST TO
GREAT LAKES JET SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN POST FRONTAL
SAT AM SAGGING SWD AND POSSIBLY LINGERING FOR A TIME SAT PM ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH. LIKELY POPS MAY BE NEEDED IN THE AM FOR AREAS MAINLY
NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW
ALTHOUGH NAM SHOWS ENOUGH OF ELEVATED WARM NOSE FOR POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF LIGHT SLEET FAR SOUTH. FGEN FORCING CAN BE QUITE CHALLENGING
FOR SNOW AMOUNTS AS WE/VE SEEN RECENTLY... BUT FOR NOW MODELS SHOW
WEAK LAPSE RATES WHICH COUPLED WITH OVERALL WEAK FORCING AND
MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS THAN AN INCH OF
ACCUM AND MOST AREAS THAT SEE ANY SNOW LIKELY JUST ONLY A DUSTING TO
HALF INCH. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SAT PM SHOWN TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM
THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VLY BUT
STAYING JUST SOUTH OF AREA. HIGHS SAT SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD 30S WITH
FEW SPOTS FAR NORTHWEST POSSIBLY STAYING IN THE UPPER 20S.

SAT NGT...REAL CHALLENGING LOW TEMP FCST. SFC HIGH PASSES QUICKLY
ACROSS AREA IN THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY DEVELOPING AND INCREASING
S/SW WINDS OVERNIGHT IN RETURN FLOW AND STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF ONTARIO LOW AND NORTHERN PLAINS FRONTAL ZONE.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS IN THE EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO DROP OFF THEN LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR RISE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY NORTH HALF BEING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT. OVERALL HAVE LOWS AROUND 10 NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH AND
IF CURRENT TIMING HOLDS COULD SEE NEEDING TO NUDGE THESE UP IN THE
NORTH AND NUDGE DOWN IN THE SOUTH.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY STILL ON TRACK TO SEE NICE WARMING TREND AND A LOT
OF MELTING SNOW. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH SUNSHINE SHOULD
BOOST TEMPS IN THE 40S MANY AREAS WITH SOME LOWER 50S SOUTH. NEXT
FRONT TO STAY NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY WINDS STAYED AT OR JUST ABOVE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND
COULD SEE MANY AREAS STAYING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK ALL
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A NICE
START FROM WHICH TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB FURTHER ON MONDAY AHEAD OF FRONT
WITH AID OF COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 40S NORTH
TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.

TUE-THU... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH PATTERN AND FEATURES GIVEN
LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES. 00Z HI-RES ECMWF CONTINUES CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS 12Z/6TH RUN IN SHOWING A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE
MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. PRIOR TO PAST 2 RUNS THOUGH THE ECMWF
MODEL HAS SHOWN VERY POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY... LIKE NEARLY ALL
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. GFS HAS GONE AWAY FROM STORM AND NOW
SHOWS BAND OF FRONTOGENETICALLY ENHANCED POST FRONTAL SNOW
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CWA TUE-TUE NGT. GEM SIMILAR AND UKMET TRENDING
TOWARDS GEM AND GFS. DESPITE THE TRACK/STRENGTH STILL WELL IN DOUBT
THE SIGNAL FOR TUE-WED BEING NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN STARTING TO BECOME
FAIRLY CONSISTENT. LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND IMMEDIATELY BEYOND LOOKS
LIKE TEMPS TO GO BACK BELOW NORMAL IN ALL TO FAMILIAR NORTHWEST FLOW
CLIPPER TYPE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

VFR CONDS TODAY THEN MVFR CIGS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME LIGHT
RAIN MAY MIX WITH SLEET AND THEN CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE