000
FXUS63 KDVN 231944
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
244 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Seasonally quite strong Canadian High Pressure bringing cooler temperatures
on breezy NW winds under a variably cloudy sky. Temperatures are in
the lower 80s SE to the lower 70s NW as cold air spills in. Upstream
shows at 2 PM CDT temperatures mostly in the mid/upper 60s in the plains.
Upper pattern shows below normal temperatures and dry next few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Short term forecast confidence assessment...good or above average.
Main issues are chance of isolated showers in PM Saturday far north
may be overdone due to lower dewpoints. Secondary issue is breezy
northwest winds mid to late day on Saturday. Area lows tonight and
highs should generally be within 3 degrees of forecast.

Tonight...areas of cumulus and strato-cumulus should dissipate by
mid evening with diminishing northwest winds to 5 to 10 MPH. Area
lows should be in the lower 50s northwest to the upper 50s southeast
sections. This is 7 to 10 degrees below normal.

Saturday...generally mostly sunny skies with some PM cumulus and
low risk of isolated brief showers mid to late PM along highway 20
that may be overdone is get good mixing. Local techniques suggest
winds of 15 to 25 MPH with some gusts near 30 MPH possible along
highway 20 for mixing and lowering dewpoints into the mid to upper
40s suggested. Highs should be in the lower 70s north to the mid
70s central and south. This will be at least 10 degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.The Canadian high pressure responsible for a free air mass vacation
north will persist over the Midwest through Monday. There remains
energy passing southeast in the upper flow and with diurnal
instability each afternoon, we cannon totally rule out a passing
shower, and a lightning bolt or two will also be possible. As
mentioned yesterday, even if you are hit by one of these, the dry
air should quickly evaporate any wetness, and a return to a partly
cloudy day in the mid 60s to mid 70s will commence.

A look at record lows shows that we will be close Sunday morning,
and again Sunday late evening, as temps could drop to the upper 40s
north, but by Monday, the records are colder, and our forecast is
solidly 5 to 8 degrees higher than records.

Looking beyond, to Tuesday through late week, the global models
continue to show a strong surge of warm advection on the back side
of the Canadian high, with fast zonal flow aloft. The pattern favors
a return to normal temperatures and humidity, along with a threat
of thunderstorms. One or more strong MCS are possible, especially
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, and again Friday into
Saturday. Any severe weather threat will need to wait a few more
days to be highlighted, but at least a seasonal risk seems
plausible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Seasonably cool high pressure will bring VFR conditions with fair skies
for at least the next 24 hours. Winds will be northwesterly at 10 to
20+ MPH this afternoon and again on Saturday, decreasing to 5 to 10
MPH tonight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Record Lows for June 25...

Moline.........46 in 1972
Cedar Rapids...43 in 1936
Dubuque........41 in 1887
Burlington.....49 in 1972

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nichols
SHORT TERM...Nichols
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Nichols
CLIMATE...Ervin