656
FXUS63 KDVN 030528
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1228 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A low chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon and
  evening on Thursday. A storm or two could become strong to
  severe, with winds as the main hazard.

- The Fourth of July is forecast to be hot and humid with
  temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat indices near 100.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Surface high pressure is currently centered over the Ohio River
delta this afternoon, helping to keep this afternoon warm and dry.
That being said, a remnant mesoscale convective system will approach
areas south of I-80. This could throw a wrench in the forecast with
at least a small threat of a thunderstorm or two. While unlikely to
occur, confidence is not high enough to rule this out. Temperatures
climb a few degrees into the upper 80s this afternoon. Overnight a
weak disturbance passes through the region, setting up a weak
surface boundary. Southwest flow over this weak boundary ahead of
this disturbance is expected to result in a low (10-30%) chance of
thunderstorms across the I-380 corridor overnight. With modest mid-
level lapse rates and wind shear, at least a Marginal Risk (Level 1
of 5) of severe weather is possible. Hail and winds are the main
hazards should severe weather develop. Any thunderstorms weaken and
dissipate around sunrise. Temperatures continue their warming trend,
reaching the low 90s by the afternoon. Another weak disturbance
passes through the region during the afternoon and evening. An
additional low (10-30%) chance of thunderstorms is forecast for
areas north of I-80 as a result. At least a Marginal Risk (Level 1
of 5) of severe thunderstorms continues, though mainly for hazardous
winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

A relatively warm and muggy start to the day on Friday signals a
warm holiday afternoon and evening. The Fourth of July will be hot
as low 90s and relatively humid conditions are anticipated across
the area. This combination of temperatures and relative humidity
push heat indices to near 100. In this heat, practice heat safety
and take precautions, especially with outdoor activities during the
holiday. Friday evening remains dry as a passing ridge offers a lull
in the thunderstorm chances. This lull is brief as a more active
weather pattern takes shape across the Upper Midwest. A series of
disturbances are forecast to pass through the area heading through
this weekend and into the following week. The first and strongest of
these disturbances arrives Saturday afternoon. This coincides with
peak heating. Temperatures reach the upper 80s and low 90s with
humid dewpoints in the low 70s. A medium (40-70%) chance as
thunderstorms takes shape as this features moves east heading into
Sunday. Given the summer-time instability, a severe threat may
develop, but it is currently too soon to discuss these details. As
this first disturbance begins to exit the area later in the day on
Sunday, slightly cooler temperatures in the upper 80s return.

Heading into the first half of next week, afternoon temperatures
remain in the mid to upper 80s each day. Continued passing
disturbances maintain at least a low (20-40%) chance of
thunderstorms for the region. The timing of thunderstorms is
anticipated to be focused on the afternoon and evening hours each
day. Their remains an off chance that a decaying convective system
from the Great Plains makes it into our region during the nighttime
hours, but this remains highly uncertain. With continued
thunderstorms through much of the forecast, beneficial rainfall
should improve rainfall deficits across portions of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with light
and variable winds to start, becoming south-southwesterly
around 5-10 KTs after 15z. There will be low-end chances (<25%)
for an isolated shower/storm, mainly at DBQ or CID early in this
period, then once again after 18z. Although, confidence remains
low and opted to leave out of the TAFs at the moment.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NWS
LONG TERM...NWS
AVIATION...Gunkel