Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 190424
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1124 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Aloft, broad long wave trough over the Great Lakes and upper
Mississippi Valley. At the surface, cold front has moved into the
Ohio Valley and northwest wind is advecting dry air into the mid
Mississippi Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Concerns in the short term are few.  Cold air aloft combined with
afternoon heating will result in some instability and potential for
showers or a few t-storms the rest of this afternoon and again
Monday afternoon.  Better chance will occur Monday as a stronger
short wave passes by.  While there will be a broad area of
instability, lack of a focus and limited moisture will not support
severe storms.

Otherwise, exceptionally nice weather for late June.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Temperatures will warm through the week before cooling down again
for the weekend. The overall weather pattern looks to remain active
with brief periods of quiet weather.

Any convection that develops Monday afternoon will quickly dissipate
with sunset leaving most of the are dry during the evening. After
midnight and into Tuesday morning, an upper level disturbance will
move through the area. Moisture is somewhat limited but forcing is
respectable which may be enough to generate some scattered rain
showers over the northeast half of the area.

Tuesday afternoon/night quiet and dry conditions will be seen across
the area as high pressure quickly moves through the Midwest.

On Wednesday, moisture will begin moving back into the area.
Nocturnal convection that develops Tuesday night looks to catch the
northwest half of the area Wednesday morning. Internally the models
are reasonably consistent with this signal but differ on the details.

Wednesday night on...

Wednesday night through Thursday night southerly flow will be seen
across the area. Internally, the models are indicating the potential
for several rounds of organized thunderstorm complexes to affect the
Midwest. However, there are differences regarding the overall
details. Part of this difference has to do with where an approaching
cold front will stall in the Midwest.

Right now the model consensus has mainly chance to likely pops
across the area with the higher pops generally across the north half
of the area. Right now the better chances for rain looks to be
Thursday night.

Friday/Friday night...The organized thunderstorm complex that
develops Thursday night will exit the area Friday morning.
Boundaries left over from this complex combined will allow
additional thunderstorms to develop Friday afternoon and night. The
model consensus has slight chance to chance pops for the area.

Saturday and Sunday...The models agree that much cooler conditions
will be seen next weekend as the flow aloft comes from the
northwest. Weak disturbances in this flow may provide just enough
forcing to generate rain showers if sufficient moisture is present.
Right now the model consensus has slight chance to chance pops.
However, a large portion of the area will likely remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

VFR conditions to prevail with fair skies as Canadian high pressure
moves in. Northwest winds of 5 to 10 MPH overnight will increase to
10 to 20 mph during the day Monday before diminishing around
sunset.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DMD
SHORT TERM...DMD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Nichols



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