Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 220822
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
322 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

High pressure ridge over eastern IA providing clear skies and
light winds across the cwa. 3 am temperatures ranged from the
upper 40s to the upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Today, another fantastic spring day with high pressure ridge
gradually shifting into IL by late afternoon. Forecast soundings
indicate mixing not quite as deep as yesterday (up to about 780 mb
today compared to 700 mb yesterday). However, with a very dry
column and convective temperatures in the mid 90s nary a cloud in
the sky expected. This should push afternoon readings into the
lower 80s at many locations, with a couple of spots (including
MLI) reaching 84 or so.

Tonight, dry airmass and clear skies again as the ridge axis will
be over IL keeping our counties near and east of the MS river in
light winds. In this regime a large diurnal swing can be expected
so will follow the coolest guidance. However, in the western cwa
the return southeast flow will keep readings a bit warmer than
guidance. Therefore, minimum temperatures should range from the
upper 40s to lower 50s east to the mid to upper 50s west.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Warm and wet weather is the main theme of the long term forecast
period, with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.

On Monday, expect warm temperatures in the low 80s, with an
increasing south wind boosting dewpoints into the 50s. Model trends
look similar to runs from yesterday. The western fringe of the
forecast area is in the marginal risk area, where moderate
instability but weak deep layer shear will be located. Although an
isolated severe storm can`t be completely discounted, the overall
threat is very low. Much of the rain will likely hold off until
Monday evening, initially across eastern Iowa. The GFS and ECMWF are
indicating some potential for a decaying MCS to impact portions of
the forecast area early Tuesday. Temperatures will remain above
normal Tuesday with increasing deep layer moisture and surface
dewpoints well into the 60s likely. South and west portions of the
forecast area are outlooked in the slight risk area Tuesday, where
more favorable deep layer shear supports a higher threat for more
organized severe storms.

Looking ahead, expect more of the same with persistent southwest
flow aloft and periods of showers and storms every day through
Saturday. Additional windows for severe storms are likely, although
specifics are difficult to determine that far out. There is higher
confidence in periods of locally heavy rain. Synoptic models are in
agreement in generating widespread 1 to 2 inch rains, and possibly
higher, through the entire period. The predictability regarding
impacts to specific basins is low, but hydro issues may become more
of a concern as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Sunday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Vfr conditions will persist through the forecast period.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...RP Kinney
AVIATION...McClure


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