Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 180519
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1119 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 313 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Low pressure was located in northeast Kansas with a warm front
into central MO. Strongest 3hr pressure falls of 4-5 mb were
noted in eastern IA into southern IL. Temperatures ranged from the
upper 30s to mid 40s in the dvn cwa, to the 70s and 80s in the
central and southern Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Forecast focus on strong storm system.

Tonight: Rain will become widespread (along with areas of fog) as
strong low level moisture transport and large scale ascent continue
to spread into the dvn cwa. Continued to mention isolated
thunderstorms in our southern and eastern counties after midnight
when deeper moisture and even stronger forcing arrives. Low
pressure will be tracking across northern MO into central IL,
pulling a strong cold front southeast into the dvn cwa after
midnight. Northwest winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts
to 30 mph behind the front. Lows will range from 34 at
Independence to 43 at Macomb.

Saturday: Will follow the consistent NAMNEST in turning the rain
over to snow in the morning (from west to east) due to dynamic
cooling, similar to the event last Sunday. However, with
temperatures in the mid 30s as the snow is falling, only minor
accumulation is expected on grassy or elevated surfaces. It is
possible a few spots may receive up to 1/2 inch of slushy accumulation.
The roads should remain wet, but visibilities will be reduced in
any heavier bursts of snow. After the snow comes to an end the
temperatures may actually rise several degrees before falling
again later in the afternoon. Northwest winds will gust to 35 to
40 mph during the day as the cyclone deepens as it tracks into the
eastern Great Lakes region by later in the day. The precipitation
will exit our far eastern counties by late afternoon or sunset.
High temperatures should range from the upper 30s to lower 40s,
but wind chills will be in the 20s.

For this event rainfall amounts or water equivalent should total
1/4 to 1/2 inch over much of the cwa, with a few spots possibly up
to 3/4 inch. Haase

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Saturday night, any lingering rain or snow should be east of the far
eastern counties by sunset, with a dry, breezy and cold night to
follow. If there (big IF), is any lingering snow on the ground, some
locally colder temperatures could occur, but for now, will go lower
to mid 20s from north to south.

Sunday will be mainly under the influence of cold high pressure in
the wake of the system, but with the progressive west to northwest
flow pattern in place, strong dry warm advection will result in a
milder day already Monday, in the upper 40s to mid 50s.  The work
week will see several more quick roller coaster temperature
trends, as northwest flow continues, but no rain or snow chances.
This results in a cold day again for Tuesday night into Wednesday,
as a 1040+ high moves into the plains, but with the progressive
pattern, Thanksgiving looks more mild, with highs back in the 40s.
Other than some breezy and cold conditions in the transitions,
there should be no travel problems during the Thanksgiving travel
period. Ervin

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

A passing cold front will keep mostly IFR/LIFR conditions through 18/16Z
with episodes of rain, drizzle, and fog and light northeast to north
winds increasing to 10 to 20 mph by 18/10Z. After 18/15Z, the rain
may mix with or briefly change to a wet snow at DBQ/CID/MLI terminals
until 18/18Z. Skies will clear by 18/20Z with VFR conditions and
windy NW winds of 20 to 30+ mph.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Nichols


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