Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 262030
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...
LINKED TO A DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL KS/NEB BORDER
REGION...REMAINED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM FAR NE MO
ARCHING SE TO FAR SOUTHERN IL. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES
WERE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S...WHILE 80S WERE
WIDESPREAD TO ITS SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. OUTSIDE OF A SLOW MOVING NW TO SE ORIENTED AXIS OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS IN AN ELEVATED BAND OF WARM ADVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE REGION. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE WAS NEARLY OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON.
A SHORTWAVE RIPPLE ADVANCING IN THE W-SW FLOW OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WAS PRODUCING ONLY A FEW CI OVER KS. HIGH PRESSURE AT 850 MB
WAS OVER THE TX/LA GULF REGION AT 12Z...BLOCKING GULF MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
CYCLONE IN THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SENDS A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE THROUGH THE REGION.

OVERALL...THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE INITIALLY MOISTURE
STARVED. AS A RESULT...THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS ADVERTISED TONIGHT WITH LITTLE
IMPACT OUTSIDE SHIFTING WINDS AND SOMEWHAT NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. AN AXIS OF 3 TO 4 MB PRESSURE FALLS OVER WESTERN IA INTO
WESTERN MN AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SUGGESTS GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL THEN VEER FROM SE TO
SOUTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH SHOULD REACH THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR BY MORNING. WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE AND BULK OF
THE CONVERGENCE OF THE ROUGHLY 40 KT 850 MB JET FOCUSING WELL TO THE
NORTH IN MN AND WI...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS TOO LOW TO MENTION AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE THRESHOLDS. WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST IN THE FAR NW AND
THEN WEST TOWARD MORNING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD
TO FOG AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY WORDING. AFTER AN EVENING DIURNAL
DROPOFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN RISE A BIT AS
THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH...WHICH COULD
POSSIBLY LEAD TO A RECORD WARM LOW AT ESPECIALLY MLI...AS
REFERENCED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.

MONDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
GREATEST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE MORNING...MODELS HAVE A PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE
SUBSIDENCE AND WITH NO SURFACE BOUNDARIES OR SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
AND HAVE THUS REMOVED POPS. MID LEVEL FORCING THEN INCREASES BY
AFTERNOON WITH BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MOVING IN
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD EVENING. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY REACH THE 70S OVER MOST
OF THE AREA. IF CLOUDS REMAIN ABSENT IN THE WARM SECTOR...
TEMPERATURES WOULD REACH THE 80S OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST...AS
WAS OCCURRING TODAY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS WOULD BE CLOSE
TO RECORD TERRITORY...AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND RARITY FOR
LATE OCTOBER...HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSERVATIVE MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 70 NW TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

THE MAIN LOW WILL MOVE UP THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER
FORCING IS ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT SO THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
BE BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...ANY LINGERING RAIN IN THE FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL END BY
MID MORNING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES. BREEZY CONDITIONS COMBINED
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN BRISK CONDITIONS UNTIL
WINDS DECREASE AROUND SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY  NIGHT ON...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST BUT MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED...AND...THE
FORCING IS QUITE WEAK. IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS...IT WOULD BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR GETTING
PULLED DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT. IF ENOUGH COLD AIR IS IN PLACE AND
TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE...ONE CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX
DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST AREAS.

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL
BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL...AND...
LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING MAY BE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...THE CANADIAN HIGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS DOES HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN THE RETURN FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA WILL RESULT IN LITTLE
MORE THAN A SHIFT IN WINDS FROM EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY
TRIGGERED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE APPEAR MOST LIKELY WELL NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS. THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN AT
LEAST MVFR LEVEL FOG...WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT DBQ AND CID FOR
A PERIOD EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

RECORD WARM MINIMUMS FOR OCTOBER 27...

MOLINE.........56 IN 1900
DUBUQUE........59 IN 1927

RECORD HIGHS FOR OCTOBER 27...

MOLINE.........84 IN 1927
CEDAR RAPIDS...86 IN 1927
DUBUQUE........83 IN 1927
BURLINGTON.....83 IN 1927

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...SHEETS






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