Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 161127
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
527 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 312 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

06Z surface data has the cold front from northern Ohio into Oklahoma
with high pressure over the Plains. Dew points were in the 40s and
higher east and south of the front with 20s and 30s from the Great
Lakes into the Central Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Radar has weak echoes over the area associated with some forcing
aloft but the atmosphere below the cloud layer is quite dry. Thus
through sunrise flurries may or may not be seen south of a Kewanee,
IL to Ottumwa, IA line.

During the daylight hours on Friday mainly dry conditions will be
seen across the area with clearing skies, decreasing winds,
and much colder conditions.

Tonight, quiet and dry conditions will be seen as high pressure
quickly moves through the Midwest.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Trend toward unsettled weather this weekend and especially early
next week the main issues.

Long term forecast confidence assessment...fair or average.  Main
issues are 2 fold. First, light snow chances with warm frontal
passage Saturday. Second, is risk of decent precipitation chances
that may be close to area early next week with some risk of thunder
with solution variances too high to have any confidence for at least
another 24 hours.

Saturday and Saturday night...warmer with highs into the 30s to
around 40F south with flurries and chance of light snow, mostly
north with any amounts likely less than an inch suggested until mid
afternoon then clearing. Hence, little or no winter weather impacts
expected at this time. Lows with clearing and light winds in the
upper teens to middle 20s.

Sunday and Monday...above normal temperatures with highs in the 40s
to 50s, possibly 60s south on Monday with increasing chances of rain
and possibly isolated thunder by Monday with mainly light to locally
moderate rain totals suggested. Lows mostly in the 30s until cold
front passes late Monday night, then possible flurries or very snow
as cold air moves in with little or no snow accumulations.

Tuesday through Friday...colder and mostly dry to dry with highs inn
the 20s and 30s and lows teens and 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

MVFR conditions will improve to VFR through 18z/16 as high
pressure builds into the Midwest. After 18z/16 VFR conditions will
continue.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...Nichols
AVIATION...08


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