Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 260946

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
346 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Warm air advection, combined with a couple of upper air
disturbances, was producing mid/high level clouds across the area.
Temperatures were in the mid to upper 20s, with a south wind 10 to
15 mph.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Warmer temperatures but quiet in the short term.

Today: Warm air advection will gradually move off to our east
allowing for a decrease in the mid/high level clouds. However, an
upper level disturbance coming out of KS will keep the clouds
lingering for much of the day in our southern counties, while the
northern cwa sees more sunshine. While forecast soundings indicate
the low levels to be quite dry, there is the possibility of a few
sprinkles in the south with the wave moving through this afternoon.
However, confidence is low and for now will keep the forecast dry.
With a southwest wind, along with an increase in sunshine, temperatures
will be warmer than yesterday. Afternoon highs should range from
the lower 40s to around 50. Southwest winds will be gusting to 25
to 30 mph later this morning into the afternoon.

Tonight: With partly cloudy skies and rather light winds went with
the "middle of the road" approach to minimum temperatures. The MAV
seemed too cold (what little snow is left will have melted) while
the MET seemed too warm (considering light winds).

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

An active zonal upper level flow early in the will provide a return
to above normal temperatures with precipitation, mostly in the form
of rain, likely with a storm system Tuesday and Wednesday. A
temporary shift to a more northwesterly flow that follows for late
week will cool temperatures closer to early March normals, followed
by warmer temperatures into next weekend.

The main focus is on Tuesday`s system, which spreads rain into the
region Monday night. The warm front out ahead of the approaching low
is likely to push north of the forecast area Tuesday morning and
highs have been increased to range from the lower 50s north to mid
60s in the far south. The best chance for rain is kept across the
north and east. Thunderstorms have been added to this warm sector in
the afternoon and evening across the southeast where SPC has a
marginal risk for day three (Tuesday into Tuesday night) for the
area roughly southeast of a line from Walnut IL through Burlington
IA to Memphis MO, which will be monitored closely over the next
couple days. There are still variations among the operational models
with the timing and track of the associated main surface low, which
pushes through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday spreading
widespread rainfall, which may change to at least a period of snow
on the back edge. Forecast confidence remains low with the potential
for a wintry mix or snow showers in the cold air advection NW winds
as the system exits Wednesday.

Cooler temperatures follow for Thursday and Friday with a chance for
precipitation in the form rain or snow as clipper-like system pushes
through late Thursday into Thursday night. The upper level trough
and NW flow pushes east by Saturday with the a resulting low level
warm advection pattern returning highs to the 50s and possibly 60s
Saturday and Sunday if the warmer ECMWF is correct.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Vfr conditions to persist through the TAF cycle. There is a low
risk of LLWS around daybreak, mainly at CID and DBQ. However,
the LLWS is based on largely the NAM which is a strong outlier
depicting westerly winds at 40-50 kts around 2kft agl toward 12z.
The general consensus is more marginal criteria with around
20-30 kts at 2kft agl, and therefore left out any mention of LLWS
with 06z TAFs. Otherwise, s/sw surface winds will increase by mid
to late morning at 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts, then diminish
to light westerly Sunday evening.


Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Area rivers are on the rise due to recent rainfall and snowmelt.
Along the tributaries, flooding is currently forecast for only the
Cedar River at Conesville, where the river is expected to crest
around one half foot above flood stage on Tuesday and a flood
warning remains in effect through Wednesday.

More significant rises are likely along the Mississippi River, with
long range forecasts showing at least minor flooding possible from
New Boston through Burlington as early as March 3. Most other
forecast points are on a forecast trajectory to reach or exceed at
least action stage during the first week of March. These forecasts
will continue to undergo at least minor adjustments with time as the
amount of snowmelt and runoff from forecast rain in the next week
becomes better known.




LONG TERM...Sheets
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