Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 010754
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
254 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER MIDWEST UNDER WARM AND A BIT MUGGY CONDITIONS AT 2 AM DUE TO
SOUTH WINDS AND UPPER RIDGING. AREA TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND. UPSTREAM ENERGY SHOWS RIDGING
TO STAY IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE OR NO
CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. PERSISTENCE MAIN FEATURE WHICH SUGGEST
SOME TENDENCY FOR LOWS TO BE A FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH AND ALSO HIGHS
A DEGREE OR SO TOO HIGH SOME LOCATIONS.

TODAY...MINOR CHANGES WITH A FAIR AND VERY WARM TO HOT DAY AND MUGGY
WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WOULD BE ROUGHLY
IN THE 87 TO 91 DEGREE RANGE. AREA DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES WILL
ALLOW FOR HEAT INDICES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR SEVERAL
HOURS TODAY. NO POPS TODAY BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM LIKE YESTERDAY
IN ILLINOIS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN MID PM HOURS AS HIGHS SHOULD
BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES FOR LATER SHIFTS
TO MONITOR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

TONIGHT...FAIR AND ONCE AGAIN WARM AND A BIT MUGGY WITH LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 60S WITH SOME ISOLATED MID 60S POSSIBLE IF BL DECOUPLING
OCCURS AND HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG FOR LATER SHIFTS TO RECONSIDER.
SOUTH WINDS OF AROUND 5 MPH EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.   IT APPEARS THAT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE NEXT
CHANCE WE WILL HAVE FOR APPRECIABLE PRECIP.  THE LATEST MODELS HAVE
COME IN SLOWER WITH THE WAVE AND PRECIP.  TEMPERATURES DURING THE
WEEK WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A...A VORT MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL MN AND N WI.  THIS VORTMAX COULD TRIGGER DAYTIME CONVECTION
THAT SHOULD WANE AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN.  THE H85 JET IS TO OUR
WEST AND THERE IS A LACK OF A FRONT TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTION MUCH
AFTER THE SUN SETS.  THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO HAVE QPF BLOW UP BETWEEN
00Z AND 0Z THU.  I DO NOT THINK THIS IS REASONABLE.  I WONDER IF
THIS IS A PROBLEM WITH THE CONVECTIVE SCHEME.  HIRES GUIDANCE KEEPS
MOST OF THE QPF NORTH OF OUR AREA CLOSER TO THE VORTMAX WHICH MAKES
SENSE.  AS A RESULT WENT WITH NO POPS AND A SMALL AREA OF SCHC
ACROSS MY NORTH.

THIS WEEKEND...MODELS HAVE COME IN AGREEMENT WITH A RIDGE MOVING
INTO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL KEEP US
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THRU SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING COOLER
TEMPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK.  SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.  AT THIS TIME IT
REMAINS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE IF A SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM.  IT IS FORECAST TO BE ONE OF THE STRONGER SYSTEM WE
HAVE SEEN AND WITH THE MONSOONAL FLOW UP INTO OUR AREA...CANNOT RULE
OUT HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A WEAK FLOW UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND
STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL AGAIN LEAD TO FOG...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO AS
THICK OR EXTENSIVE AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
AROUND MIDNIGHT ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MVFR AT MOST SITES BETWEEN
09Z AND 14Z. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITIES BELOW
3SM...ESPECIALLY AT CID AND DBQ AS INDICATED IN TEMPO GROUPS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY BY MID MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...SHEETS



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