Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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932
FXUS63 KDVN 111252
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
652 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 229 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE SKY WAS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...AS A BAND OF LOWER
CLOUDS CONTINUED TO ERODE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. A BROAD RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE LATEST IN A SERIES
OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE RECENT CLEAR TREND. FOR
TODAY...EXPECT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOW 20S...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.

THE CLIPPER WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY AFTER 6
PM THIS EVENING. CONSENSUS QPF AND WITH SLR`S AROUND 15 TO 1
YIELD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM A LIGHT DUSTING IN THE FREEPORT
AREA...AROUND A HALF INCH FROM CEDAR RAPIDS TO THE QUAD
CITIES...AND AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. CLOUDS AND SLIGHT WAA SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 10 TO 18 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FRIDAY...ANY AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES SHOULD DIMINISH NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BEFORE 6 AM SETTING UP A DRY DAY.

COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN DEPARTING SFC LOW AND
APPROACHING STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
FRIDAY MORNING MEANING TEMP FORECAST IS NOW NEARLY IDENTICAL TO
THURSDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST INTO THE MID TEENS FAR NORTH...LOWER
20S ALONG I-80...AND MID 20S FAR SOUTH. 850MB TEMPS WILL START
FALLING DURING THE MORNING REACHING NEAR -20C BY LATE AT NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND GUST AROUND 30 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF THE CWA...WIND CHILLS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
COLDER IN THE PAST FEW FORECAST UPDATES...COLDEST FORECAST VALUES
ARE ALONG HIGHWAY 20 AND ARE AS COLD AS THE MID 20S BELOW ZERO FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SFC AIR TEMPS ARE FORECAST
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DVN CWA AND
A FEW DEGREES COLDER TO THE NORTH.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...COLDEST DAY IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CURRENT
FORECAST HIGH TEMPS ARE ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID TEENS FAR SOUTH...LOWER TEENS ALONG I-80...AND UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS QUICKLY.
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. 925/850MB PLOTS DISPLAY A STRUCTURED WIND FIELD
CONDUCIVE FOR NORTHWARD WV TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF UP INTO
THE MIDWEST. 00Z/2.11 GFS/ECMWF NOW IN AGREEMENT ON BETTER
ORGANIZATION AS IS THE MOST RECENT 06Z/2.11 NAM. POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE AS MEASURABLE PRECIP IS
LOOKING MORE LIKELY. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS MAY CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF ANY SNOW THAT FALLS.

PRECIP...COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO INCREASE QPF FOR THIS
EVENT TO MORE RESEMBLE THE CONSRAW WHICH IS ABOVE THE SUPERBLEND.
DETAILS REGARDING EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE YET TO BE WORKED OUT
BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE A HIGH RATIO/POWDERY SNOW. NAM/ECMWF HAVE
COLDER THERMAL PROFILES THAN THE GFS.

MONDAY...HIGH TEMPS ARE TRICKY BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR FRESH
SNOW COVER WHICH COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN. CONSENSUS IS FOR NEAR 30 F
NORTH...LOWER 30S ALONG I-80...AND UPPER 30S FAR SOUTH. 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 528 DAM TO -4C.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WARMING TREND CONTINUES...EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OR TWO OF
COUNTIES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER 30S. ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA MAINLY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MODELS SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF BEING ON THE STRONGER SIDE. SOMETHING TO WATCH
OVER THE COMING DAYS. UTTECH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE
ARRIVAL OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND SOME LIGHT SNOW. KDBQ MAY ONLY
HAVE FLURRIES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY. KCID/KMLI/KBRL
WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -SN...WITH PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS
FAVORED AT KBRL. TIMING OF ONSET EXPECTED BETWEEN 03Z-06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY



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