Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 080847
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
347 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS...AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL IOWA. LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS
HAVE THE CURRENT TRENDS MODELED WELL AND PUSH ANY LINGERING STORM
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

FOR TODAY EXPECT NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS GUSTING IN THE 20S AND A
COOLER AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
FORECAST IN THE MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S FAR SOUTH. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO BROKEN AFTERNOON CUMULUS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS
KEEP MEASURABLE RAIN JUST NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST GRIDS DRY FOR NOW. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S/LOW 60S.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL KEEP THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD
DRY AS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW RELAXES AND A LARGE AREA OF LLVL
RIDGING ESTABLISHES AND SLIDES ACRS THE REGION FROM WEST-TO-EAST.
HIGHS WED ONLY IN THE 70S WITH DPTS DRY DOWN-MIXED AND MAINTAINED IN
THE 50S. CROP EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL WANT TO BATTLE THIS PROCESS
AND POSSIBLY PUSH DPTS BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S IN SOME RURAL
LOCATIONS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART A LOW HUMIDITY DAY. WITH RIDGE
CENTER OVERHEAD AND WEAK TO CLAM SFC WINDS FOR MUCH OF WED NIGHT...IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW COOL WE GET INTO EARLY THU MORNING.
LOWS COULD BE WELL DOWN IN THE 50S IN MANY AREAS...WITH RVR VALLEY
FOG AND HEAVY DEW BY DAWN THU. THE SEASONABLY STRONG ANTICYCLONE
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW WARMING SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL
RETURN FLOW ON THU...HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA BUT STILL RATHER SEASONABLY DRY/LOW SFC
DPTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. FLATTENED STEERING FLOW ACRS THE
NORTHERN CONUS WILL LOOK TO BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN WITH UPPER WAVE
INGEST OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND INLAND ACRS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND PLAINS. LATEST SUITE OF 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL HAVE
THEIR DIFFERENCES...BUT MOST ARE SUGGESTING DEVELOPING THTA-E RICH
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ OF 40-50 KTS TO FEED UP TO THE LEE OF
THIS WAVE PROGRESSION AND ALONG TIGHTENING RETURN FLOW LLVL BOUNDARY
FOR THE FORMATION OF A MCS TYPE FEATURE ACRS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD INTO OR VERY NEAR THE EITHER BY LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI
MORNING. THE 00Z NAM IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH MCS DIRECT HIT THU
NIGHT...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE SLOWER AND MAY HAVE THE
SYSTEM COMING ACRS MORE FRI MORNING AND INTO THE DAY. THESE LATER
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST A MATURE AND POSSIBLY SEVERE MCS COMING ACRS
DURING DAYTIME HEATING...AND A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. WILL KEEP HIGH CHC
POPS GOING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THU NIGHT IN THE WEST...AND WALK
THEM ACRS INTO FRI ACRS THE REST OF THE AREA FOR NOW. BUT STILL SOME
TIME AND ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS NEEDED TO REFINE THIS POTENTIAL MCS
WINDOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE SIGNS OF UPPER RIDGE
RIDING WAVE ENERGY...UPPER LEVEL JET TRENDS AND PHASING PROCESSES TO
TRY AND SCOUR OUT ANOTHER COOL CORE L/W UPPER TROF OR EVEN VORTEX
TYPE FEATURE FROM THE WESTERN HUDSON BAY DOWN TOWARD THE NORTHERN
GRT LKS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS PROCESS...LLVL
BAROCLINIC BATTLE ZONE MAY LAY OUT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...TO
THE SW GRT LKS INTO THE NORTHERN OH RVR VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND FOR
OCCASIONAL CHC/S OF STORM CLUSTERS OR EVEN MCS GENERATION IN OR
CLOSE TO THE LOCAL FCST AREA SAT INTO SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO CARRY CHC
POPS THROUGH OUT. MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE MAIN
COLD PUSH ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING TROF TO THE NORTH WILL STILL
HAVE TO BE BETTER TIMED AND DEFINED...BUT THIS COULD BE ANOTHER
MAJOR PRECIP GENERATOR. THE 00Z GFS TARGETS THIS FRONT SWEEPING
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS THE FROPA WINDOW
MORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL SIDE WITH MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS AND GO DRY ON MONDAY AFTER 12Z. THE EURO
ADVERTISES SINGLE DIGIT H85 MB TEMPS PLUNGING DOWN THE WESTERN GRT
LKS LATE MONDAY...+6C INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY LATE MON NIGHT WHICH
WOULD MEAN LOWS IN THE 40S BY NEXT TUE MORNING AND NEAR RECORD LOWS
FOR JUL 15TH. BUT THE ECMWF TENDS TO OVERDO COOLING H85 MB TEMPS IN
DAYS 6-7 AND THE GFS +10 TO +12C MAY BE MORE IN LINE.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

QUIET VFR WEATHER SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD AFTER 09Z WHEN A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. UNTIL THEN...AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE...BUT CHANCES
ARE WELL BELOW THE RANGE NEEDED TO MENTION IN A TAF. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 23 KTS TUESDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IS EXPECTED...AROUND 5000 FT AGL. NO OTHER
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED WITH RESPECT TO FLYING WEATHER.   ERVIN

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

AREA TRIBUTARIES ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HAVE
CRESTED AND ARE CURRENTLY FALLING. THE LOWER SKUNK RIVER AT AUGUSTA
IOWA MAY BE NEAR CREST NOW.

WITH MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING IN BETWEEN THE MAIN STORM SYSTEMS AND
LARGELY MISSED OUT ON HEAVY RAIN EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA...THERE
BE LITTLE LOCAL PRECIP IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER...

THE MISSISSIPPI CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FALL FROM KEOKUK IOWA ON
NORTHWARD.

THE CREST ON THE MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING WAS STARTING TO
SHIFT SOUTH OF THE GREGORY LANDING MISSOURI AREA.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ERVIN
HYDROLOGY...12





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