Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KDVN 110922

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
322 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Issued at 321 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

06Z surface data has an inferred boundary running from southwest
Indiana, to near KEOK, and then west of KMCW. Another inferred
boundary ran from KFSD into northern Kansas. Dew points were in the
teens and 20s from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the central
and northern Plains.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Minor snow accumulations with the incoming system. A bigger concern
will be the windy conditions later today and tonight.

The main concern for the next 24 hours will be the windy conditions
developing this afternoon and evening. Winds will increase to 20 to
30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. The strongest winds look to occur
late this afternoon and evening, or, roughly from 5 PM to midnight.

Based on trends in observational data and the RAP, the initial shot
of precipitation from the approaching system will give a glancing
blow to the area through sunrise. Mainly flurries will be seen but
some light snow is possible across northeast Stephenson county. Any
accumulation there would be a dusting at best.

After sunrise, the forcing associated with the initial round of
precipitation will move east of the area creating a lull in
activity. By mid to late morning and through the afternoon, forcing
will increase again as the low moves through the area.

Precipitation will break out across the area from mid to late
morning and continue through the afternoon. Generally areas north of
highway 30 have the best chance of seeing any precipitation.

Precipitation will take on different forms depending upon how warm
it becomes.

A rain/snow mix that may at times be all snow is expected in the
highway 20 corridor from Dubuque on east. South of the highway 20
corridor, light rain or sprinkles are expected that may mix with
some light snow or flurries during the late afternoon hours.

Accumulations by sunset will be mainly a dusting.

This evening lingering flurries/sprinkles will end east of the the
Mississippi. After midnight, dry conditions are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Continued overall dry to mostly dry pattern in northwest flow with
minor to moderate day to day temperature changes.

Long Term Forecast Confidence Assessment...fair or average with main
issues diurnal trends with most days highs tending too low by 2 to 3
plus degrees and some lows too mild with clear skies and light winds
by 2 to 3 plus degrees.

Tuesday through Thursday...warming trend each day with mostly fair
to fair skies. Low POPS Wednesday night are overdone and suggestive
of flurries in northeast.  Highs 25 to 35, rising to 30s to lower
40s Wednesday and Thursday.  Mins teens rising into mostly the 20s.

Friday through Monday...continued northwest flow with low chances
for light precipitation.  Highs in the 30s and 40s, mins mostly in
the 20s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

A few flurries may skirt KDBQ overnight, but with low probability
will not mention in 06z TAF. The main impacts through the TAF
period will be a switch to a strong NW wind through the day, and
continuing into Monday evening. Gusts will be around 30kts or
higher from late afternoon into the evening hours. Expect mainly
MVFR ceilings with light snow most favored during the afternoon at




LONG TERM...Nichols
AVIATION...RP Kinney is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.