Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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657
FXUS63 KDVN 020829
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
329 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

06Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL OHIO WITH A TROF RUNNING FROM
THE LOW BACK INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 40S FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS
IN THE 50S AND HIGHER RAN FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

THROUGH SUNRISE...ISOLATED SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS THE OVERALL FORCING ALOFT WEAKENS. SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.

FOR MONDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING DUE TO WEAK/NO FORCING. ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
MAY DEVELOP BUT CLEARING WILL BE VERY SLOW.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. FORCING WILL BE WEAK BUT IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE
WEAK BUT REASONABLY PERSISTENT SIGNAL SUGGESTS AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 WOULD
BE FAVORED FOR ANY RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...I CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF I-80.

TONIGHT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WILL DISSIPATE WITH
SUNSET. THUS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

DRY TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DECENT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH LITTLE
OR NO NEAR TERM SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. MAIN CHALLENGE AGAIN IS TOO
MOIST BL DEWPOINTS WHICH SHOULD IMPACT DIURNAL TEMPERATURES. AREAS LOWS
STILL POSSIBLY 3 PLUS DEGREES TOO MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PATCHY
FROST BECOMING A LIKELY ISSUE AT LEAST THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FRIDAY
MORNING.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 50/50 MIX OF HI-
RES ECMWF AND GFS. QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR MAINLY TO DRY CONDITIONS.
SLIGHTLY COLDER LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 50 PLUS PERCENT CHANCE
OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST NORTH OF I-80 THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...FAIR SKIES AND WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20+ MPH AND 850 TEMPS OF
+5 TO +7C AHEAD NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE AND ADIABATIC
COMPRESSION UNDER NEAR FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD FOR ALLOW FOR HIGHS UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE EARLY EVENING NORTH OF I-80. BEST CHANCES ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS COOL FRONT PASSES LATE. LITTLE
CHANGE IN LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MOST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
BE A TRACE TO WELL BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COLDER AND BREEZY WITH INSTABILITY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY PM AS FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST IN ILLINOIS. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY MORNING...LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FROST WITH LIGHT WINDS AOB 5 MPH SUGGEST MINS IN THE 34 TO 38 DEGREES
NORTH OF I-80 WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST IN LOW
LYING LOCATIONS. THE PERCENTAGE CONFIDENCE IS 50+ PERCENT...SO WILL
ADD TO HWO PRODUCT. HIGHS THURSDAY ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... WARMING TREND AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY. HIGHS
TO REACH WELL INTO THE 70S WITH NEAR 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY. LOWS RISING INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH OPEN GULF MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BEST FORCING TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
THAT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS OR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
IN THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS IS A LARGE UPPER LOW SYSTEM AND APPEARS WILL
AFFECT THE MIDWEST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TIMING AND IMPACTS WILL BE BETTER
KNOWN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DRY AIR ON A WEAK LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIFTING CIGS AND INCREASING
VISIBILITIES AT CID...DBQ AND BRL THIS EVENING. MOIST SURFACE
CONDITIONS AND A POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR WILL
CREATE A CHALLENGE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A RETURN OF MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. FOR NOW...THIS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT BRL...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE LOWERING BACK TO
MVFR AT THE OTHER TERMINALS. MONDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VFR AT ALL SITES BY NOON. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MAY TRIGGER
AFTERNOON SHOWERS...WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH VICINITY WORDING
AT ALL BUT BRL...WHERE PROB30S WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...SHEETS



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