Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 192338
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
638 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

...00Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

High pressure located over Michigan this afternoon lead to diurnal
CU and pleasant weather conditions. Highs were reaching the low
70s with dewpoints dropping into the 30s and 40s with light winds.
As this high shifts east through the short term, return SW flow
will bring in high clouds and a schc for rain across the
southernmost CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Main forecast concern for the short term are the chances for
precip as a vort max rotates through the area tomorrow. With
unsaturated low levels, getting rain to the ground may be
difficult. Friday looks to be cloudy and slightly cooler than
today as high clouds take over.

Guidances has come in more wet for Friday from a QPF standpoint.
Perusing the forcing and moisture fields, it is difficult to see
the QPF being forecast come to fruition. The best chance for 0.01
inches of rain looks to be across the far southern CWA. My gut
instinct at this time is that much of the CWA will see sprinkles
if anything from this system. H85 flow doesn`t turn S or SW until
06z tonight and with the dry low levels, its going to be difficult
to get much in terms of precip. With the high clouds in place,
have decreased temps slightly from SuperBlend. Again, as for
today, dewpoints are likely going to be lower than guidance, so
adjusted those downward.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Saturday and Sunday...Spectacular stretch of weather with mid
to upper 70s, light winds, and low humidity.

Monday...Central U.S. ridge begins to break down as upper level
trough drops into the Southwest U.S. and northern closed low
traverses southern Saskatchewan. Downstream of the longwave trough,
mid-level heights will fall and winds will increase out of the
southwest.

At the sfc, breezy southerly winds to advect higher dewpoints
into E Iowa/W Illinois. Consensus dewpoints are in the lower 60s
in the western forecast area by the aftn, slightly lower to the
E/NE. Absence of a front or disturbance aloft would favor a dry
day as indicated by the ECMWF. GFS/GEM have scattered
showers/storms in the west for the aftn where PoPs are between
20-40%. Highs are again forecast in the upper 70s.

Monday Night...Models are in agreement on tracking a weak shortwave
(with only subtle 500mb height falls) and sfc boundary through the
Midwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected with this
system, albeit in a weakening phase. Precip chances have increased
to 50-60%. PWAT values near 1.50 inches increases the potential for
brief moderate or heavy downpours.

Tuesday through Thursday...Dewpoints are forecast to rise above 60 F
which will make it feel much more humid compared to the past few
weeks. Periods of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible, and dry periods are likely. It is too early to
forecast with more detail because thunderstorm chances will be
dependent on mesoscale details. Temps should remain in the mid/upper
70s. Uttech

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Vfr conditions anticipated to persist at the terminals through
the taf cycle, with increasing mid and high level clouds ahead of
an upper level disturbance. This system may squeeze out a few
showers on Friday, mainly south of Interstate 80. Winds will become
light east to southeast tonight and then increase to around 10 to
15 kts late Friday morning through afternoon.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gibbs
SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...McClure



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