Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 011946
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
246 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN IA IS SLOWLY LUMBERING TO THE EAST
TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA. SFC FLOW FROM THE NE LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPS AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
LUMBERING TO THE EAST IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

QUESTION OF HOW MUCH AND WHEN THE RAIN WILL END EARLY IN THE
PERIOD ARE THE FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD. CONSENSUS ON THE
HIRES GUIDANCE IS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPR LVL LOW AND
SUBSEQUENT LONGER DURATION OF RAIN THAN THE SYNOPTIC MODELS WHICH
MOVES THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. TEND TO AGREE
WITH THE CAMS AND AS SUCH HAVE SLOWED ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
LOW AND RAIN LEAVING THE AREA. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST AREA WILL
SEE UP TO 0.3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME AREAS SEEING LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS NEAR 0.5 INCHES.

TOMORROW...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND SOME SUN RETURNS TO THE AREA.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT LATER DURING THE
PERIOD AS AN ELONGATED TROF FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE TO THE EAST AS
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN. A VORT MAX MOVING SOUTH LATER IN
THE DAY MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...12Z SUNDAY MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF
SHOW THAT A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
PRODUCING A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SKIES WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR OUT OF CANADA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
BREEZY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 AND THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH DAYS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...12Z SUNDAY LONG RANGE BLENDED MODELS SHOW THAT
FAIR AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL REX BLOCK
DEVELOPS WITH AN LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY AND
DEEP CLOSED LOWS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE CAROLINAS.
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE CANADIAN
BORDER ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH TO TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO 70 ON FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS GEORGIA. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S. ..KUHL..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

IFR CIGS IMPROVING TO MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A FEW SITES
RETURN TO IFR TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TOMORROW TO MVFR AND
THEN VFR ON MONDAY AFTER 12Z. RA IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
CIGS MAY REDUCE TEMPORARILY TO 4SM OR 3SM. PAST THIS FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE LATER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...GIBBS



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