Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 221751

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1251 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017


Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

A progressive, broad and sharp trough across the central U.S. is
pushing a cold front and associated rain axis through eastern Iowa
into northwest Illinois this morning. Stability is sufficient for
isolated thunder but light to moderate rain predominates. Temps
are unseasonably mild for this time of night, though lower 40s are
currently being observed in northwest Iowa.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Passage of the cold front today will mark a transition to more
seasonal temperatures while also dropping light to moderate rain
across the area. Rain should gradually end with passage of the
850mb front by mid day west of the Mississippi River and by early
evening in northwest Illinois.

Much cooler temperatures are expected overnight with readings
widespread in the 40s, especially if clouds clear overnight as
currently expected.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Colder weather will settle in over the area this week as active
northwest upper flow becomes established over the Central U.s.

A series of short waves dropping southeast out of Western Canada
this week will drag increasingly colder airmasses into the central
U.S.  The first wave will move through the region Monday/Monday
night.  Moisture ahead of the wave will be limited with this wave,
but forcing may be strong enough to squeeze out some light rain over
the north Monday afternoon and Monday night.  Temperatures Monday
and Monday night should be close to late October normals with highs
in the low to mid 60s and lows in the low to mid 40s.  Tuesday will
be the regions first real taste of fall weather with temperatures
struggling to climb to around 50 and brisk northwest winds. Near
normal temperatures will return for mid week ahead of a more
significant short wave progged the move through the Central u.s. by
the end of the week.  This late week system will have much colder
air associated with it sending lows into the 30s and highs in the
40s.  There is some disagreement among the operational models with
respect to the placement of the strongest forcing.  The GFS favors a
wetter solution for our region taking a more southern track while
the ECMWF moves the better forcing through the north Central U.S.
Either solution though has low level temperatures cold enough to
support the mention of a rain/snow mix for Friday night and Saturday


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

VFR conditions to prevail through the next 24 hrs. Low clouds
around 4000 ft AGL at KMLI/KBRL will improve through the early
afternoon. Also expect wind speeds to decrease through the mid to
late afternoon. Did not include fog in TAFs at this time. However,
later shifts may need to reassess potential for late tonight into
early Monday morning. Uttech




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