Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 080443
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1143 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

I HAVE FURTHER REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE TIME OF
THE FROPA. THUS...THIS EVENT SHOULD CONCLUDE WITH ONLY THE
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES IMPACTED BY STORMS TONIGHT. QPF IS NIL
OUTSIDE OF THE FAR SOUTH WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES FELL IN EXTREME
SOUTHERN PARTS OF SCOTLAND AND CLARK COUNTIES.
ERVIN

UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS FOUND NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA
BORDER...MOVING EAST...AND IN SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THIS LEAVES THE DVN CWA MORE OR LESS
SPLIT BY THESE TWO CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. WHILE SOME ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL APPEAR LIKELY IN THE SOUTH 1/3
TONIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA NOW APPEARS TO ONLY DEAL WITH
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.
THIS ACTIVITY STILL IS SET TO ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING IN THE
NORTHWEST...AND EXITING THE EAST QUICKLY BY 3 TO 4 AM. I HAVE
LOWERED QPF IN ALL LOCATIONS...BUT REMAIN IN THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH
RANGE IN THE FAR SOUTH. LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH WILL SEE SPOTTY
AMOUNTS OF 0.25 OR SO...WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS MUCH LESS DUE TO
DECREASED COVERAGE OF RAINS.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

THE 2 PM ANALYSIS INDICATES MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG AND SOUTH OF IA/MO
BORDER WITH PRESSURE FALL PATTERNS AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORTIVE A
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO FIRE NEAR SUNSET NEAR MCI-STJ-TOP. THIS
WOULD LIMIT ANY HEAVY RAINS TO OUR FAR SOUTH 1/3 TO 1/4 AND POSSIBLY
JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA DUE TO STRONG DUE EAST FLOW PATTERN. AIR BEHIND
COOL FRONT DIVING SE IN NORTHERN PLAINS IS ONCE AGAIN...COLDER THAN
MOST SOLUTIONS AND STRONGER WITH WINDS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND DRIER FOR THE AREA INTO LATE THIS WEEK AND
DRY TO MOSTLY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

TONIGHT...FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34
CORRIDOR WITH RAIN AMOUNTS OF .5 TO 1.5 INCHES...HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY
IN MISSOURI. NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34...LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BELOW A QUARTER INCH...POSSIBLE A FEW TRACE AMOUNTS.
BEST TIMING OF FORCING SHOULD BE LATE EVENING INTO MID OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOWS...MID 60S NW TO NEAR 70 DEGREES FAR SE WITH FAIR SKIES ALL
BUT FAR SE SECTIONS BY SUNRISE.

TUESDAY...BREEZY...FAIR AND COMFORTABLY WARM...STRONGER COOL FRONT SUPPORTS
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH ISOLATED HIGH GUSTS IN PM HOURS. HIGHS UPPER
70S WITH LOWER 80S SOUTH. DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS
BY AFTERNOON FOR A COMFORTABLE...DESPITE THE BREEZE...MID JULY DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE TURNING
ACTIVE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL BE DRY
PERIODS OF POTENTIALLY 6 HOURS OR MORE IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY TIME FRAME.

THE MODELS ARE INDICATING ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES MAY
AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST IN THE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS SUCH
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

QUIET VFR WEATHER SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD AFTER 09Z WHEN A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. UNTIL THEN...AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE...BUT CHANCES
ARE WELL BELOW THE RANGE NEEDED TO MENTION IN A TAF. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 23 KTS TUESDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IS EXPECTED...AROUND 5000 FT AGL. NO OTHER
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED WITH RESPECT TO FLYING WEATHER.
ERVIN

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

AREA TRIBUTARIES ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HAVE
CRESTED AND ARE CURRENTLY FALLING. THE LOWER SKUNK RIVER IS STILL
RISING TO A CREST AT AUGUSTA IOWA.

THE RAINFALL TONIGHT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA
RIVERS.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER...

THE MISSISSIPPI CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FALL NORTH OF KEOKUK IOWA.

THE CREST ON THE MISSISSIPPI AS OF MID DAY WAS IN THE GREGORY
LANDING MISSOURI AREA.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN
HYDROLOGY...08






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