Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 220944
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
344 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TODAY...WITH PAVEMENT SENSORS ABOVE FREEZING AND A FEW GROUND
REPORTS...HAVE CHOPPED AWAY AT THE REMAINING FREEZING RAIN HEADLINE
FROM THE SOUTH FOR NOW. SEEMS WITH PASSING VORT NOW OVER EASTERN
IA...ORGANIZED SHOWERS/AREAS OF RAIN ARE MAKING HEADWAY TO THE EAST
OUT OF THE DVN CWA BUT WILL KEEP ADVISORY ACRS THE NORTH FOR
LINGERING PATCHES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND ESPECIALLY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. ANOTHER VORT LOBE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACRS NEB WILL
MAKE IT TOWARD THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND MAY PRODUCE SOME MORE
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING THROUGH NOON...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ENOUGH TOP-DOWN DRYING TO AROUND H85 MB OR LESS THAT ANY
PRECIP MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG WORDING IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH MIXING SOUTH WINDS AND DIURNAL EFFECTS SHOULD
PREVENT DENSE FOG. THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BOUT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PRESSING THROUGH..THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
PRECIP WITH CONTINUED SHALLOW LAYER OF SATURATION. WILL TREND TO
SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED COLD GROUND WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 40S IN THE
NORTH...TO 50 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 THIS AFTERNOON.
IF IT WERE NOT FOR THESE FACTORS...THE AIR MASS BEING ADVECTED UP
ACRS THE REGION IN BRISK 35-45 KT LLVL SOUTHWESTERLIES WOULD SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE 60S IN SOME AREAS.

TONIGHT...AS THE UPSTREAM L/W TROF ORGANIZES TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND LLVL CYCLOGENESIS BLOSSOMS ACRS THE PLAINS...ENHANCED
WARM MOIST CONVEYOR WILL STILL LOOK TO STREAM UP THE MS RVR VALLEY.
THE SATURATED LAYER WILL LOOK TO DEEPEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...AGAIN
THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED RAIN/SHOWERS AND JUST
SOME DRIZZLE...BUT WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS FOR SOME ACTIVITY
ALONG AN APPROACHING CONVERGENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WING ALOFT. THE
FIRST SURGE OF DEEPER LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH ARCHING
SOUTHWESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE TROF SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME
RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I80...AGAIN MAY BE JUST DRIZZLE AND SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO
THE NORTH OF I80 THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AS FOR ADVECTION FOG...WITH
MIXING SOUTH WINDS OF 10-15+ MPH OVERNIGHT AND SOME TEMP MODERATION
OF THE SFC LAYER...WILL GO WITH AREAS OF FOG AS OPPOSED TO
WIDESPREAD DENSE POTENTIAL. WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SOME AREAS HOWEVER AND CANNOT RULE OUT A NEED FOR
AN ADVISORY BEFORE THE RAIN BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. LOW TEMPS NOT
THAT FAR OFF WHAT OCCURS DURING LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
WITH WARMING SOUTH BREEZED MAINTAINING OVERNIGHT.     ..12..


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SEVERAL IMPACTFUL WEATHER EVENTS ARE THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.

ON SUNDAY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL ON
TRACK...WITH LATEST SYNOPTIC MODELS LENDING INCREASED CONFIDENCE
REGARDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT. ENSEMBLE TO CLIMATE
COMPARISONS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS STORM SYSTEM AS UNSEASONABLY
POTENT...IN PARTICULAR THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE AND THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF AN INCH OR HIGHER ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WHICH IS 200-250 PERCENT OF NORMAL. CONSENSUS QPF SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO 1.5 INCHES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES AND INCREASING TO THE EAST. WITH THE FROZEN
GROUND...SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IS EXPECTED. WITH THE CURRENT LOW STAGES
ON AREA TRIBS...ANY RISES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN-BANK.
HOWEVER...LOCALIZED PONDING AND RAIN-FILLED DITCHES MAY BE AN ISSUE.

COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO PLUNGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY NORTHWEST FROM INDEPENDENCE TO MONTICELLO AND
DUBUQUE.

LINGERING MOISTURE TRAILING THE EXITING SURFACE LOW WILL FUEL
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH A WESTERLY WIND GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH...PERHAPS
HIGHER...BLOWING SNOW MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. EVEN THOUGH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE SUB-ADVISORY...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY.

EXPECT CHILLY TEMPS IN THE 35-35 DEGREE RANGE TUESDAY...AHEAD OF THE
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. THE 22/00Z
SYNOPTIC MODELS FAVOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR A QUICK SHOT
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND WIND. THE ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST SURFACE
LOW...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM GENERATE TRAILING IMPULSES THAT PUSH THE
SNOW THREAT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN THANKSGIVING DAY. HAVE
KEPT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST
DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE
WITH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT WARM...MOIST ADVECTION.
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING SUPPORT RISK OF VERY LIGHT ICING AT KCID AND
KDBQ BEFORE SFC/GROUND TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z. MID
LEVEL DRYING AND MOISTENING LOW LEVELS COUPLED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER STILL COLD
GROUND MAY FOSTER DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH LIFR TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO... ADDED MENTION OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASE IN WINDS TO 40-45 KTS FROM S/SW AROUND
2000FT AGL.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-
     JONES-LINN.

IL...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CARROLL-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...05





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