Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 262310
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
610 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

AS OF 3 PM CDT...GOES EAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWED WESTERN
FRINGE OF LARGE STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTION
OF THE DVN CWA. ELSEWHERE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR. ALTHOUGH...OF
NOTE WAS A EXPANSIVE AREA OF MID-LEVEL WILDFIRE SMOKE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND PLAINS. THE SMOKE WAS FIRST PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE DVN FORECAST AREA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. TEMPS
WERE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BY LATE AUGUST STANDARDS...GENERALLY
IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

TONIGHT...SFC-850MB RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. COOL LOWS ARE FORECAST WITH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 50S ON AVG. THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED FOG IN
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE EVAPORATING QUICKLY.

THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...REACHING THE
UPPER 70S ON AVG. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO SFC LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING
OVER NEBRASKA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL WAVE INTERACTING WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE WEST
OF THE ROCKIES WILL ROLL THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
BEYOND...THE BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE AND DEVELOPING MORE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY WED.

WHILE 12Z MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE RIDING EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS IA AND MN FRI INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN
THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND PLACEMENT LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE
MORE CONSISTENT GFS AND NAM...PLACING THE SURFACE LOW IN FAR NE NEB
FRI MORNING...TRACKING EAST ACROSS IA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF
HAS VEERED OFF TO A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THE PAST COUPLE RUNS...
ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO LOWER MI BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OTHER OTHER MODELS HAVE THE FEATURE STEERING E-
SE AND WEAKENING SATURDAY...WHICH LOOKS MORE REALISTIC GIVEN THE
ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS ISOLATED TO THE FAR NW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHERE IT MAY END UP BEING CLOSER TO SUNRISE WHEN
POTENTIAL SHOWERS MOVE IN. ELSEWHERE...DEVELOPING LIGHT SE WINDS AT
THE SURFACE WILL KEEP A FEED OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS FEEDING INTO THE AREA TO ALLOW ANOTHER NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE
UPPER 50S NORTHEAST...WITH LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
SPREADS EAST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE DURING THE
DAY...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD INITIALLY FOCUS
RAIN AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
IA INTO SOUTHERN MN IN THE MORNING CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. HAVE
CONFINED LIKELY POPS TO THE NW WITH CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCES
ELSEWHERE. THE FAR EAST WILL NOT LIKELY SEE RAIN UNTIL EVENING. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FAR SW...CLOSER TO
HIGHER MUCAPES WELL TO THE SW AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WITH PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH
THE MID AND UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND SE...WHILE THE FAR N AND NE MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A WEAKENING
FASHION...SUPPORTING HIGHEST POPS NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MENTIONED...THE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW DUE TO THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY. EVENT TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO BE IN A GENERAL
QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE NORTH TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS SOUTH...WITH
THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK-LOOKING 1 PLUS INCH BULLSEYES IN THE MODELS
MOSTLY FOCUSED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES GOING OVER ESPECIALLY THE EAST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHILE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE ENTERS THE NW. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TEMPERATURES RISING TO
AT LEAST THE 80S AND POSSIBLY THE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RETURNING
TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE 60S. A DEVELOPING BLOCKING
PATTERN AND EFFECTS OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL REMNANTS OVER THE SE
SUPPORTS A DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL BECOME S/SE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY



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