Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 171744

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1244 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016


Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

At 2 AM CDT, the region is under near record October warmth with temperatures
still in the upper 60s to lower 70s with south winds of 10 MPH with
isolated gusts to 20 MPH. A short wave will pass by to the north resulting
in near record high temperatures today and breezy to windy south to
southwest winds. A dry cool front will bring temperatures closer to
normal Tuesday with dry conditions lasting into late this week.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Short term forecast confidence assessment...good or above average
with little sensible weather issues. High breezy to windy
conditions get mid day to late afternoon one issue. Local tools
suggest 15 to 25 MPH northwest 1/3 to 20 to 30+ MPH southeast 1/2
to 2/3. Temperatures should be within 3 degrees across the region
for highs and lows.

Today...mostly sunny to partly cloudy with breezy to locally windy south
to southwest winds of 15 to 30+ MPH. Highs should be near records and
may possibly tie or break some long standing records listed in the Climate
section. Generally highs should make the upper 80s south to around
80 degrees in the far north.

Tonight...a dry cool front will pass with southwest winds decreasing
and switching to the west at 5 to 10 MPH by around or after
midnight. Lows will be a bit of a challenge with a decent
gradient, the middle 50s in the northwest to the middle 60s in the

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Turning much cooler late this week.

Dry conditions will be seen across the area Tuesday and Tuesday
night as high pressure moves through the Midwest. Temperatures
should average around 5 degrees above normal. Attention then turns
to the next storm system.

The models differ on where the next storm system will track for
Wednesday and Wednesday night. The CMC global and WRF models keep
the storm system well to the south and have dry conditions. The GFS
is further north and catches roughly the southeast half of the area.
The ECMWF is much further north and brings precipitation to much of
the area. As a result, the model consensus has slight chance to low
chance pops for the southeast half of the area Wednesday with mainly
dry conditions Wednesday night.

Thursday on...

Much cooler conditions will be seen across the area on Thursday and
Friday with temperatures averaging below normal. Although moisture
is limited, a passing upper level disturbance may generate some
showers on Thursday. As such the model consensus has slight chance
pops for Thursday. Thursday night/Friday look to be dry as high
pressure builds into the Midwest.

The model consensus has dry conditions for the area from Friday
night through Sunday. The main storm tracks are well north and south
of the area. Temperatures should be close to normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Band of mainly MVFR stratocu deck clouds should lift to VFR levels
or scatter out at CID by mid afternoon, but may hang in at DBQ
through evening. Sctrd to BKN MVFR clouds along and south of I80
this afternoon going mainly clear overnight. Gusty south to
southwest sfc winds of 15 to 25 KTs with higher gusts into the
evening, then a cool front acrs the plains will sweep in from the
west later tonight and veer the winds to the west by midnight
through 3 AM CDT, and to the northwest by mid Tue morning. Wind
speed overnight generally 10-15 KTs sustained. Some indication
cloud ceilings may lower back to MVFR along and post-frontally
later tonight especially along and north of I80.   ..12..


ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Record Highs for October 17...

Moline.........86 in 1950
Cedar Rapids...86 in 1950
Dubuque........86 in 1950
Burlington.....87 in 1950




SHORT TERM...Nichols
CLIMATE...Nichols is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.