Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 031126
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
626 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AT 2 AM
CDT. UPSTREAM DIGGING SHORT WAVE IN MANITOBA TO CLIP THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS THIS EVENING
THEN COOLER AND DRY INTO THURSDAY..

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH
MAIN ISSUE STRENGTH OF FORCING WITH SHORT WAVE. ANALYSIS AT 2 AM
SUGGEST FORCING IS THERE BUT SURFACE BL MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE BY MOST SOLUTIONS. THIS WILL TAKE ANOTHER 6 TO 8 HOURS TO
BETTER CLARIFY.

TODAY...SUNNY AND A BIT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF I-80 WITH
AFTERNOON WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO OCCASIONALLY NEAR 25 MPH AND 10
TO 15 MPH SOUTH OF I-80 CORRIDOR. HIGHS WITH DEEP MIXING SHOULD
MAKE WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S WITH SOME FAVORED LOCATIONS LIKELY
REACHING 70 DEGREES AND MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO MORE. OVERALL A NICE
EARLY MAY DAY FOR OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE EVENING WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW BRIEF RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO SLIDE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION MOSTLY BETWEEN 7 PM AND 2 AM. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S
AND FAST PROGRESSION SUPPORTS AMOUNTS THAT ARE LIGHT OF LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH AND SOME SPOTS RECEIVING TRACE AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY IN THE 40S WITH CLEARING LATE AND COLDER AIR ARRIVING OVERNIGHT
SUPPORTS LOWS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 POSSIBLY STILL A FEW DEGREES TOO MILD
FOR LATER SHIFTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A MAINLY DRY REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING
ACTIVE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORCING IS WEAK BUT DAY TIME HEATING MIGHT
ALLOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN
AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. GIVE THE LIGHT
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...FROST LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO JUST AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. IF FROST OCCURS... THE AREA THAT LOOKS
TO BE AT RISK IS GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF AN INDEPENDENCE IA TO KEWANEE
IL LINE.

THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER DRY AND COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

FRIDAY ON...

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THERE ARE QUESTIONS
REGARDING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS.

STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN. THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS REGARDING THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF OVERALL FEATURES. HOWEVER...THERE IS LOOSE AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS THAT ONE OR MORE STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE AFFECTING THE
MIDWEST.

RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THIS WILL NOT BE A CONTINUOUS RAIN EVENT.
THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER FROM SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAIR SKIES WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH 04/00Z. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING THE RISK OF MID LEVEL CLOUD BASE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
STORM BETWEEN 04/01Z AND 04/07Z WHICH IS HANDLED AS A PROB30 GROUP.
SKIES WILL CLEAR AFTER 04/07Z WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS


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