Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 041754
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1254 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

AT 2 AM CDT...SKIES ARE CLEARING WITH THE LAST OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NOW SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
ISOLABAIC MAXTO ARRIVE MID MORNING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR AND STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLY WINDS. SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE NEXT
3 DAYS BRINGING FAIR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TREND STARTING
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
MAIN ISSUE TEMPERATURES AND STRENGTH OF MID DAY WIND GUSTS. THE BL DEWPOINTS
AND DECOUPLING LATE TONIGHT A KEY PLAYER ON RISK OF FROST FORMATION.

TODAY...MOSTLY FAIR SKIES WITH SUNNY SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY MID TO LATE DAY WITH FEW-SCT AND BRIEF INTERVALS OF BKN COVERAGE
OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS. HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MID DAY IN BUREAU AND PUTNAM COUNTIES DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN THERE. THIS IS VERY QUESTIONABLE AND MAY BE ABLE TO BE
REMOVED IF TYPICAL CONVERGENCE STAYS TO OUR EAST AS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
IS USUALLY THE CASE. NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SUPERDIABATIC MIXING TO ABOVE
750 MB SUPPORTS GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH FOR
A BREEZY AND COOL DAY. HIGHS WITH DEEP MIXING AND SUNSHINE MAY BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE WITH A 58 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE SUGGESTED FROM NE TO
SW. THIS WOULD BE 5 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING NORTH WINDS TO AT OR BELOW 5 MPH
BY SUNRISE. IF BL DECOUPLING DOES OCCUR AS IS SUGGESTED AFTER 3 TO
4 AM THEN LOW LYING AREAS WILL SEE LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW FORECAST
MINS WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST LIKELY. COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE FOR
A FROST ADVISORY IS JUST BELOW 50 PERCENT AND WILL PASS AS MAIN ISSUE
FOR DAY SHIFT. WILL NOT PUT PATCHY FROST IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME NORTH
OF I-80 AND PASS FOR DAY SHIFT TO REASSESS. LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORTS AREA
MINS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 35 DEGREES IN FAVORED LOW LYING LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-80 TO AROUND 42 TO 43 DEGREES AROUND KEOKUK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

DRY TO FINISH OUT THE WORK WEEK THEN THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES
MORE ACTIVE.

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY BUT
THEN TURN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AND THE OVERALL FORCING IS WEAK AND MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THUS DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY ON...

STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY THE WEATHER PATTERN
TURNS ACTIVE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE MODELS IN
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF OVERALL FEATURES. WHAT THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE UPON IS THAT ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE EJECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY COME OUT IN PIECES WHICH WILL HELP PROLONG THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN IN THE MIDWEST.

ON SATURDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS FOR A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT.
SOME MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WHILE OTHER
HAVE MORE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA. SOME OF THE MODELS MOVE THE
FRONT OUT OF THE AREA QUICKER THAN OTHERS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE FIRST PIECE OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY DELAY
THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE DRY AIR. AS SUCH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SUNDAY...AND
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PLAINS.
THE SECOND PIECE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
MIDWEST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MORE CELLULAR CU...SOME AT BKN COVERAGE BUT AT VFR LEVELS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MS RVR THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW CHC FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IN THESE CU FIELDS WHICH MAY GET INTO THE EASTERN VCNTY OF
DBQ/MLI/BRL. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS BY MID EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR. EXPECT ENOUGH
OF A NORTH BREEZE OF AT LEAST 4-6 KTS INTO EARLY THU MORNING TO
LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH ONGOING DIURNAL DRYING
TODAY LOWERING SFC DPTS. VFR CONDITIONS ON THU WITH NORTH-
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 8-13 KTS.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...12



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