Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 290809

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
309 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Upper level trough axis extended from WI to KS and was producing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. In the dvn cwa low
stratus had spread into the northern half with temperatures in the
60s to around 70.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Today: Upper level trough and pocket of cooler air aloft will
slide into the cwa. There should be enough breaks in the cloud
cover to allow for just enough instability to trigger scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms. Pops will be kept at 30-40
percent, with the higher pops in the north and east where the
better forcing will exist. With MLCAPES maximized at 1000 J/KG
and deep layer shear very weak we are looking at garden variety
thunderstorms. Steering winds are rather light so the showers and
storms will be slow moving. Of course any storm can produce gusty
winds, lightning and heavy downpours. Afternoon highs will be in
the mid 70s to around 80.

Tonight: Slow moving upper level trough will still be over the
area but with the loss of heating any showers or storms will
gradually diminish. Lows should be in the lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Saturday, a vort max and moisture convergence along a weak surface
trough will likely support some scattered thunderstorms, especially
across the northeast half of the forecast area. No severe weather is
anticipated. Northeast surface winds will keep temps at bay, with
afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

For Sunday, the upper ridge will begin to build to the west of the
forecast area with afternoon highs back close to seasonal normals.
Synoptic models continue to suggest a warm front nosing into the
southwest with scattered storms possible Sunday night. Again, the
severe weather threat is low.

Looking ahead to next week, the main theme is the return of more hot
and humid weather, with periodic chances for thunderstorms. At least
scattered storms cannot be ruled out of any period at this point,
but there is plenty of model variability in the track and timing of
various short wave troughs and the strength of the cap. Monday night
into Tuesday may be favored for an organized thunderstorm complex.
Afternoon heat index values will flirt with the 100 degree mark at
times, largely dependent on cloud trends.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Precipitation chances and ceilings the main challenges with the
taf cycle. Weak low pressure will remain near the area through
Friday evening and keep the threat for at least isolated to
scattered showers and a few storms, as spokes of energy rotate
around the low. Very difficult to determine any favored location
and timing, thus have continued to leave out any precipitation
mention with 06z and will just need to amend if/when radar and
short term trends necessitate. Otherwise, low clouds with mvfr
to ifr ceilings at CID and DBQ anticipated to build southward into
MLI as well overnight and linger through Friday morning. BRL is
lower confidence being south of the low but most guidance is
supportive of lower clouds and with radiational cooling and better
low level moisture I have gone with period of ifr to mvfr
conditions there as well. Some gusts in northerly winds Friday
afternoon will enhance influx of drier air and should allow any
ceilings to lift to vfr.


.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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