Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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366
FXUS63 KDVN 030434
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1134 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A LINGERING TROF ACRS THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA CONNECTED TO EASTERN OH RIVER VALLEY WAVE/FRONT
SYSTEM. BROAD SFC RIDGING NOTED FROM THE MO RV VALLEY INTO THE
WESTERN GRT LKS. LOOKING AT THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP...WHILE
THE MAIN UPPER WAVE/VORT MAX WAS SEEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
DIGGING SOUTH TOWARD NEB/KS BY MID EVENING...ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE
WAS NOTED OVER THE MN/WI/NORTHEASTERN IA TRI-STATE REGION RIPPLING
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS UPPER WAVE ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
ESPECIALLY IN THE CLOUD BREAKS WAS SUPPOSED TO FUEL ISOLATED POP
UP SHOWERS...BUT FEW HAVE DEVELOPED TO THIS POINT. WILL STILL KEEP
ISOLATED POPS ACRS THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ON
SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER VORT LOBE THROUGH 00Z IN CASE OF A
LATER AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS MORE
SOLIDLY MET/REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

TONIGHT...A FEW OF THE HIRES SOLUTIONS KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS
FESTERING THOUGH 02Z ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SOUTHWEST IF THEY DO INDEED
DEVELOP...BUT WILL GO GENERALLY DRY FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER WAVE
WILL LINGER OVERHEAD AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST-SOUTHEAST...LOSS OF
DIURNAL PROCESSES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CELLULAR CU DECAY AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE LOBE WILL ALSO SLIDE DOWN
ACRS THE AREA HELPING MAKE FOR A CLEAR OUT. LIKE MENTIONED IN THE
AVIATION DISCUSSION...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND INHERENT LIGHT/VARIABLE
SFC WIND REGIME UNDER THE RIDGE LATER TONIGHT THERE IS SOME FOG
CONCERNS IN AREAS WITH A SATURATED SFC LAYER FROM THE WEEKEND RAINS.
BUT NO MODEL IS REALLY FCSTING FOG...AND DRY LLVL MIXING TODAY INTO
THE EVENING REDUCING SFC DPTS. THUS ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE MORE
CONFINED TO RIVER VALLEYS AND A LOCALIZED LOW-LYING GROUND FOG TYPE
PHENOMENA....SO WILL NOT MENTION IT IN THE FCST GRIDS FOR NOW BUT
LATER SHIFTS WILL STILL HAVE TO BE ON A FOG WATCH. WITH LOWERED SFC
DPTS/CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTH HALF. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME TEMPS DIP TOWARD THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
LLVL COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS NORTH OF HWY 30.

TUESDAY...INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW...MORE SUNSHINE THAN
TODAY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE NEXT DIGGING
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR A DECENT WARM UP BY TUE
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE COOL START TO THE DAY. WILL GO WITH WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 60S WITH EVEN A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE UNTIL
CLOUDS THICKEN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. ALSO WILL KEEP THE
NORTH DRY THROUGH 00Z WITH INCOMING PRECIP OCCURRING AFTER THAT TIME
MARKER.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING THEN A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
WITH MORE RAIN LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TUESDAY EVENING...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE/COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL DIVE INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG
FORCING FOR SEVERAL HOURS SO HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ROUGHLY OVER
OUR NORTHEAST 1/3RD. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO MINIMAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...A NICE COLD POCKET ALOFT WILL
PUSH INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WHICH MAY
SUPPORT SMALL HAIL IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. AFTER MIDNIGHT
THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH GREATLY AS THE WAVE
PUSHES RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY A DRY PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FROST
IN OUR FAR NORTH BUT MODELS INDICATE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND AND
AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS TO PREVENT A MORE WIDESPREAD FROST. HOWEVER...
WE WILL MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS FOR ANY CHANGES TO THIS THINKING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NICE WARM-UP AS WE GET INTO A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF A MAJOR TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE ROCKIES. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS IN ALREADY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER...NOT UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...A WARM BUT WETTER PERIOD WITH A
DEEP TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. GULF MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE MIDWEST WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
HOWEVER...TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS AND ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

A WEAK FLOW AND BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...KEEPING CONDITIONS
PREDOMINANTLY VFR. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG
AT BRL...WHICH HAS ONLY BEEN MENTIONED WITH A 5SM TO 6SM
VISIBILITY REDUCTION. TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY FROM THE WEST AT ALL SITES IN THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. IN THIS OUTER
FORECAST PERIOD...HAVE INITIALLY GONE WITH PROB30 WORDING FOR
SHOWERS...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE HIT HARDER AND POSSIBLY INCLUDE A
MENTION OF THUNDER IN FORECASTS CLOSER TO THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS



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