Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 220809
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
309 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE IA/NEB BORDER PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
3 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE DVN CWA RANGED FROM 43 TO 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
ARRIVES AT 929 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

CONTINUED TRANQUIL EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH MINOR WARMING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD AS
AGAIN NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND NO
COHERENT WEATHER SYSTEMS.  LOCAL AREA HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES DAYS 2-7
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY WITHIN 2-3 DEGREES OF FORECAST.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH MINOR BL RH
AND DEWPOINT ISSUES WITH A DRY FORECAST. QUIET PATTERN WITH STAGNANT
RIDGING WITH A 50/50 MIX OF GFS/HI-RES ECMWF REASONABLE. TRENDS AND
PERSISTENCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST HIGHS...A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER SOME
LOCATIONS AND AREA LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING MANY FAVORED LOW LYING LOCATIONS LIKE WAPSI/ROCK
RIVER VALLEYS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...QUIET EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH FAIR SKIES.
VERY MINOR CHANGES OF A DEGREE OR SO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LIGHT
WINDS FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST. HIGHS 70-75 THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN 75-80 THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  AS EXPECTED...
REMOVED LOW POPS OF DECAYING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY
DUE TO DRY MOISTURE LEVELS AND UPPER HIGH PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DRYING OF AREA CROPS AS FALL HARVEST
GETS GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TAF
CYCLE PROVIDING IDEAL FLYING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...
LIGHT WINDS AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...HAASE






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