Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 061802
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
102 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TODAY LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. DPS ARE FCST TO
INCREASE INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY AFTN.  COMBINE THOSE WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 WILL PRODUCE A UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH
AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE BY AFTERNOON WITH ANY CAP HAVING ERODED BY
LATE MORNING.  A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER CONVECTION
ACROSS THE OZARKS BETWEEN 16Z-18Z. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DRIFT
NORTH WHILE SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE THRU THE AFTN. WHILE THE
OVERALL COVERAGE ISN`T EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT GREAT, PWATS OF 1.5"
TO 2" MEANS THAT ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING.  ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW.

MILLER

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR A
LARGE SECTION OF THE CWA IN COLLABORATION WITH KANSAS CITY AND
SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI OFFICES. THE SCENARIO THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED
THE LAST FEW DAYS REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...NEARLY ALL
GUIDANCE NOW DEPICTS A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING AND TRAVERSING THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FINALLY...WITH PW VALUES FORECAST
TO BE IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES IT WOULD SEEM THAT ALL THE INGREDIENTS
ARE IN PLACE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR. GENERALLY BELIEVE
WIDESPREAD TWO DAY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN
THE WATCH AREA...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES. AFTER A
TYPICALLY WARM AND HUMID DAY TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY LIFTING
NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL SUMMER VALUES
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S NEXT WEEKEND.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN VIH AND STL
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING AND WILL IMPACT THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA AND POSSIBLY ALSO
COU AS WELL. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER
WESTERN WI SOUTHWEST INTO THE OK PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH UIN AROUND 00Z TUESDAY, COU AROUND 06Z TUESDAY, AND THE ST
LOUIS METRO AREA BETWEEN 09-12Z TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE WIND WILL ALSO
VEER AROUND TO A NWLY DIRECTON AFTER FROPA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE CLOUD CEILING WILL LOWER TO AROUND 1000 FEET
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO POST FRONTAL STRATUS
CLOUDS.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT STL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN THREAT LATER THIS EVENING,
THEN A WEAKENING LINE OR BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO STL LATE TONIGHT ALONG A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH STL JUST BEFORE 12Z TUESDAY. THE WIND WILL
VEER AROUND TO A NWLY DIRECTION AFTER FROPA WITH THE CLOUD
CEILING DROPPING TO AROUND 1000 FEET.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     90  73  77  63 /  40  60  80  80
QUINCY          87  65  73  59 /  40  90  60  50
COLUMBIA        88  67  72  64 /  50  90  70  80
JEFFERSON CITY  89  70  73  65 /  50  80  80  80
SALEM           89  73  79  63 /  20  40  80  60
FARMINGTON      87  73  79  66 /  40  40  80  80

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-
     CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-
     LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-
     MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-WARREN MO-
     WASHINGTON MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY
     IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MONROE IL-PIKE IL-ST. CLAIR IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



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