Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 261815

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
115 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

TSRA ongoing ahead of approaching cdfnt continue to move ewd this
morning. These shud continue ewd after sunrise and gradually weaken
thru the morning as low level forcing weakens. With a relative lull
in activity expected thru early afternoon, expect TSRA to become
more widespread, mainly across nern portions of the CWA as low level
forcing increases again. There may also be some redevelopment of
SHRA along the actual cdfnt as it pushes swd, but do not expect much
coverage and precip shud be light.

Precip shud move out of the area this evening as the fnt continues
to move swd thru the area. Expect any precip to dissipate/move out
of the area by Midnight tonight.

As for temps, trended twd the warmer guidance today. Current temps,
even within areas of rain, are still in the mid to upper 60s. With
the precip breaking up today, expect temps to warm into the 70s, at
least across the srn half of the CWA. Trended twd the warmer
guidance tonight across about the srn half of the CWA, while
trending cooler across the north.


.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Surface ridge to build into the region on Thursday with temperatures
closer to normal, in the 60s, and skies clearing out by afternoon.

Surface ridging doesn`t last long though and begins to shift to the
southeast Thursday night. This will allow warm southerly winds to
return for the first half the weekend. Highs on Friday will be 10 to
15 degrees above normal, in the low 70s to low 80s.

Models are a bit slower with next frontal boundary now, with it not
moving into northern portions of forecast area til Saturday
afternoon due to flattening of upper level ridge. So highs will be
well above normal once again, in the mid 70s to low 80s. With little
in the way of moisture with this front, it will be a dry frontal

Front will take its time moving through forecast area, eventually
stalling out over southern Missouri by Sunday night. Then boundary
washes out, allowing weak surface ridging to build in, as well as,
breezy south to southwest winds, so will have above normal
temperatures for the trick or treaters Monday evening, after daytime
highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Some timing issues among the extended models beyond Monday as next
system approaches region late Monday night. Some indication of front
stalling out over region and lifting back north as a warm front on
Tuesday. Kept mention of showers and storms for portions of forecast
area Tuesday afternoon.



.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Narrow band of showers and embedded thunderstorms ahead of an
upper level disturbance will move east of KSTL metro TAF sites by
around 19Z. Some light rain showers will continue to be possible
through around 06Z as a cold front approaches the area. Winds will
become northwest behind the front. MVFR ceilings will move into
KUIN and KCOUC by around 20Z and to KSTL metro sites by 01Z. Very
large area of post frontal low end MVFR and IFR ceilings over
Iowa will continue to surge southward overnight. Have included
tempo groups at KUIN and KSTL area TAF sites to account for the
possibility of IFR ceilings overnight. MVFR ceilings will
gradually clear out from west to east on Thursday afternoon.






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