Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 220458

1158 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Issued at 842 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Band of showers along the cold front will continue to weaken as
they move southeast through 06Z.



.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Cold front has moved into Missouri and will continue to track to the
southeast this evening. Showers and some thunderstorms have
developed ahead of cold front, but they will remain scattered in
nature before coming to an end late this evening. As for
temperatures, not a lot of caa behind this front so will have lows
in the mid 40s to mid 50s.


.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Skies to clear out by daybreak on Tuesday with north winds
persisting throughout the day. So a bit chillier but highs will be
in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Then surface ridge to move off to the east by Wednesday allowing
southerly winds to return ahead of next weather system. Highs on
Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Showers and thunderstorms to develop along frontal boundary late
Wednesday night and spread east. Best chances of precipitation will
be during the day on Thursday. Front to move through during the
afternoon and evening hours with decent instability, i.e.
surface based capes between 500 and 1000 j/kg and deep layer shear
in excess of 40kts.  However, unsure yet what the severe potential
will be. As for highs on Thursday, they will be in the upper 60s to
low 70s.

Beyond that, next chance for precipitation will be Saturday night
through Monday. But extended models have timing and placement
issues, so no major changes at this time.



.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Fog has developed across the region in areas where winds have
become calm and skies were starting to clear. The lower dew points
behind the cold front were filtering in to the region and wind
speeds were also increasing. These two factors will interfere with
fog formation with visibilities likely improving over the next
couple of hours once the front has moved through. Until then,
expect visibilities to vary from IFR (favored low spots and TAF
sites near rivers such as KSUS) to VFR. After the fog has
dissipated, VFR conditions are anticipated for the remainder of
the TAF period.





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