Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 251818
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
118 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Convection will continue to percolate today invof a slow-moving
cold front. As the previous shift noted, the dew point gradient is
lagging several hours behind the wind shift. The dew point
gradient may serve as an additional focus for SHRA/TSRA dvlpmt
today. The overall trend will be for pcpn to sink southward with
the cdfnt.

Temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees cooler tdy compared to
ydy across most of the CWA except for the far southern CWA and
eastern Ozarks. Those areas may experience some warming before
pcpn sinks southward.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Conditions look unsettled this week. A cold front is forecast to
stall across the region this week, which will act as a focus for
pcpn. The presence of this bdry combined with several impulses
aloft moving through weakly NW flow will lead to periods of
SHRA/TSRA through the week. Pcpn should generally remain across
the southern half of the CWA until Wednesday, when the stalled
front begins to lift back northeastward as a warm front ahead of
an approaching vort max.

Daily high temperatures in the mid-80s to near 90 deg F will be
seasonably warm, and lower dew point values will create less
oppressive conditions compared to what occurred over the last
several days. Peak heat index values are expected to remain in
the 90s this week.

Kanofsky
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Cold front continues to slowly sink south across forecast area. As
of 17z, it looks to be south of taf sites. Kept KUIN and KCOU
dry with north winds becoming light and variable by this evening.
By mid morning on Tuesday, winds to pickup from the northeast. As
for metro area, with boundary still close enough, some storms
continue to develop just east of KSTL, so added VCTS mention
through the afternoon hours. Otherwise, dry, MVFR conditions
expected through 01z Tuesday, then as lower levels dry out more,
cigs to lift to VFR and scatter out. Some patchy fog is possible
towards daybreak in metro area, so added mvfr mention between 08z
and 12z Tuesday.

Specifics for KSTL:
Cold front continues to slowly sink south across forecast area. As
of 17z, it looks to be south of taf sites. With boundary still
close enough, some storms continue to develop just east of KSTL,
so added VCTS mention through the afternoon hours. Otherwise, cigs
to be MVFR through 01z Tuesday, then as lower levels dry out
more, cigs to lift to VFR and scatter out. Some patchy fog is
possible towards daybreak, so added mvfr vsbys between 08z and
12z Tuesday. North winds becoming light and variable by this
evening. By 16z Tuesday, winds to pickup from the northeast.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$
WFO LSX


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