Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 300854

254 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 252 AM CST Mon Nov 30 2015

Scattered light rain continues to lift northward across forecast
area early this morning, mainly along and north of I70. In the
meantime, as upper level low over central Rockies begins to lift
northeastward today will see surface low develop over northeastern
Kansas and track to the north into western Iowa. Precipitation will
be on the increase, with best chances along and north of I70.
Rainfall amounts will be up to a third of an inch, with the highest
amounts over northeast Missouri and west central Illinois.
Otherwise, cloudy conditions to persist with high temperatures only
in the 40s.


.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM CST Mon Nov 30 2015

By tonight, system will be exiting region with rain tapering off
from west to east. Lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s. Then on
Tuesday clouds to begin to clear out with gusty southwest winds
across the region. Highs will be very dependent on how much the
clouds clear out. For now have highs in the low 40s far north to
the low 50s from St. Louis and areas to the south and east.

Tuesday night and Wednesday will see increasing clouds as secondary
shortwave rotates around upper level system over the Great Lakes
region, but remain dry. Colder air to filter in with this shortwave
with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s Tuesday night and highs on
Wednesday in the 40s.

On Thursday, surface ridge to build in with temperatures moderating
through the rest of the work week and into next weekend. By
Saturday, highs will be in the low to mid 50s. A decent upper level
shortwave will slide through on Friday, but moisture will be limited
so no precipitation expected with it.


.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Sun Nov 29 2015

Expect flight conditions to continue to deteriorate tonight along
and east of the Mississippi. Low level flow is already beginning
to become more easterly...cutting off the flow of drier air from
the north. Should see low MVFR and IFR with continuing areas of
light to occasionally moderate rain overspread the entire area by
mid to late morning. IFR conditions with rain will prevail through
the day and into the evening ahead of a cold front. Should see
rain end after the front passes, and ceilings will likely improve
a bit as drier air filters into the area...tho ceilings below 2000
FT still look likely.

Specifics for KSTL:

Should see ceilings drop over the next several hours as the low
level flow turns to the east and southeast. This will stop the
flow of drier air from the north which has kept ceilings above
1000 FT this evening. Expect ceiling to drop below 1000 FT between
08-10Z. Some guidance has ceilings getting quite low on
Monday...perhaps as low as 300-400 FT which would be at or below
alternate minimums. Not ready to forecast ceilings that low, but
wanted to mention that it is a possibility. Low ceilings and
periods of rain will continue on Monday. Should see the rain end
and some slight improvement in ceilings Monday night after a cold
front passes through the region.


Saint Louis     48  37  51  33 /  60  40   0  10
Quincy          42  33  43  30 /  70  40   5  10
Columbia        45  32  47  30 /  60  30   0   5
Jefferson City  46  32  48  29 /  60  30   0   5
Salem           49  41  51  34 /  50  40   5  10
Farmington      49  35  52  31 /  40  30   0   5



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