Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
FXUS63 KLSX 010732
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
232 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
As expected the convection stayed west of the CWA overnight with
parts of northeast Kansas, eastern Nebraska, western Iowa, and
northern Missouri picking up some hefty precipitation totals from
training convection. Model guidance depicts a slow eastward movement
to the convection this morning, with additional storms likely firing
during the afternoon across northwest or central Missouri. The
front that settled to our south yesterday evening will lift north as
a warm front today, allowing temperatures to rise well above average
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
Thunderstorms should increase in coverage and intensity tonight
as next upper level disturbance rounding the base of the large
scale trof at the moment lifts northeast across the southern
Plains into the Midwest. Combine this synoptic lift with a
strengthening low level jet and the result should be some hefty
convection across northern Missouri into west central Illinois.
Training convection could lead to some rainfall totals in excess
of 2 inches and the threat of flash flooding will need to be
monitored. Will not issue a watch due to dry antecedent
conditions. Slight risk of severe thunderstorms from SPC reaches
into central and northeast Missouri. Could certainly be some
reports of large hail and damaging winds with the strongest cells.
Complex of thunderstorms will be weakening and exiting into WFO ILX
area Thursday morning with attention turning to the cold front
moving into Missouri from the west. Thunderstorms again expected to
develop, maybe in waves on Thursday, along and ahead of the
front. These storms will be capable of producing the full gamut
of severe weather, especially given the favorable shear profile.
The exact timing, location, and severity of convection will be
modulated by mesoscale features such as outflow boundaries.
Expect most of the convection to be exiting the area by 06Z Friday
with only a few showers lingering after midnight as the cold front
sweeps across the CWA.
Friday looks windy and much colder as upper level low moving
southeast across the upper Midwest deepens the long wave trof as it
slides east of the CWA. Colder than normal conditions expected on
Saturday with temperatures only rising into the 50s.
Temperatures to slowly warm the remainder of the extended but there
is some indications that this long wave trof will stay parked to our
east, keeping northwest flow alive and well overhead. A disturbance
moving southeast within that flow could bring few sprinkles or rain
showers to the CWA on Sunday/Sunday night.
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014
Ongoing convection continues to track from cntrl and ern KS into
SE NE and on into wrn IA. This should continue most of the night
as the LLJ remains anchored in that area overnight. This
convection will eventually reach the local sites sites but will it
will take until late Wednesday aftn to reach cntrl MO...and nearly
midnight for it to reach the STL metro area. Most of the TAF prd
should be dry and VFR. In the near term...KSUS may once again
have steam fog prior to sunrise. With the wind direction aiming
the fog away form the terminal...not sure how dense it will be.
The SHRA/TSTM threat will continue after the end of the valid prd.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR fcst thru 06Z Thursday...then a chance for SHRA/TSTMs.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 87 69 84 59 / 10 60 60 90
Quincy 81 64 78 54 / 40 90 90 70
Columbia 83 66 79 53 / 50 70 80 60
Jefferson City 84 67 80 55 / 50 60 80 60
Salem 84 66 85 60 / 5 30 40 80
Farmington 85 67 84 58 / 10 20 40 90