Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 290446
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1146 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 950 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

Much of the cloudcover from earlier this evening has dissipated
across the area, and temperatures have fallen to the mid 60s north
to low 70s south. Overnight lows in the mid 50s to around 60
degrees still look on target, and thus, no major changes have been
made to the forecast aside from minor adjustments to account for
near term trends.

JP
&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

Sprawling ridge of high pressure extending from Saskatchewan Canada
southeast through the Great Plains and into the Midwest.  Extensive
area of diurnal stratocumulus has erupted again today, but this
should dissipate quickly this evening.  Expect a mostly clear night
with unseasonably cool temperatures from the mid 50s to around 60 in
the STL Metro area.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

A deep longwave upper TROF will dominate eastern North America thru
the end of the week, resulting in NW flow over our region.  Some
loosening up of this pattern looks to occur for early next week, but
the overall theme remains the same:  an extended period of below
normal temps should be the result with maxes from 80-85 each day
with mins in the 50s and low 60s.  Given how this July has not been
that hot at all, some of our climo sites, such as UIN and COU, could
be in line for a top 5 coolest July on record.

Weak upper level disturbances will trickle down in the NW flow the
next several days, and with marginal levels of moisture and some
favorable lo level instability, low-topped SHRA or even TSRA will be
possible in the afternoon the next couple of days.  See the activity
in northwest IA currently for reference.  It will be a very low PoP
though, with most not receiving anything.  By Thursday, a bit better
moisture but still not great, will allow somewhat deeper convection
to occur and this setup will continue thru the end of the week with
afternoon chances each day.  A drier setup looks set for next week
though.

TES
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

Surface ridge to continue building into the region tonight with
light and variable winds and clear skies. There are still some
lingering mid clouds floating south through forecast area but they
should continue to dissipate. Otherwise, winds to pickup a bit by
mid morning from the northwest with some diurnal cu. Then winds
and clouds to diminish by sunset once again. Some models are
indicating a shortwave could undercut the ridge Tuesday afternoon
with some scattered showers possible. But confidence is low for
now, so kept tafs dry at this time.

Specifics for KSTL:
Surface ridge to continue building into the region tonight with
light and variable winds and clear skies. Otherwise, winds to
pickup a bit by 15z Tuesday from the northwest with some diurnal cu.
Then winds and clouds to diminish by sunset once again. Some
models are indicating a shortwave could undercut the ridge Tuesday
afternoon with some scattered showers possible. But confidence is
low for now, so kept taf dry at this time.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





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