Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 242349

649 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in
the unstable airmass this afternoon ahead of the main band of rain
and storms that is aligned north to south from near IRK to
SGF. Initial tornado threat will be with the MCV structure that is
currently moving north-northeast from Sedalia to Kirksville the
next few hours. Perhaps this activity will skirt our western CWA,
but the larger threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will
arrive a bit later this afternoon and evening. A strong shortwave
will lift northeast across the region with an arcing band of
thunderstorms accompanying it. The enviroment will be supportive
of embedded mesovortices and short lived tornadoes as low level
shear and helicity values will increase as the surface wind begins
to back to the south-southeast as low pressure forms to our west.
This activity should be progressive and therefore the threat of
flash flooding remains low in our CWA.


.LONG TERM: (Memorial Day through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Memorial Day still looks dry as subsidence is expected behind
tonights system. Temperatures should be quite mild with some
sunshine expected. The dry weather will not last long thought as
next shortwave will move through the area Monday night and Tuesday
morning bringing the area another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Timing of convection has me doubting we see much
severe weather on Tuesday.

The pattern remains active the remainder of the week and straight
into next weekend. Chance of thunderstorms each day with mild
temperatures. Severe weather chances will depend on timing of
individual shortwaves and available instability/shear.


.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Expect periods of SH/TS to continue through the evening until a
low pressure system lifts away from the area. MVFR ceilings are
expected to persist for several hours after the rain has ended.
Once ceilings fall to MVFR later tonight, improvement is not
expected until after 12z. Winds will remain southeasterly to
southerly, then turn southwesterly after 06z with the passage of
the surface low. Winds are forecast to back once again and become
southerly after 18z.





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