Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
FXUS63 KLSX 242011
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
211 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 209 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014
Focus thru the period will be temps with no precip anticipated.
System will continue to move newd thru the period with large area of
cloud cover advecting s into the region. Mdls are in somewhat good
agreement keeping at least the nrn half of the CWA cloudy overnight.
The remainder of the CWA is more uncertain with pockets within cloud
deck that may open after sunset. Cloud cover will have a big impact
on temps tonight. Strong winds are also expected to linger longer
than prev anticipated, but gusts shud diminish by mid evening.
Taking this into consideration, have trended temps tonight slightly
warmer than prev forecast.
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014
System to exit region with weak surface ridge building in tonight.
Low temps will be in the low to mid 20s. Then on Tuesday ahead of
next weather system, will see southwest to west winds, but
temperatures to stay below normal in the mid 30s to low 40s.
Tuesday night, clipper system to slide southeast towards forecast
area. So will see an increase in cloud cover as well as low level
moisture. Surface low to track just west of Mississippi river on
Wednesday. So highest pops will be over eastern sections of forecast
area. Precipitation to initially start off as light snow, then as
temperatures warm up during the day on Wednesday, the snow will
become mixed with light rain and change over to mostly rain before
coming to an end Wednesday afternoon. Lows Tuesday night will be in
the mid to upper 20s while highs on Wednesday will be in the upper
30s to upper 40s.
Extended models coming into better agreement with surface ridge
building in for Thanksgiving. So will see dry and colder weather on
Thursday before warming back up for the weekend ahead of next
system. Highs on Thursday will be in the low 30s to low 40s. Still
some timing differences on frontal boundary that will slide through
late this weekend. GFS is faster with front moving through during
the day on Saturday while the ECMWF has front sliding through
Saturday night. Moisture is limited with this system, so feel that
front to move through dry despite GFS showing some light qpf. Highs
by Saturday will be near normal in the 50s, before dropping off into
the 40s on Sunday behind this system.
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014
Cigs will continue to hover near 3 kft thru the afternoon.
Confidence is higher that UIN will remain aob 3 kft thru the
afternoon. Cigs shud actually lower tonight at UIN, but confidence
is low that cigs will fall below 2 kft. Winds will be slow to
diminish this evening, but will eventually do so.
Specifics for KSTL: Cigs will remain near 3 kft thru the
afternoon, but are expected to rise and remain VFR late this
afternoon and overnight. Gusty winds will be slow to diminish this
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 28 39 31 42 / 5 5 5 50
Quincy 22 35 26 38 / 10 5 20 60
Columbia 23 39 29 42 / 5 0 30 40
Jefferson City 24 40 28 43 / 5 0 20 30
Salem 27 37 26 41 / 10 5 0 50
Farmington 26 41 27 44 / 5 0 5 40