Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 021001
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
501 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
IOWA IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A
30KT LOW LEVEL JET.  RAP SHOWS THAT THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.  WILL KEEP
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THIS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY MIXING DOWN THE 850MB TEMPERATURES.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER THE AREA AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT WILL REMAINED STALLED MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
OVER THE STALLED FRONT DURING THIS PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY PROVIDING A DRY DAY.  WENT
WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

STILL EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
OVER CENTRAL IOWA IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING. QUINCY
MAY BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE AND MAINTAINED A VC GROUP FOR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
LATE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW SO KEPT
REMAINING SITES DRY. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AND GUST
AT KCOU AND KUIN AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BUT WILL RELAX
A BIT WITH APPROACH OF NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTERLY BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
DO NOT LOOK TOO HIGH WITH IT AND PASSAGE OF SAID ACTUAL FRONT
LOOKS TO BE ACTUALLY ON MONDAY MORNING.

GOSSELIN

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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