Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 161207
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
607 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 326 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

Surface low currently over Quad Cities and will continue to lift
northeast today away from forecast area. Some lingering light
rain/drizzle to persist in wrap around this morning, mainly along
and east of Mississippi River. Otherwise, sc deck to be very slow to
move out of region, as high RH at 925mb remains entrenched over
forecast area today. As for temperatures, colder air to filter in
with temps still dropping a little this morning before becoming
steady or rise a few degrees by the early afternoon hours.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

It will remain mostly cloudy tonight with lows in the 20s. On
Wednesday we remain under surface ridge with partly cloudy skies and
highs in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Then the forecast for Wednesday night through Thursday is still
tricky to pin down. Surface ridge moves off to the east with upper
trof developing over southwestern US. Will see pieces of energy
eject out of trof and track through forecast area Wednesday night
and Thursday. We will remain in cold air so any precipitation that
does develop with these shortwaves will be in the form of light snow
for most of the area. QPF amounts will be on the light side with
highest amounts over southern sections of our forecast area. Could
see a few tenths of snowfall with highest amounts south of a
Columbia to Fredericktown line.

Beyond that, extended models still have differing solutions on
system that will remain south of forecast area Friday through
Saturday. GFS is a bit further north then ECMWF. For now will not
make major changes to pops through this period. As for pcpn type,
will cold air in place, should be all light snow.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 543 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

Stratus consisting of predominately MVFR cigs blankets the area
and extends well back into the central and north central Plains.
Within this there are some patches of IFR cigs from west central
IL into central MO early this morning and these could impact KCOU
and KUIN for a few hours, but the coverage has been shrinking.
Some light rain may also effect eastern MO and western IL early
this morning. Gusty northwest winds are expected today with the
low level cyclonic flow keeping stratus locked in through at
least early this evening. Clearing should proceed late this
evening in the 03-06z time frame.

Specifics for KSTL:

MVFR flight conditions will persist through this evening with
clearing expected around 06z. Otherwise gusty northwest winds are
expected today with some light rain/drizzle through 14z.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





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