Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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447
FXUS63 KLSX 041014
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
414 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 252 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

Low level cloudiness across southwest IL into the St Louis metro
area will continue to advect eastward out of our forecast area
later this morning. Despite plenty of solar insolation today
temperatures will be relatively cold again, although close to
seasonal normals for early February, as a deep upper level trough
moves eastward through the region. Surface winds will not be strong
and gusty like yesterday with surface ridging extending from the
southern Plains into MO.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

A warming trend will begin on Friday and continue through Sunday.
An upper level trough and associated weak surface trough will move
eastward through our area Friday night and Saturday morning. There
may be patchy light rain or light snow ahead of this feature,
mainly late Friday night, but no accumulation is expected as
moisture will be quite limited. A cold front will move eastward
through our area on Sunday as a deepening upper level trough moves
eastward through the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes
region. This will put an end to the warming trend and lead to much
colder temperatures for Monday through Wednesday.  There will be
the potential for light snow/snow showers mainly Monday and Monday
night as the upper level low/trough deepens over the Great Lakes
region with northwest flow shortwaves dropping through our area
on the backside of the deep trough. Temperatures will be below
seasonal normals Monday through Wednesday as the models forecast
the 850 mb temperatures to fall to around -16 degrees C over much
of our area.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST Wed Feb 3 2016

Deck of MVFR cigs continues to move swd this evening. Main
forecast question will be how much the nrn flank of the deck
dissipates this evening. Have pushed back timing of VFR slightly
as well as clearing. This is perhaps a more pessimistic forecast.
Otherwise, winds will diminish this evening and gradually back
Thurs morning and thru the afternoon. VFR conditions are expected
thru the forecast period once clouds move S of terminals.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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