Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 301953
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
253 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Focus this evening will be on PoPs.

Sfc low continues to move thru the CWA with light SHRA ahead of
the low. At the current rate, the SHRA will be out of the CWA
around or by 00z. However, redevelopment will be possible,
especially across ern portions of the CWA as a secondary fnt
pushes swd. The secondary fnt shud bring colder air, but
additional clouds as well. This presents a bit of a forecast
challenge for temps tonight. Overall, trended twd the cooler
guidance across the N where clouds shud clear late tonight, and
warmer further S where clouds shud linger and fnt may not arrive
by sunrise tomorrow. While temps tonight will be around freezing
across the nrn counties, do not anticipate a hard freeze and
strong winds behind the fnt shud prevent any frost from forming.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Surface low to continue tracking southeast tonight away from
forecast area. Could still see some showers this evening for
southeast Missouri as well as southwestern Illinois. Otherwise, lows
will be in the low 30s to low 40s.

On Friday, more vigorous shortwave to drop south across Illinois on
backside of upper low. Could see some showers develop far east, but
confidence is low so kept this area dry for now. This system will
bring in much colder air as the day progresses as well as gusty
north winds. Temperatures will struggle to rise much, depending on
cloud cover. For now have highs in the mid to upper 40s. Could reach
highs by midday, then see temps remain steady or slowly fall during
the afternoon hours.

Friday night will be the coldest we have seen since mid April. With
the clear skies and winds diminishing, will see lows in the 20s.
Kept freeze watch going for late Friday night/early Saturday
morning.

Temperatures to begin a slow moderation by Sunday as surface ridge
moves off to east and next weather system approaches region. Highs
by Sunday will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Models are a bit
slower in bringing in precipitation with next system, so only have
slight chance pops for far northern portions of forecast area Sunday
night. Best chances of precipitation will be Monday afternoon
through Tuesday before tapering off by Wednesday. Some isolated
thunderstorms will be possible with this system, but expect mostly
showers. Highs will be in the mid 50s to low 60s Monday through
Wednesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

The back edge of a large area of showers currently extends from
KUIN to just west of KCOU at midday. These showers will continue
moving to the east through the afternoon impacting the St. Louis
area terminals with light rain showers and VFR conditions. The
precipitation should be east of all TAF sites by 23z. A cold front
will then pass through the area this evening with a big increase
in northwest winds overnight accompanied by a period of MVFR cigs.
The cigs should clear out on Friday morning with gusty northwest
winds continuing well into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Light rain showers accompanied by VFR flight conditions will
impact the terminal this afternoon and should exit to the east by
23z. Thereafter a cold front will move through this evening with a
big increase in northwest winds overnight, accompanied by a period
of MVFR cigs beginning around 11z. The cigs should clear out near
15z Friday morning with gusty northwest winds continuing well into
the afternoon.

Glass

&&

.CLIMATE:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Halloween Top News of the Day Article on the NWS St. Louis Website
contains Halloween Climate Statistics for St. Louis, Columbia and
Quincy.  (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx)


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     40  47  28  48 /  20   5   0   0
Quincy          33  45  24  46 /   5   5   0   0
Columbia        35  46  25  48 /   5   0   0   0
Jefferson City  37  47  25  50 /   5   0   0   0
Salem           39  48  28  48 /  50  10   0   0
Farmington      38  47  25  48 /  20   5   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR Audrain MO-
     Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
     MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
     Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles
     MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste.
     Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR Adams IL-Bond
     IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
     Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







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