Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 260847
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
347 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015

MCV over west central Missouri will continue to lift northward this
morning with activity associated with it sliding north through
region. Coverage is scattered and will see precipitation taper off
from southwest to northeast today. Because of a bit more cloud cover
and precipitation, highs will only be in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015

Tonight through Thursday...

Next in series of weak upper level shortwaves to lift through region
tonight with chances of showers and thunderstorms through early
Thursday. It will not be continuous rain through this period and we
could see a bit of a break on Thursday before next more significant
system approaches for the weekend. Highs will be in the 80s for the
rest of the work week with lows in the 60s.

Friday through Monday...

Deepening upper level trof over the Rockies will begin to slide
towards region on Friday with increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms for the weekend. Best chances will be Friday night
through Saturday. Cooler air to filter in behind this system with
highs only in the mid 60s to mid 70s by Sunday and Monday.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Primary concern continues to be the area of rain and thunderstorms
moving northeast through southern Missouri at this time. While the
storms have weakened substantially since 00Z, it does look like
they will roll up along the I-44 corridor through 09Z. Trailing
rain will likely affect areas along and south of I-70 through
sunrise. Some marginal ceilings have developed ahead of the rain
as well, with heights around 2,000 ft. Unsure how the storms will
affect ceilings...they may mix out or reinforce and possibly
lower them. Am leaning toward the former as ceilings back over
southern Missouri are mostly VFR. Thunderstorms will likely
produce brief visibility at or below 3SM in moderate rain. A few
showers and possibly some isolated thunderstorms remain likely
further north as the upper level system associated with the storms
continues to move northeast. Expect VFR flight conditions to
prevail north of the I-70 corridor. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail on Tuesday with gusty south-southwest wind. There is a
chance for more storms in the afternoon...mainly east of the
Mississippi and across portions of northern Missouri.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect the line of broken storms moving northeast across the
Ozarks to reach the terminal just after 08Z. Some gusty winds and
brief MVFR flight conditions are likely as the line passes. Unsure
if the storms will bring lingering MVFR ceilings or wash the
ceilings out, but am leaning toward the former as ceilings across
southern Missouri behind the line are mainly VFR. VFR conditions
are expected to prevail on Tuesday with gusty south-southwest
wind. There is a chance for more storms in the afternoon...mainly
east of the Mississippi.

Carney
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





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