Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47
000
FXUS63 KLSX 151115
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
515 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Another wave of freezing rain developed on schedule last night
and has been spreading steadily northward into the LSX CWA early
this morning. Several locations have already reported light
glazing on elevated surfaces, including on surfaces where the ice
had melted yesterday.

With temperatures hovering near 32 F across the southern CWA and
little WAA expected through 18z, the Ice Storm Warning has been
extended until 18z for the counties which were previously set to
expire at 6am. Further updates to the Ice Storm Warning will
depend on the northward progress of the freezing line.

Most locations should rise AOA freezing this afternoon, and
temperatures will not fall much tonight due to cloudiness and WAA
at low levels after the stalled frontal boundary begins to lift
northward as a warm front. Lingering areas of light precip during
the evening hours may occasionally switch back and forth between
rain and freezing rain depending on local temperatures, but little
additional ice accretion is expected.

42

.LONG TERM...  (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 349 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

A disturbance over northwestern Mexico will lift northeastward
into the southern plains by 12z Monday. The surface reflection of
this feature will lift a stalled boundary north as a warm front,
bringing unseasonably warm temperatures to the entire CWA on
Monday. Highs on Monday are forecast to reach the mid 40s to upper
50s, which will help melt any remaining ice accretion from the
recent freezing rain event. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are possible on Monday aftn/eve ahead of the low pressure system`s
cold front, which is expected to move through the area on Monday
night. The post-frontal air mass does not look particularly cold,
and mild temperatures are expected for the rest of the week. Another
disturbance could bring a chance of rain to the area during the
middle or end of the week.

42

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

IFR stratus clouds along with fog will continue through the
period at COU and the St Louis metro area with the cigs dropping
into the IFR category at UIN as well Sunday morning. Patchy
freezing drizzle can be expected in COU and the St Louis metro
area before another batch of freezing rain across southwest MO
moves northeastward into COU and the St Louis metro area late
tonight/early Sunday morning. Temperatures will warm up enough in
COU and the St Louis metro area to change the freezing rain to
rain early Sunday afternoon. The freezing rain should eventually
make it northward into UIN by late Sunday morning. Most of the
precipitation will move out of the taf sites by Sunday evening.
Light north-northeast surface wind will veer around to an
easterly direction Sunday afternoon as the surface ridge over the
northern Plains moves eastward into the Ohio valley region.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: IFR stratus clouds along with fog will continue
through the period. Patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle can be
expected before another batch of freezing rain across southwest
MO moves northeastward into the STL area late tonight/early
Sunday morning. Temperatures will warm up enough to change the
freezing rain to rain early Sunday afternoon.  Most of the
precipitation will move out of STL by Sunday evening. Light
north surface wind will veer around to an easterly direction
Sunday afternoon as the surface ridge over the northern Plains
moves eastward into the Ohio valley region.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Ice Storm Warning until noon CST today for Boone MO-Callaway MO-
     Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
     Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-
     Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis
     City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-
     Washington MO.

     Ice Storm Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for Audrain MO-
     Lincoln MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO.

     Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Knox MO-Lewis
     MO-Marion MO-Shelby MO.

IL...Ice Storm Warning until noon CST today for Bond IL-Clinton IL-
     Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-Saint
     Clair IL-Washington IL.

     Ice Storm Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for Calhoun IL-
     Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

     Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Adams IL-Brown
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.