Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 230543

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
143 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016

Visible satellite imagery late this afternoon is showing a ribbon of
cloud cover sliding over the eastern half of the U.P. with more
extensive cloud cover noted over Ontario and farther west over
Souther Saskatchewan. Water vapor imagery is showing a shortwave
over southern Saskatchewan, which is sliding toward the east and is
expected to move into the U.P. very late tonight into Sunday.
Otherwise, continues to be clear with surface observation showing
temperatures generally in the 50 to 55 degree range.

Tonight: A weak ridge in place this evening will slowly slide off to
the east of the area late tonight. This will keep the area mainly
dry through this time period; however, increasing moisture on the
back side of the departing ridge and ahead of an approaching
shortwave/surface low, will allow cloud cover to steadily increase
through the overnight hours, with a few showers possible far west
late tonight. Temperatures will be warmer than last night due to
increasing cloud cover across the area from the north and northwest.

Sunday: The shortwave is progged to slide from Southern Manitoba
into the Upper Great Lakes region through the day Sunday as a low
pressure system slides just to the south of the U.P. The combination
of these two features along with increased moisture will lead to
chances of rain showers throughout the day, which can be seen by
overlaying deep layer Q-conv and 1000mb-500mb RH. The system will be
fairly fast moving and moisture will not be overly abundant, so the
rain showers that occur shoud be light. Temperatures will be a bit
cooler with highs topping out in the upper 40s to around 50 for most

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016

Will focus discussion on any hazardous weather potential in the 00Z
Mon through day 7 period.

Main potential for hazardous weather is Wed night into Thu morning
as models show a couple of shortwaves phasing over the region.
Diabatic cooling from the deepening system may cool the airmass
enough for snow or a mix of rain and snow. GFS and ECMWF indicate up
to a half inch of QPF over the central and east. A lot of
uncertainty exists with this system given the fact that two
shortwaves would need to phase in order for this scenario to play
out. At this time, confidence in accumulating snow changes and
especially amounts is low.

Confidence remains low for Thu through Sun. Models do suggest
potential for a much colder airmass (850mb temps AOB -8C) moving in
on Sun or Mon, but model variability during that time frame makes
that very uncertain.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 140 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites overnight. Low pressure
will approach the area Sunday morning bringing the possibility of
rain showers at each of the TAF sites along with MVFR ceilings.
Conditions will improve to VFR by Sun evening at IWD as drier air
moves back in behind the low.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 311 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016

Winds will remain below gales through the period. A tightening
gradient between a deep low pressure system moving through Quebec
and a high pressure ridge building into the Plains could lead to a
period of NW winds gusting to 30 knots over eastern Lake Superior
Sunday night into Monday. High pressure will build across the area
Monday afternoon through Wednesday, keeping winds light across Lake

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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