Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 281945
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
345 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A PRETTY TRANQUIL LATE AUGUST FRIDAY IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY. SHORTWAVE OVER IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO
WI OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN SHIELD WILL MAKE IT WITH THIS FEATURE.
IT NOW APPEARS THAT JUST THE FAR SOUTHERN U.P. WILL BE BRUSHED WITH
THE CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  AT THE SAME TIME THE
DISTURBANCE IS PASSING BY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CANADA IN WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BRUSHING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...MAINLY NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

WITH MOST OF THE U.P. IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO THURSDAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST SAT
NIGHT...BUT THINK VAST MAJORITY OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...PRECIP CHANCES ARE
LOW IN THE LONG TERM AS A MID-UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN AND SITS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO ERN CONUS. COULD SEE SOME PRECIP MID-LATE NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVES TRY TO TOP THE RIDGE...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY ANYTHING ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND WILL ALREADY BE ABOVE NORMAL SUN.
HIGHS SUN WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AS 850MB TEMPS START OUT
IN THE MID TEENS C. 850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE
AROUND 20C...RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS 10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING
AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE
MOVES IN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CIGS AT CMX ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT CMX...BUT
PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER LAKES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON MOST DAYS...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT...BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL GET INTO THE 15-20KT RANGE.
LOOKS LIKE THE LIGHTEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRES RIDGE MORE FIRMLY IN CONTROL.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...MZ



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