Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 100715
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
315 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

A VERY QUIET SHORT TERM IS IN STORE ACROSS UPPER MI WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COOL AND CLEAR
NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SOME WELL-INLAND LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
FALLING TO THE UPPER 30S.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A CLUSTER OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
PIVOTING AROUND SOUTHERN JAMES BAY WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL OF THE WAVES HAVE PASSED OVER THE CWA DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE LAST ONE APPROACHING FROM JUST NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ONLY CLIP EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND EASTERN UPPER MI THIS EVENING AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD
WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF SHORTWAVES. ONGOING ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
THUS DIMINISH ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL UPPER MI AND ALONG LAKE MI
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS DEEPER MOISTURE
EXITS TO THE EAST. A SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER FORMING OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI AND NORTHERN LOWER MI LATE
TONIGHT. CLEARING SKIES...PWAT VALUES LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES
INLAND...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TOWARD THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...WITH 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AND EVEN
SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER INITIAL DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. OTHER THAN SOME
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIN CIRRUS
ACROSS THE WEST...SKIES SHOULD BE SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES...AND
SHOULD PUSH FARTHEST INLAND ALONG LAKE MI.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM IS THE EXPECTED ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER WRN CANADA
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO JUST W OF HUDSON BAY BY 00Z SAT BEFORE
SHIFTING S TO THE CENTRAL MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER BY 00Z MON. DURING
THIS TIME...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH...ONE FRI
NIGHT/SAT AND ANOTHER ON SUN NIGHT. MODEL AGREEMENT IS IMPROVING IN
SHOWING THE LOW MOVING TO OR NEAR THE WRN CWA BY 00Z TUE BEFORE
SHIFTING TO E OF THE CWA BY 18Z TUE AND INTO NRN QUEBEC BY 0Z0
THU...ALTHOUGH DEEP TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN
CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL COOL OFF AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.
COLDEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE TUE AS THE LOW SHIFTS
ACROSS THE CWA AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 4C. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH INSTABILITY
RESULTING FROM DAYTIME SFC HEATING BENEATH COLD MID/UPPER LEVELS
WILL LEAD TO A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIRMASS OVERHEAD...HIGH TEMPS
MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 50 IN SOME SPOTS ON TUE...WHICH WOULD BE
RECORD BREAKING FROM A MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURE PERSPECTIVE.

FRI WILL SEE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND
INSTABILITY ON THE LOW END /BELOW 300J/KG/...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS
NOT EXPECTED.

THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FRI NIGHT AND SAT WILL HAVE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...BUT
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO JUST GENERAL
THUNDER IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THE FRONT COULD SLOW DOWN...WHICH /DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND
EARLIER PRECIPITATION/ COULD RESULT IN GREATER INSTABILITY OVER
SCENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE LAKE BREEZES WOULD HELP TO TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BY 40-45KTS. FAR FROM
CERTAIN...BUT SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD OCCUR OVER THE SCENTRAL IF
EVERYTHING WORKS OUT.

SUN/SUN NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP...WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS
AND EARLY PRECIPITATION. IF ENOUGH CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION CAN
OCCUR...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OR 45-55KTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER
STORMS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS
TO ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH LOW-END VFR CUMULUS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT
WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
EAST...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE TROUGH CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE
WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH PASSES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEHIND THIS TROUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KLUBER






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