Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 270920
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
520 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

MUCH OF THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS WITH THE SHORTWAVE
QUICKLY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA AT
07Z...BUT THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...ONE
STRETCHING FROM ISLE ROYALE TO LITTLE FALLS MINNESOTA AND THE OTHER
FROM WESTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY TO EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN. EVEN THOUGH
THE 00Z KMPX RAOB INDICATED DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUDS BASE...RAIN
HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND UNDER MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS AND
GENERALLY PRODUCING ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 0.05IN OF RAIN AS IT
HAS MOVED THROUGH MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO THE EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES
THROUGH THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN BY 12Z AND OUT OF THE ENTIRE
AREA BY 15Z. THE 04Z/05Z HRRR RUNS HAVE HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON
PRECIP AND WEIGHTED THE POP FORECAST TOWARDS THAT FOR THE FIRST
6HRS. THEREFORE...HAVE SHOWN SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING AND QUICKLY COMING TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED IN MINNESOTA WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA AND LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL DAY ACROSS THE U.P.

EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE MID CLOUDS
DEPART...AS A POCKET OF MOISTURE AROUND 850MB OR 4KFT SEEN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS PAST EVENING AND KCMX OBS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATES. WITH THE LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BE INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
GENERALLY OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OVER THE WEST THIRD (MID-UPPER 60S) AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST (65-71).

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES (JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE). THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
PWATS AROUND 45 PERCENT OF NORMAL WILL LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. HAVE THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE LOWER
40S TO UPPER 30S...WHICH IS A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD
RAWS SITES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S AND DID DROP A FEW OF THEM TO THOSE
VALUES (WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FROST). WILL CONTINUE THE
MENTION OF PATCHY RADIATIONAL/GROUND FOG FOR TONIGHT...BUT DON/T
EXPECT IT TO BE TOO THICK DUE TO THE EXISTING DRY AIR. THE PLACES
WHERE IT SHOULD BE THE THICKEST WOULD BE IN ANY LOW SPOTS OR NEAR
LAKES (DUE TO THEIR WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES).

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

THRU THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A LOW AMPLITUDE
PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SRN CANADA. A
WEAKER SRN BRANCH FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL CAUSE ISSUES WITH
REGARD TO PCPN OVER THE UPPER LAKES...DEPENDING ON INTERACTION OF
SHORTWAVES WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW TO THE N. RIGHT NOW...THE
SRN BRANCH FEATURES A TROF AND WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES. EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLOW WILL AMPLIFY SOME AS A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROF MOVES INTO THE NW CONUS AND THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD.
OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND NORMAL TO
A BIT BLO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BRIEF WARMING WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF PROGRESSING E ACROSS
THE NW AND NCNTRL CONUS. PCPN FCST IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF PCPN THRU THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF SRN BRANCH SHORTWAVES. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF PCPN SHOULD OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE NW/NCNTRL CONUS.

BEGINNING THU/FRI...ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
SRN BRANCH TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. WITH NRN STREAM
TROFS MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND...
THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TO MAKE
SOME NORTHWARD PROGRESS. MODELS HAVE OVERALL MOVED INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION LIFTING N AND SPREADING PCPN
INTO UPPER MI THU NIGHT/FRI. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES AS THE GEM/ECMWF/NAM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE SPREADING MAIN
AREA OF PCPN MORE SQUARELY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE GFS IS FOCUSED
MORE TO THE S AND E. GIVEN TRENDS AND GFS SOMEWHAT ON ITS OWN...
RAISED POPS SOME FOR LATER THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WITH LIKELY POPS
FROM THE SCNTRL TO THE ERN FCST AREA. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE UPWARD
TREND IF NEXT ROUND OF MODELS STAYS ON TRACK. INSTABILITY IS RATHER
LIMITED. ONLY INCLUDED THUNDER SCNTRL AND E. AFTER SOME PATCHY FOG
EARLY THU...SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. MIXING
TO 850-800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS THU WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE LOW/MID 70S AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING.

OVER THE WEEKEND...FCST HAS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN AS THERE IS A
TREND FOR THE MAIN ENERGY CURRENTLY IN THE SRN ROCKIES TROF TO LIFT
FARTHER N. ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC WAVE IS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS SRN WI
AND THRU NRN LWR MI. GIVEN TRENDS ALONG WITH DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG
00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...WILL LINGER CHC POPS OVER THE SE HALF OF
THE FCST AREA FRI NIGHT...THEN SPREAD CHC POPS BACK N AND W SAT/SAT
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE SUN SHOULD DRY OUT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE ARRIVING
BTWN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND AHEAD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT TROF
DEVELOPING INTO THE NW CONUS.

AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF OVER THE NW CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...
BRINGING A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA. FOR THIS FAR OUT IN THE
MODEL RUNS...AGREEMENT IS GOOD ON TIMING FRONT. THE ECMWF HAS
NOTABLY TRENDED FASTER TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS TYPICALLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE...AND THE GEM OFFERS SIMILAR TIMING. THESE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST FRONT CROSSING UPPER MI MON AFTN/NIGHT. SO IT LOOKS LIKE
LABOR DAY MIGHT TURN WET WITH SHRA AND TSTMS SPREADING E ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT UNTIL AROUND
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT IWD...LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH SO THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE MID
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO WINDS STAYING BELOW 15KTS. THIS HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A COUPLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE TROUGHS WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF







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