Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 012112
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
412 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH FROM NRN HUDSON BAY INTO ERN CANADA
RESULTING IN WNW NRN STREAM FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. TO THE
SOUTH...A VIGOROUS SHRTWV TROUGH INTO NRN IL WAS BRINGING HEAVY SNOW
FROM IA INTO THE SRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...DRY NE FLOW PREVAILED
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI BETWEEN A 1036 MB HIGH OVER ERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND A 1003 MB LOW OVER ERN IL. 900 MB TEMPS AROUND -22C
PROVIDED ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR PERSISTENT LES. HOWEVER...INVERSION
HEIGHTS AROUND 3K FT AND A DGZ BELOW 1K FT HAS LIMITED INTENSITY AND
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...EXPECT THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK TO NRLY AS THE IL LOW
MOVES TO THE E AND THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. WITH A
RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELD...LAND BREEZE EFFECTS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALIZED CIRCULATIONS OR AREAS OF CONVERGENCE WILL
BE MORE LIKELY. THE HIGHER RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT A BAND MAY
DEVELOP THAT WOULD AFFECT FAR ERN OR WRN ALGER COUNTY TONIGHT.
INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAINING AROUND 3K FT SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL TO A FEW INCHES. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SHORELINE PARALLEL
BAND NEAR THE WEST BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHERE IT MAY AFFECT THE
SHORELINE IS LOW.

BESIDES THE LES...TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FAR ERN COUNTIES AND ALONG THE WI BORDER OF THE INTERIOR WEST.
FORTUNATELY...WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LAKE MODERATION/LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS...WIND CHILLS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE -10 TO -20
RANGE...NOT REACHING ADVY CRITERIA.

MON...SOME LINGERING LES IN THE N TO NW SNOWBELTS AS 900 MB TEMPS
WILL BE AROUND -22C WILL BE PUSHED OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER NRN MN INTO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE
OH VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE 10-15F RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

COLD CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS
RIDGING FROM EASTERN RUSSIA AND THE BERING SEA TO THE WESTERN CONUS
ALLOWS TROUGHING TO EXPAND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FM EASTERN CANADA.
RIDGING BEGINS TO FLATTEN BY END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUGGESTING
THAT TEMPS WILL BOUNCE BACK TOWARD NORMAL OR MAYBE ABOVE BEYOND NEXT
WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS FOR A COUPLE DAYS WILL STAY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BUT OTHERWISE WILL BE IN THE TEENS. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE. MAY HAVE
TO DEAL WITH WIND CHILL ISSUES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY MORNING.
COLDEST DAYS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS CORE OF ARCTIC AIR WITH
H85 TEMPS BLO -25C SWEEPS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WIDESPREAD SNOW
CHANCES STILL ON THE LOWER SIDE IN THIS PATTERN. FOR LAST COUPLE
DAYS...PRIMARY EXTENDED MODELS OF ECMWF/GFS AND GEM-NH ALONG WITH GFS
ENSEMBLES HAVE HINTED AT BETTER SHOT OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER
LAKES REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA. DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE SORTED OUT THOUGH AS MODEL
CONSISTENCY IS LACKING.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPP RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY EVENING. A TROUGH WILL
BE APPROACHING LK SUPERIOR FM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WEAK SHORTWAVE/PV
ANAMOLY SLIDES THROUGH AND SOUNDINGS EVEN INLAND SHOW MARGINAL DEEP
MOISTENING H8-H5 WITH WEAK LIFT. LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES MOST AREAS
LATER MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BIGGER IMPACT MAY OCCUR
OVER NORTHERN KEWEENAW PENINSULA AS BAND OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
HEAVY LES COULD BE ONGOING. LIFT FM THE DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH H85
TEMPS NEAR -20C YIELDS 1000-850MB LAPSE RATES OVER 9C/KM WHERE
STRONGER CONVERGENCE COMES TOGETHER. LOCAL HIRES WRF MODEL SEEMS
REASONABLE SHOWING OVER 0.05 INCH OF QPF PER HOUR IN HEAVIER
BANDING. SO WITH SLR/S OVER 20:1...COULD BE OVER 1 INCH OF SNOW PER
HOUR...WHICH FITS THIS TYPE OF LES REGIME. DOES APPEAR THAT WITH
ARRIVAL OF TROUGH THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL NOT LAST PROBABLY MORE THAN
A FEW HOURS. WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH WILL BLOW/DRIFT SNOW AS WELL.
OVERALL...SEEMS LIKE MODELS/PATTERN RECOGNITION POINTS TO ADVY FOR
TIP OF KEWEENAW MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE LES SINKS ACROSS REST OF
KEWEENAW AND BECOMES MORE MULTIBAND IN TYPE. CONTINUE TO MENTION IN
HWO.

ONCE THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND LARGER SCALE FORCING EVADES...EXPECT NW FLOW LES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW INVERSIONS BLO 4KFT AND NEUTRAL TO ANTICYLONIC
FLOW WILL LIMIT INTENSITY OF LES DESPITE ALL OF THE CLOUD BEING
WITHIN THE DGZ. FLUFFY ACCUMS EXPECTED BUT LOW IMPACT AS WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY SPREADS LGT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM FARTHER NORTH WITH THE QPF
COMPARED TO THE MORE CONSISTENT ECWMF/GFS AND GEM-NH. WILL SHOOT FOR
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST AWAY FM THE LK SUPERIOR LES.

PRIMARY HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE TIED TO LAKE EFFECT AND
BLSN/DRSN THAT RAMPS UP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS IS IN WAKE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. INVERSION HEIGHTS RISING TO AT LEAST 8KFT AND LAKE
EQL OVER 10KFT POINT TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. DUE TO DEPTH OF COLD
THOUGH...SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST OF THE LAKE EFFECT CONVECTIVE LAYER
WILL BE AT TEMPS BLO -20C. SO...LOOKING AT SMALL SNOW FLAKES GOOD AT
REDUCING VSBY...BUT NOT PILING UP A LOT OF SNOW. WINDS IN THE MIXED
LAYER 25-30 KTS...SO BLSN/DRSN WILL BE PREVALENT WITH THE FINE SNOW
FLAKES. EXPECT THERE WILL NEED TO BE SOME WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AWAY FM THE LES AND BLSN/DRSN...APPEARS CONDITIONS OVER AT LEAST
INTERIOR WEST WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT READINGS 20 TO 25 BLO
ZERO WHICH IS CLOSE TO...BUT NOT QUITE REACHING CRITERIA OF 25 TO 35
BLO. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO...BUT IS NOT APPEARING
TO BE AN OVERWHELMING LOW WIND CHILL EVENT.

ANOTHER TROUGH...REALLY MORE OF A WARM FRONT ALOFT...SLIDES OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND LK SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTN THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WINDS BACKING SW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN LOW-LEVELS WILL PUSH
LES OVER LK SUPERIOR AND WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE TOO MUCH WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO RESULT IN LES OFF LK MICHIGAN FM KISQ TO KERY. MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WEAK LIFT MAY SQUEEZE OUT LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES
FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

CONSISTENCY NOT THERE YET FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SO WILL RUN WITH
FORECAST CONSENSUS ATTM. BEST CHANCES OF A WIDESPREAD SNOW PROBABLY
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY FOR THAT ON SATURDAY. FRONT
WILL BE IN THE VCNTY AND LATEST INDICATIONS FM MODELS AND HAND DRAWN
PROG FM WPC SHOWS IT MAINLY SOUTH OF AREA ON SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCES
FOR LES IN AN EASTERLY FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH OCNL IFR VSBY IN LAKE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT KSAW AND KCMX THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN
A NE-N FLOW. KIWD WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS
WINDS SHIFT FROM ENE TO MORE ONSHORE NNE FLOW. WITH ONSHORE FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT MVFR CLOUD DECK AND POSSIBLE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT KIWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME WEST AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH ON TUESDAY.
WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY AT OR BLO 30 KTS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER
PORTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NW
WINDS COULD REACH LOW-END GALES IN GUSTS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME...ESPECIALLY FOR EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. WINDS BACK SW ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH THAT CROSSES ON FRIDAY...THEN
BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD
STAY AT OR BLO 30 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA



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