Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 240717
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
317 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

A 1029mb SFC high over northern Ontario and an upper ridge to the
west will keep most area dry through Sat as the high slides to the
Ontario/Quebec border and the ridge moves overhead. Expect to see
mostly elevated precipitation over the west tonight as isentropic
ascent and shortwave energy bring precip over a very dry low-mid
level layer already in place. Should see precip hitting western Lake
Superior, but only some sprinkles at best over western Upper MI.
Lows tonight will fall to the low to mid 40s over the interior
central and east. Highs on Sat will be in the mid 60s to 70.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

Nam has a trough in the northern and central plains 12z Sun with a
shortwave ridge over the upper Great Lakes and ridging in the
western U.S. The trough moves east into the upper Great Lakes Sun
night into Mon and then moves into the lower Great Lakes Mon night.
Deeper moisture and 850-500 mb q-vector convergence arrive on Sun
and last through Sun night with Mon having the wraparound part of
system affecting the area. Did not make too many changes to the
going forecast and have likely pops overspreading the cwa Sun into
Sun night and then chance pops on Mon with wraparound part of storm
coming through.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF are showing much better agreement at
96 hours with both having a closed 500 mb low east of Lake Superior
in Ontario 12z Tue and ridging into the Rockies and southern plains.
By 12z Wed, the trough is over the lower Great Lakes and the ridge
is into the Plains. The 500 mb ridge then builds into the upper
Great Lakes 12z Thu into Fri. Confidence is now a bit higher due to
better agreement between the GFS and ECMWF now. Temperatures look to
be above normal for this forecast period. Also looks a bit drier now
starting Wed afternoon through Friday.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 132 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

Despite some mid/hi clds invading the Upr Lks to the ne of a slowly
aprchg warm fnt, a dry e veering sse flow arnd hi pres moving e thru
Ontario wl result in predominant VFR conditions at the TAF sites
this fcst period. Although there could be a --shra at IWD early this
mrng under some thicker clds, there wl be no vsby restriction.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 350 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

NE flow over Lake Superior with SFC trough over the Lower Midwest
and SFC ridge building in from Canada will support some higher wind
gusts of 20-25 knots mainly over the western half of the lake this
evening. As the Canadian high builds more over the Upper Lakes,
winds will dip below 20 kts late tonight into Saturday night.
Southerly winds will increase Sun afternoon into Sun night to 25 to
30 knots over mainly the north central and eastern part of the lake
as a low pressure trough approaches from the west.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...Titus


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