Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMQT 291953
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
353 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A SFC
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO ERN UPPER MI. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND S OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THUNDER
LESS WIDESPREAD IN THE SHOWERS THAT ARE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH ACROSS
SCENTRAL UPPER MI AND NERN WI. 500-1000J/KG OF SKINNY CAPE AND 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 20-25KTS ARE ANALYZED...HIGHEST ALONG THE SRN/SWRN
BORDER OF THE CWA. TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THE CONVECTION TO SINK S
WITH THE SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH AND DWINDLE AS DAYTIME HEATING
DIMINISHES. THINK THAT SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE STORMS...BUT COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO SEE NEARLY
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

ADDED FOG OVER MAINLY ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TOMORROW AS FOG IS
SEEN ON SATELLITE AND THE GRAND MARAIS WEBCAM...ALONG WITH A SHIP
OBSERVATION.

SIMILAR SETUP FOR WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE
OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500J/KG /AGAIN WITH
SKINNY CAPE/ WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN TODAY...BUT 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS
TO BE 30-35KTS...SO EXPECTING SIMILAR NON-SEVERE STORMS FOCUSING
OVER MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS/CANADA...EXPECT THE FLOW ALOFT TO BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES BEING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE THE
COOLEST ON WEDNESDAY...AROUND 8C...BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 12C ON
THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO
HAVE THE COOLEST HIGHS OF THE WORK WEEK (IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S). WHILE HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
EXPECT A GRADUAL TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...EXPECT GENERALLY DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW COULD LEAD TO A
COUPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON
WEDNESDAY...THINK COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED (AND OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL OR MAYBE EAST) AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY BRUSHES
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR BUT THERE IS A POCKET OF MOISTURE THAT
ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY BETWEEN 800-700MB. THUS...WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MAINLY THE CENTRAL
AND EAST AWAY FROM THE STABILITY OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE ARE HINTS
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THURSDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A LITTLE BETTER FOCUS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONGER LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON FRIDAY (HIGH END CHANCES)...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH DURING
THE DAY. IT APPEARS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND FRIDAY/S TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO
A DRY SATURDAY. THUS...HAVE CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WAVE MAY PROVIDE
SOME REAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO MONDAY.

FINALLY...FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL...MLCAPE VALUES ARE BELOW 500 J/KG
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CAP AT SLIGHT CHANCES.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY HAVE MLCAPE VALUES A TOUCH HIGHER OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...SO WILL HAVE CHANCES THERE AND SLIGHT ELSEWHERE WHERE
THERE ARE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE HELPED BY THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES STILL WEAK (15-20KTS) NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME SMALL HAIL IN
ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WENT WITH VCSH AT CMX AND SAW BECAUSE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE S OF THOSE AIRPORTS. AT IWD...WENT WITH VCSH BECAUSE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THEY HAVE NOT DEVELOPED YET...BUT BETTER
COVERAGE IS QUITE POSSIBLE THERE.

EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL SITES TONIGHT...BUT AM UNCERTAIN ON
THE EXTENT OF THE DEVELOPMENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.