Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 280931
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
431 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW TO UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY
IS NOW LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SOO AND IS QUICKLY LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST. THIS QUICK DEPARTURE AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND NVA
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE HAS LED TO THE SNOW QUICKLY DIMINISHING FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW IS STILL FALLING
OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AND THERE AREA SOME SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. EXPECT BOTH THE
SYNOPTIC AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TAKING A QUICK LOOK BACK AT THIS
OVERACHIEVING SYSTEM ACROSS BOTH WISCONSIN AND THE U.P....MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN SAW SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE. BUT OVER
SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY...A POCKET OF WARM AIR PUSHED FARTHER
NORTH THAN EXPECTED AND LED TO PRIMARY RAIN AND NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE CITY OF MENOMINEE. BUT HEADING 40 MILES TO THE
NORTH IN HERMANSVILLE THEY RECEIVED 7.5 INCHES OF SNOW. THE MAIN
CULPRIT SEEMS TO BE THE UNDER-PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS WITH QPF
AMOUNTS AND LOCATION. IN FACT...LOOKING BACK AT THE LAST 4 RUNS OF
THE SREF NOT ONE HAD LIQUID EQUIVALENT VALUES REACHING VALUES THAT
WE RECEIVED HERE AT OUR OFFICE. A QUICK LOOK AT SOME OF THE OTHER
SITES ACROSS THE AREA SHOWS A SIMILAR TREND.

BACK TO THE FORECAST. BEHIND THIS LOW...EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING AS THAT POCKET OF DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE NOSES NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING...BEFORE A SECONDARY TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE REST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY.
THIS SECONDARY TROUGH WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR (850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -18C ON SUNDAY) WHICH WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKE OVERNIGHT AND THE
COLDER AIR SURGES IN...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN (GENERALLY NORTHERN HOUGHTON AND
KEWEENAW COUNTIES). IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH
NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL BRUSH NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE
KEWEENAW...POTENTIALLY ADDING SOME LARGER SCALE FORCING. AS THAT
COLDER AIR MOVES IN...INVERSION HEIGHTS OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
WILL RISE TO 9-10KFT AND LEAD TO MUCH OF THE CLOUD LAYER BEING
WITHING THE DGZ. ALL OF THAT IS SUPPORTIVE OF A PERIOD OF MODERATE
SNOW IN THE KEWEENAW AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
INDICATIONS OF SOME ENHANCED CONVERGENCE RIGHT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN ON THE WIND DIRECTIONS...AS THERE ARE SUBTLE VARIATIONS IN
THE AMOUNT OF WESTERLY COMPONENT. THAT WESTERLY WINDS IS AN
IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR THAT AREA...AS IT CAN QUICKLY INCREASE THE
FETCH BY AROUND 20 MILES. SINCE THE TREND IN THE MODELS RECENTLY IS
FOR MORE OF A WESTERN WIND DIRECTION INITIALLY BEFORE SWITCHING MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST...WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND
FOCUS THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OVER NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY. WHERE
THE HEAVIEST CONVERGENT BAND OF SNOW OCCURS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW TO SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF AN INCH AN HOUR OF FLUFFY SNOWFALL.
THUS...HAVE 1 TO ALMOST 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN HOUGHTON
COUNTY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN AS THE TROUGH SWEEPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY WIND DIRECTION AND WILL FOCUS
THE POPS IN THOSE FAVORED LOCATIONS. OVER THE WEST...THE DEPARTURE
OF THE TROUGH WILL LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS TOWARDS 5-6KFT BUT STILL
KEEP MUCH OF THE CLOUD WITHIN THE DGZ. SO EXPECT THE INTENSITY TO
DIMINISH...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE SOME FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
4 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. WITH
THE FORECASTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ISSUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HOUGHTON TO COVER THE MODERATE LAKE EFFECT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

MEANWHILE OVER THE EAST THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR AND BETTER
MOISTURE WILL BE DELAYED TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN WILL
INCREASE POPS FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THAT PERIOD. FIRST ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE EAST OF MUNISING WITH THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WIND AND THEN TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS BY
EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY COLD CONDITIONS WITH PERSISTENT LES.

ON MONDAY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS ALL BUT FL...STRETCHING
FROM FAR N CANADA THROUGH QUEBEC...AND A SECONDARY LOW ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW. LOOK FOR PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL SMALL
DISTURBANCES KEEPING OFF AND ON LES GOING OVER W UPPER MI...AND
MAINLY E OF MUNISING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE FIRST OF MANY SHORTWAVES WILL BE IMPACTING OUR LOCAL WEATHER
MONDAY...PUSHING ACROSS MN AND N MN MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND SINKING
ACROSS UPPER MI LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS TIME
850MB TEMPS WILL ALSO DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES C TOO FROM AN
AVERAGE -18 TO -20.

KEEPING THE THEME GOING...THE BACK EDGE OF THE 500MB TROUGH WILL
TIGHTEN TO OUR NW ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE N CANADIAN TROUGH
SINKING/EXTENDING ACROSS E HUDSON BAY. THIS SHOULD BASICALLY ACT TO
DOUBLE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW PLACES FAVORED BY THE NW WINDS...LIKE CMX
WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE RECEIVED EVERY 6HRS. 850MB TEMPS WILL COOL
ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES C TO AROUND -22 BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE
A COLD DAY /SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS/...FOLLOWED BY A COLD NIGHT.
WITH SOME CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED S CENTRAL AND ALONG THE WI BORDER
AS SFC WINDS BECOME MORE OUT OF THE W AND SW...-10C IS WELL WITHIN
REACH.

BRIEF WAA IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY /NEW YEAR/S EVE/...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS PUSHING OFF MUCH OF THE S SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON WSW
WINDS. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND -17C...OR EVEN WARMER
AROUND -14C OFF THE 28/00Z GFS. THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCIES ON
THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF A SHORTWAVE THAT THE 27/00Z ECMWF HAS DIGGING
ACROSS S LOWER MI BY 00Z THURSDAY...RESULTING IN MORE CLOUD
COVER/LES SNOW AND COOLER CONDITIONS. THE GFS IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE...KEEPING MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY N OF THE CWA. WILL GO WITH
A BLENDED/CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE 45-60KT 850MB WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...STRONGEST 18Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY. OTHER THAN STRONG
WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND PORTIONS OF THE MORE EXPOSED KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...IT IS UNKNOWN HOW MUCH OF THAT WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT
TO THE SFC. ALSO DURING THIS TIME THE 500MB LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW
WILL HAVE SUNK ACROSS S CANADA...AND THE N LOW WILL HAVE SLID ACROSS
MUCH OF HUDSON BAY.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOK A BIT MORE INTERESTING. THE GFS INDICATES
THAT WE LOSE THE STRONG INVERSION THAT/S BASICALLY BEEN SET UP
800-850MB....AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN A BROAD DGZ STRETCHING FROM
NEARLY 900-600MB. WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE 500MB LOW IN THE SW PUSHING ACROSS THE S PLAINS
AND NUDGING A SFC LOW UP THE MS VALLEY...TO AROUND CENTRAL/S LOWER
MI BY 18Z SATURDAY...THEN RAPIDLY DEEPENING ACROSS S ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 28/00Z HAS COME IN STRONGER AND FARTHER E
WITH THE LOW COMPARED TO THE GFS. INCREASED POPS A BUT FRIDAY NIGHT
GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT...WITH FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
OTHERWISE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

A TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LES OVER MAINLY THE KEWEENAW.
JUST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP WITH
THE WESTERLY FLOW BTWN 06Z-08Z. THIS MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL...SO HAVE BROUGHT VSBYS BELOW ALTERNATE LANDING
MINS. ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE AT KCMX AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BUT BRING A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW AT KIWD. AT KSAW...EXPECT THE VFR CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT RESIDUAL CLOUDS/PCPN FROM
THE UPSTREAM LAKE EFFECT WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AROUND NOON ON SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

A LOW JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SOO WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LOW...THERE WILL BE
A PERIOD OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30KTS OVER THE
EASTERN LAKE. BUT THEN A WEAK RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA AND
BACK WINDS TO THE WEST UP TO 20KTS. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THE NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
TO 25KTS AND MAYBE EVEN 30KTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25KTS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS
BETWEEN A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND A LOW OVER
NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS LOW WILL ROTATE A TROUGH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE TIGHTENING OF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL LEAD TO WESTERLY
GALES OF 35-40KTS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ002-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF






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