Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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146
FXUS63 KMQT 301950
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
350 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

Upper Michigan continues to find itself on the NW fringe of a slow-
moving low pressure system across the mid-Mississippi valley this
afternoon. Precip has been struggling to push NW through the day as
low-level moisture encounters a rather dry column to the north.
Periods of light rain/snow have occurred generally SE of a line from
IMT to Munising, with a few flurries/sprinkles reaching the north-
central this afternoon.

A secondary surge of moisture associated with the right entrance of
an upper jet streak and disorganized H8-H7 low will spread NE
through this evening. A brief uptick in precip coverage is expected
east of the aforementioned line, but QPF should remains fairly low.

Surface winds will gradually back overnight through Friday.
Corresponding dry advection will erode low clouds from the north,
with most sunny skies likely across most of the CWA by early
afternoon. However, light precip in the form of snow or possibly
drizzle/freezing drizzle may linger east of a line from MNM to ERY
well into the morning as the low slowly shifts eastward.

High temps on Friday will be dependent on how quick cloud cover
erodes, but interior west half locations will likely top out in the
low 50s. Abundant mixing along with current obs north of Lake
Superior showing dew points in the teens supports lowering RH across
the interior west half Friday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

Main focus of the extended forecast will be precipitation chances
this weekend into early next week and again, possibly a bigger
system, for the middle of next week. Overall confidence in model
solutions through the extended is a bit below average in general due
to the split flow pattern in place, so expect some variability in
timing and placement of precipitation.

Friday night through Saturday night: Drier air and a weak ridge will
slide through the area through this time period allowing for partly
cloudy skies across the U.P. The cloud cover will begin to slowly
increase ahead of the next approaching system by late Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night. At this point, not expecting much in
the way of precip as moisture will be limited. The best chance of
seeing sprinkles will be over the north half and over Lake Superior
during the Saturday afternoon into Saturday night time period.

Sunday night through Monday: Low pressure sliding into and then
across Ontario through this time period, is progged to drag a cold
front across the area by Monday afternoon. Along and ahead of the
front, forcing is expected to increase, allowing for widespread
precipitation to develop across the U.P. Aloft, a shortwave sliding
across the Upper Great Lakes is progged to take on more of a
negative tilt as it slides through, helping to intensify the system
a bit and increase precipitation potential. Temperature profiles are
warm enough to keep the precipitation in the form of rain across the
CWA as the system slides through. At this point, models are painting
out between a tenth and a quarter inch of rainfall by Monday
afternoon.

Monday night through the extended: A brief break in the
precipitation is expected Monday night through Tuesday night as a
brief high pressure ridge and drier air slides across the area.
Attention then turns to the potential for a stronger storm to
develop over the Central Plains. The GFS/EC/Canadian models are all
in fairly decent agreement with developing the system and moving it
across Lower Michigan; however, there are differences in the exact
track of the system as expected this far out. Depending on the exact
track of the low, some locations across the Upper Great Lakes could
end up seeing a late season heavy wet snow on the colder side and a
decent rainfall on the warm side. The latest model runs have shifted
the low a bit farther south, but the exact details will need to be
ironed out as the event gets closer. At this point it is best to
keep the mention of a potential storm without getting too specific.
It does bear watching as model solutions to this point are
painting out some similarities. &&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 143 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

Low-level moisture advecting northwestward will bring MVFR ceilings
to KSAW, and likely KIWD, through tonight. There is also a chance
KCMX will see MVFR ceilings for a period overnight, but confidence
is low at this time. Brief periods of light snow will affect KSAW
this afternoon and possibly into early evening, with only very brief
IFR vis possible. Otherwise, backing winds will advect much drier
low-level air from the north late tonight through Friday morning,
resulting in VFR conditions at all sites by Friday afternoon.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 347 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

ENE winds up to 25 kts are expected into Friday under the sharper
pressure gradient between slowly departing Hudson Bay high pressure
and a slow moving low pressure to the southeast. Winds for later
Friday through Tuesday will generally be under 20 kts as a weaker
pressure gradient becomes established across the western Great Lakes.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kluber
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Kluber
MARINE...Kluber



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